Dear MEF Subscriber:
Happy New Year and thank you subscribing to the Middle East Forum. I write to request that you consider making a donation to support our work. For a 2022 tax deduction, we can accept credit card donations received by Dec. 31 and checks dated Dec. 31 (please click here to donate).
As ever, 2023 promises to be an interesting year for the Middle East and Islamism. Here are some predictions from Forum staff: - Gregg Roman, Director – (i) Israel will launch a ground incursion in Lebanon or Syria, or both, to end attacks from those areas; (ii) Israel and Saudi Arabia will sign an economic cooperation agreement; and (iii) the U.S. government will designate Syria a narco-trafficking state and sanction it.
- Jonathan Spyer, Research Director – (i) Hamas violence against Israel will surge around Ramadan and Israel’s new government will again “mow the lawn”; (ii) Iranian protests will intensify; and (iii) Russian-brokered diplomacy between Ankara and Damascus will begin, including a possible Erdoğan-Assad summit.
- Sam Westrop, Islamist Watch Director – (i) Republicans will increasingly embrace Islamists, as Democrats flirt with counter-Islamists; (ii) European Islamists will grow stronger, with streets thugs inciting violence; and (iii) a Turkish-Qatari-Pakistani-Malaysian Islamist axis will emerge, barring any feuds between Ankara and Doha.
- Clifford Smith, Washington Project Director – (i) Saudi Arabia will make a public show of alliance, short of full normalization, with Israel – perhaps a joint strike against an Iranian proxy; (ii) Erdoğan will continue to block Norway and Sweden from joining NATO until Washington pays him off with policy concessions; and (iii) Congress will discover that Tehran provides money to U.S. universities to promote its former officials as professors.
- And, my predictions – (i) Erdoğan will still be dictator of Türkiye in July 2023; (ii) diaspora Jewry will be markedly more alienated from Israel; (iii) the Iran nuclear deal will no longer be a focus of attention; and (iv) Iraq-Iran tensions will rise higher than at any time since 1988.
Turn to the Middle East Forum in 2023 for smart analyses on these and related issues. And I’ll be back to you in a year to see how these 16 predictions fared.
Yours sincerely,
Daniel Pipes
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The Middle East Forum, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual, operational, and philanthropic means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government.
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