MEF Dispatch: An Update on Syria: Sunnis Massacre Alawites, Regime Stability, Once a Jihadi, and Iran's Enduring Interests

An Update on Syria: Sunnis Massacre Alawites, Regime Stability, Once a Jihadi, and Iran's Enduring Interests

By Winfield Myers ● Mar 29, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 6 mins...1651 words

We begin our issue on Syria with Daniel Pipes’s analysis of the recent Sunni massacre of Alawites. Pipes reminds the West that repulsing Islamist aggression represents a core Western interest—plus moral responsibility requires urgent action to avoid a possible genocide.

From there we offer several analyses—and warnings—about the new regime in Damascus, which remains jihadi in nature and intent (suits and ties notwithstanding). Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has no desire to abandon most of his jihadi allies, and no capacity for doing so lest he weaken his regime fatally. Iran, wounded but still determined, won’t give up.

We end with Michael Rubin’s call for Lebanon’s new president, Joseph Aoun, not to squander the moment, but to seize it and rescue Lebanon while he can. If he fails, he has no one to blame but himself.

'Do Not Leave Any Alive': Sunnis vs. Alawites in Syria

The massacre of over 3,000 unarmed Alawites between March 6 and 10 underscores the community's long-standing vulnerability and the explosive potential for sectarian violence in Syria.

This tragic event highlights the precarious position of Alawites in a deeply divided nation.

Frequently persecuted and sometimes massacred during the past two centuries, Alawites insulated themselves geographically from the outside world by staying within their highlands.

Background: The Alawites' rise to power in 1966 upended the traditional Sunni dominance.

The ruthless domination of Syria by Alawites for the next 58 years caused the country’s majority Sunni Muslim population in 2011 to rebel, leading to a full-scale civil war that ended in December 2024 when Sunnis overthrew Alawite rule and returned to power.

The big picture: For Sunnis, an Alawite ruling in Damascus compares to an “untouchable” becoming maharaja or a Jew becoming tsar—an unprecedented and shocking development.

Their dominance elicited profound resentment among the Sunni majority, setting the stage for ongoing conflict.

Sunni grievances festered as they suffered domination by a people they considered inferior, as they perceived discrimination in aspects of life (such as Sunni households paying four times more than Alawites for electricity).

What's next: The 2024 Sunni overthrow of Alawite rule marks a significant shift in power.

That HTS leaders emerged out of al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State lends an air of theater to their donning blazers or suits and ties, then embracing happy talk about human rights while blaming the violence on Alawites.

The public response to this danger? Virtual silence. No marches in the Western capitals, no encampments at universities.

Repulsing Islamist aggression represents a core Western interest, plus moral responsibility requires urgent action to avoid a possible genocide.

To read the full article, click here.

Unpacking the New Agreement in Syria

The agreement signed by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) leader General Mazloum Abdi and interim Syrian ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa on March 10 aligns closely with militant and imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan's call for disarmament, highlighting critical developments in Syria.

This agreement follows Öcalan's appeal to dissolve armed groups, stirring geopolitical tensions.

Why it matters: Turkey's persistent efforts to dismantle Kurdish autonomy in Syria aim to establish a pro-Turkish regime.

Öcalan's disarmament call has been leveraged by Turkey to target the SDF, equating it with the PKK to justify aggression.

The big picture: The SDF's integration with the Syrian army raises concerns about the future of Kurdish self-rule in Kurdish-ruled northeast Syria, or Rojava.

The agreement includes integrating military institutions into the Syrian state, questioning the continuation of Kurdish autonomy.

What's next: A U.S. helicopter brought Abdi to Damascus to sign the agreement, demonstrating American interests in the region.

The U.S. presence means that the implementation of any agreement must not put American troops at risk of confrontation with Turkey or Turkish-backed factions, including HTS and the Free Syrian Army.

The ceasefire clause is crucial given the recent HTS-led massacres, aiming to stabilize the situation and protect Kurdish territories.

To read the full article, click here.

Register for "Statecraft Reimagined" and Receive a Complimentary Book!

Participants in MEF's 2025 policy conference, "Statecraft Reimagined," will receive a complimentary copy of one the following books* at the conference:

Israel and Civilization: The Fate of the Jewish Nation and the Destiny of the West
By Josh Hammer

The Builder’s Stone: How Jews and Christians Built the West and Why Only They Can Save It
By: Melanie Phillips.

**Limit one per household, first come first serve basis.

For more information or to register for the conference, click here.

Don’t Believe the Nonsense About the New Syrian President’s Reform

As the Biden administration ended, Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf met with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, despite his status as a wanted terrorist with a $10 million bounty from the U.S.

This encounter demonstrates a lack of seriousness in U.S. policy, potentially endorsing a group steeped in terrorism and civilian massacres.

Why it matters: On its face, al-Sharaa’s claim to leadership is farcical. His coalition, on paper, controls at most half of Syria.

With HTS militiamen rampaging through Alawi- and Christian-populated areas and slaughtering civilians, it is clear the image al-Sharaa and his apologists in Washington promote is false.

The big picture: Iran and Turkey have long exploited similar narratives of moderation to further anti-American agendas.

Turkish diplomats, for example, drank raki or wine with their Western counterparts, all while Turkey was supporting the Islamic State and supplying al Qaeda-linked groups and Hamas.

What's next: President Trump, known for his hardline stance, may reconsider this risky engagement strategy.

Trump should reimpose the bounty of al-Sharaa and revoke even de facto recognition of his Turkish-backed regime.

To read the rest of the article, click here.

New Syrian Leader Remains Security Threat Despite Rebranding

In an interview, MEF writing fellow Amine Ayoub warns that Israel should not trust Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, known for his jihadist past.

Al-Sharaa's transformation from al-Qaeda affiliate leader to statesman is a strategic ploy.

Why it matters: Al-Sharaa poses a significant security threat despite his political guise.

His regime's brutal actions, including the massacre of Alawites and minorities, underscore his ongoing menace.

The big picture: Israel cannot afford complacency, especially with developments on the Syrian front and Golan Heights.

Al-Sharaa’s jihadi past means that Israel must remain ever-vigilant in order to safeguard its security.

Gaza conflict and Hamas: Ayoub backs Israel's forceful airstrikes on Gaza, asserting the necessity to dismantle Hamas entirely.

He condemns any negotiation with terrorists, urging decisive action to protect Israeli interests.

To read the full article, click here.

Syria’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham Cannot Abandon Its Jihadist Allies

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Syria’s interim government, led by Turkey-backed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has been consolidating control, with jihadists rewarded with key positions.

Foreign fighters, now in senior roles, underscore the coalition's reliance on external actors.

Why it matters: Al-Sharaa's appointments raise alarms in Western capitals, posing security concerns as jihadists gain influence.

Western governments pressure Damascus for reform, linking sanctions relief to the removal of jihadists from power.

The big picture: Al-Sharaa's loyalty to jihadist allies goes beyond ideology and is a strategic necessity, ensuring coalition stability amid territorial challenges.

Despite promises of inclusivity, HTS consolidates power among its loyalists, sidelining secular defectors and former regime officers.

What’s next: The presence of jihadists in government is a ticking time bomb, risking future conflict.

Balancing appeasement and suppression will be crucial, as any misstep could ignite instability.

To read the full article, click here.

Syria’s Next Chapter: Iran Reassesses Its Approach

Early in the Syrian civil war, Iran denied its presence, later justifying its involvement under religious protection while embedding deeply in Syria.

Tehran's strategic foothold transcended religious symbolism as it sacrificed thousands of lives to defend its interests.

Why it matters: The fall of Assad in December 2024 challenged Iranian and Russian influence, yet Iran’s ideological and strategic commitment remains crucial.

Despite its opposition to a Sunni Islamist regime in Damascus, Iran, as a Shia’ state, retains influence over the Alawite community—the backbone of Assad’s former regime.

The big picture: Syria’s interim regime, facing internal strife, struggles to assert control amid Alawite unrest, Kurdish rule in the northeast, Druze rule in the south, and an exclusionary transitional constitution.

Iran's historical strategy mirrors its influence over Iraq, poised to replicate through the Alawites.

Iran will seek an opportune moment to reuse the strategy and will try to prevent Turkey, which has invested significantly less in Syria, from reaping the political and economic benefits that Syria offers.

What’s next: Syria's western regions will remain volatile, with Iran's presence challenging both Turkey and new Syrian rulers.

The new regime in Damascus lacks the capacity to curb Iran’s entrenched influence.

Israel’s perspective emphasizes the threat of a Sunni regime, adding complexity to regional dynamics.

To read the full article, click here.

Will Lebanon’s Joseph Aoun Miss His Opportunity to Rescue Lebanon?

Lebanon celebrates the rise of Joseph Aoun to the presidency as he seeks to reorient Lebanon towards the West.

Aoun's early decisions, including appointing technocratic advisors, aim to stabilize Lebanon amid its financial crisis.

Why it matters: Lebanon's recovery and reconstruction, estimated at $11 billion, hinge on leadership free from corruption and sectarian interests.

With Hezbollah sidelined, Aoun has a rare opportunity to put Lebanese nationalism first.

The big picture: Aoun faces critical vacancies in the Central Bank and Lebanese Armed Forces leadership.

Delaying appointments invites opposition from pro-Hezbollah power brokers and corrupt elites.

What’s next: Aoun should act swiftly, appointing Karim Souaid as Central Bank Governor and Brigadier General Rudolph Haykal as leader of the armed forces without waiting for U.S. approval.

Hesitation risks losing momentum and undermining Lebanon's path to reform.

To read the full article, click here.

Thank you for your support and for subscribing to the Dispatch. If you enjoyed it, please forward it to a friend, and please let us know what you thought of this issue. Your next issue will arrive soon.

Sincerely,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

Was this edition useful?

Your email will be recorded and shared with the sender

Powered by