MEF Dispatch: Ceasefire’s Fragile Peace, Iran’s Hidden Strength, and the Urgent Call for Policy Shifts

Ceasefire’s Fragile Peace, Iran’s Hidden Strength, and the Urgent Call for Policy Shifts

By Winfield Myers ● Nov 27, 2024

Smart Brevity® count: 3.5 mins...980 words

Yesterday’s MEF Dispatch began with news of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, and today’s follows up on that story with analyses on what we should expect the deal to deliver. The agreement demonstrates a desire for a diplomatic breakthrough and may allow Israelis who live in the north to return to their homes—albeit for how long remains to be determined. But no one should celebrate despite the respite the agreement affords, because neither the Lebanese Armed Forces nor the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon have the power to prevent Hezbollah from returning to the area south of the Litani River. The terror group, we argue, will reimpose its grip on Lebanon and begin rebuilding and rearming straight away. In the end, Hezbollah will have to be dealt with at some point, as will its sponsor Iran—if not today, then down the road.

In the kind of analysis too rarely offered today, we also argue that Iran’s industrial metals industry must be sanctioned in order for a policy of “maximum pressure” to succeed. What may appear as a niche industry is in fact a key part of Iran’s non-oil economy. Finally, we urge incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio to reverse outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s years-long record of anti-Christian policies that have resulted in the persecution of Christians from the Palestinian territories to Nagorno-Karabakh and beyond. It is past time to oppose the world’s terrorists and religious bigots rather than cynically empowering them.

Jim Hanson on Fox News: Israel and Lebanon Sign Ceasefire

MEF Chief Editor Jim Hanson discusses with FOX News what led to the signing of the ceasefire and what the likely effects will be for Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran.

Why It Matters: The ceasefire primarily benefits Iran and Hezbollah, potentially isolating Hamas as Israel may intensify its efforts against them. This move comes amid the Biden administration's strategic embargoes affecting Israel's military capabilities.

The Big Picture: Iran's influence in the region faces challenges as their nuclear and missile defenses suffer setbacks, and their allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, are under pressure.

What’s Next: Israel aims for stability in Northern Israel with possible enforcement of U.N. Resolution 1701. The future of Iran's leadership remains uncertain as international dynamics shift.

To watch the full segment, click here.

Don’t Celebrate Israel’s Ceasefire with Hezbollah Yet

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by U.S. and French diplomats, may appear as a moment of peace, but underlying tensions suggest otherwise.

Why It Matters: The agreement pushes Lebanon to enforce commitments from 18 years ago, yet Hezbollah remains dedicated to Israel's eradication. The potential for rearming and continued hostility underlines the fragility of this peace.

The Iran Question: With Iran backing Hezbollah and calling for Israeli leadership's downfall, the ceasefire fails to address the financial networks supporting Hezbollah's global reach, leaving a volatile situation unresolved.

Future Prospects: U.S. pressure on Israel raises concerns over the sustainability of peace, with Netanyahu potentially waiting for a more favorable U.S. administration to secure Israeli defense interests.

To read the full article, click here.

A Ceasefire Deal Won’t Finish Off Hezbollah

Despite the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, concerns persist about the latter's enduring presence and threat along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Why It Matters: The ceasefire agreement lacks mechanisms to prevent Hezbollah's re-establishment along the border, leaving northern Israel vulnerable. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL have historically struggled to manage Hezbollah's influence.

The Proxy Problem: Hezbollah's infrastructure may be damaged, but the group's strategic position in Lebanon remains intact. Iran's backing ensures Hezbollah's resilience, posing ongoing challenges for regional security.

Hezbollah Will Rebuild: As Hezbollah begins rebuilding, sporadic Israeli interventions are expected. However, without addressing the deep-rooted Iranian influence, lasting peace remains elusive.

To read the full article, click here.

U.S. Should Expand Its Sanctions Against Tehran’s Industrial Metals Industry

With President Trump poised to revive his "Maximum Pressure" strategy, there's a growing call to extend sanctions on Iran’s industrial metals sector.

Strategic necessity: Iran's industrial metals exports significantly boost its non-oil revenue, supporting military and nuclear capabilities. Expanding sanctions could curb Tehran's economic strength and regional influence.

Loopholes and growth: Under Biden, Iran's export growth has surged, exploiting sanctions loopholes. Targeting the metals sector, which feeds military programs, could be crucial in diminishing Iran's global market role.

Next steps: The U.S. should extend sanctions to include all significant Iranian firms and expand coverage to metals like zinc and lithium, aiming to severely reduce Iran's export revenue by 2025.

To read the full article, click here.

Rubio Should Reverse Blinken’s Shameful Anti-Christian Bias as Secretary of State

As Marco Rubio prepares to become Secretary of State, there's a call to reverse the perceived anti-Christian bias of his predecessor, Antony Blinken.

Moral imperative: Blinken's tenure saw a neglect of Christian minorities, emboldening regimes that persecute these communities. Rubio is expected to restore focus on religious freedom.

Global perspective: From the Palestinian territories to Nagorno-Karabakh, Christian populations face existential threats. Blinken's diplomatic choices, such as removing Nigeria from the religious freedom watch list, have been controversial.

Policy shift needed: Rubio should end waivers for religious freedom violators and champion the cause of persecuted Christians worldwide, promoting a foreign policy anchored in moral clarity.

To read the full article, click here.

Peace is a rare commodity in the Middle East, and informed analysis of the news behind the headlines celebrating the new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah demonstrates why. Beyond the feel-good stories or the insistence by some that Israel turn a blind eye as Hezbollah rearms and reorganizes lie some hard truths, the foremost of which is that for diplomacy to succeed, it must be based on facts. In the next issue of the Dispatch, we will continue to offer unblinkered analyses of the region and its influence on our lives at home and abroad.

Sincerely,
Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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