MEF Dispatch: Exploding (and Imploding?) Iran; Qatar's Duplicity, Redux; North African Intrigues

Exploding (and Imploding?) Iran; Qatar's Duplicity, Redux; North African Intrigues

By Winfield Myers ● Apr 29, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 5.5 mins...1491 words

The devastating April 26 explosion at the Shahid Rajaee Port near Bandar Abbas, Iran, has rocked the regime to its foundations. Faezeh Alavi reports that Iranians suspect external sabotage, but whatever the cause, dissatisfaction with the regime will increase. Dalga Khatinoglu says the explosion’s political and economic fallout will disrupt the country’s foreign trade and highlight the government’s ineptitude.

Gregg Roman analyzes how Qatar’s massive influence-buying schemes have allowed it to pass itself off as the “indispensable player” in the Israel-Hamas hostage negotiations—all while the tiny Gulf country rewards Hamas with hundreds of millions and hosts its leaders.

Finally, we turn to North Africa, where the Algerian regime has sentenced 75-year-old French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal, a critic of both Islamism and Algeria’s authoritarianism, to five years in prison. Benjamin Weinthal says it’s time for the U.S. to pressure Algeria for his release. And Amine Ayoub warns that this month’s massive data breach in Morocco threatens America’s standing in the region unless the U.S. steps up and stands by its ally.

ICYMI: Mental Illness in the Islamic World with Amir Afkhami

Mental illness in the Islamic world is often perceived differently than in the West. Spiritual healing, jinn possession, and communal stigma shape responses to psychological distress, sometimes sidelining medical intervention. At the same time, untreated mental illness, social isolation, and identity crises can make individuals more vulnerable to radical interpretations of Islam. Contrary to popular belief, radicalization is rarely a product of poverty alone—it is often fueled by personal instability, disillusionment, and a search for purpose. How does mental illness manifest in Muslim-majority societies? Why do some individuals turn to extremist ideologies, while others do not? And how do these cultural frameworks compare to Western approaches to psychiatric care?

Amir A. Afkhami, M.D, Ph.D., is vice chair for clinical affairs and director of medical student education at George Washington University’s department of psychiatry and behavioral sciences, and interim medical director of psychiatric services at George Washington University Hospital. A distinguished fellow of the American Psychiatric Association and an internationally recognized expert in psychiatry, medical education, and public health policy, he advises U.S. federal agencies and Congress on mental health programs and serves on nonprofit boards like Woodley House. He holds an M.A., an M.Phil, and a Ph.D. from Yale University and an M.D. from George Washington University

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

Shockwaves from Explosion in Bandar Abbas Could Weaken the Regime Itself

An explosion last week rocked Shahid Rajaee Port near Bandar Abbas, Iran, injuring over 500 and killing at least four, casting a dark shadow over the regime's future.

Why it matters: Shahid Rajaee Port is a major trade hub, handling 85 percent of the country’s total loading and unloading of goods, including electronics, agricultural products, and pharmaceutical raw materials.

It serves as a lifeline for Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operations and Iran's trade, but is now a testament to the regime's vulnerability.

Affected businessmen now will question the regime’s reliability and ability to create a stable economic sphere for its loyalists.

The big picture: Coinciding with U.S.-Iran talks in Oman, the explosion amplifies doubts over the regime's longevity.

External actors are under suspicion, reminiscent of the 2020 Israeli cyberattack on the port's systems.

What's next: The regime is walking a tightrope as internal dissent grows and external pressures mount.

With significant economic and social impacts, the explosion could ignite widespread protests demanding change.

To read the full article, click here.

Iran’s Own Data Contradict Its Explanations About the Port Explosion

An April 26, 2025, catastrophic explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port could disrupt the country’s foreign trade in addition to highlighting the government’s ineptitude.

Why it matters: This disaster not only exposes Iran's glaring logistical failures but also strikes at the heart of its ambitions to be a regional trade nexus.

The port, responsible for 42 percent of Iran’s non-oil trade, is now crippled, casting doubt on the regime's competency and stability.

Between the lines: The blast raises alarms about potential military misuse of civilian infrastructure, with Western media linking it to unreported explosive rocket fuel materials.

Such revelations could indicate deep-rooted corruption and negligence within Iran's leadership, further eroding trust domestically and internationally.

What's next: The explosion is a critical blow to Iran's trade ambitions, likely scaring off foreign partners and exacerbating its economic isolation.

Extensive damage undermines the regime's claims of resumed operations, thereby threatening Iran's role as a transit hub in the region.

To read the full article, click here.

How Qatar Made Itself Crucial to Israel-Hamas Hostage Mediation

Qatar executed a calculated strategy to dominate the Israel-Hamas negotiations, exploiting its financial influence and strategic positioning to manipulate outcomes.

Why it matters: Qatar's duplicity has undermined regional stability, cloaked as it is in the guise of neutrality while it bolsters Hamas.

Through aggressive influence-buying—spending over $6 billion lobbying the U.S. government and funding universities—Qatar bought access to lawmakers who then pressured Israel to accept Qatari mediation.

Between the lines: Qatar's financial entanglements with hostage families and U.S. entities deepen its control.

Advisors with Qatari ties pressured hostage families, creating leverage points within Israel for concessions.

This created a pressure point within Israel, as desperate families—some potentially unaware of these financial connections—demanded government concessions.

The stakes: Qatar's role as a mediator is a facade, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calling out its duplicity.

The hostage situation reveals Qatar not as part of the solution but as an engineer of crisis.

It is time for the United States and Israel to call out this manipulation and develop alternative approaches that bypass Qatar’s self-serving mediation.

To read the full article, click here.

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The U.S. Should Pressure Algeria to Release Boualem Sansal

On March 27, 2025, Algerian authorities sentenced French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal to five years in prison, ostensibly for historical remarks, but likely due to his French ties.

Why it matters: Sansal's arrest is a political maneuver by Algeria to pressure France amid increasing tensions over Western Sahara.

The arrest reflects Algeria's frustration with Macron's support for Morocco in the conflict with Algeria over Western Sahara and highlights the regime's use of hostages in diplomatic disputes.

The big picture: Relations between Algeria and France have soured, with both countries expelling diplomats following Sansal's sentencing.

Algeria's support for the Polisario Front and its alliance with Iran complicates the regional landscape.

What's next: The U.S. should reevaluate its stance and tell Algeria that military cooperation hinges on Sansal's release.

The U.S. must make it clear to Algeria that there will be no business as usual, let alone military cooperation, until it releases Sansal and takes a hands-off approach to other Algerian intellectuals who support liberalism and peace.

To read the full article, click here.

Cyberwar in the Sahara: How Morocco’s Data Breach Exposes U.S. Vulnerabilities

In April 2025, hackers breached Morocco's national social security database, leaking sensitive data and signaling a broader cyber conflict with implications for the U.S.

Why it matters: This attack isn't just a regional issue—it's a threat to U.S. interests and alliances in North Africa.

Morocco, a key ally, plays a strategic role in American counterterrorism and economic operations in the region.

The big picture: Analysts suspect Algeria, possibly with Iranian or Russian support, orchestrated the attack to destabilize Morocco amid tensions over Western Sahara.

This cyber intrusion underscores the growing digital Cold War, where authoritarian regimes target pro-American states.

What's next: If the United States fails to respond, the message to the world will be clear: our allies are expendable, and our enemies can act with impunity.

But if Washington stands by Morocco—defensively, diplomatically and economically—it will send a very different message. It will say that in the battle for the digital future, we protect those who stand with us.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

It Is Time to Recognize the Polisario Front as a Trans-National Terror Threat
By: Wissam El Bouzdaini
Polisario Front’s Deadly Attacks and Hezbollah Ties Expose Its Terrorist Agenda.

Algeria and Mali: A Dangerous Rift at the Heart of the Sahel
By: Amine Ayoub
A single drone downed near Algeria’s southern border has exposed the depth of a crisis with potential to destabilize an already volatile region.

Qatar Increasingly Seeks to Radicalize Indian Muslims
By: Abhinav Pandya
Indian security forces no longer can afford to ignore Qatar-based individuals and institutions that pose a threat to India.

Thank you for your support and for subscribing to the Dispatch. If you enjoyed it, please forward it to a friend, and please let us know what you thought of this issue. You’ll hear from us again soon.

Sincerely,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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