MEF Dispatch: Finishing of Hamas, Netanyahu’s Destiny, Exposing the Iran Deal, and Engaging with Reza Pahlavi

MEF Dispatch: Finishing Off Hamas, Netanyahu’s Destiny, Exposing the Iran Deal, and Engaging with Reza Pahlavi

By Winfield Myers ● Feb 13, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 5.5 mins...1409 words

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas opened the door not just for the release of hostages, but for the survival of Hamas as Gaza’s governing authority. If allowed to maintain its grip on Gaza via hostage-taking, Hamas will claim victory and seize more hostages in the future. Such a scenario should be unacceptable to Israel under any circumstances.

Netanyahu believes the war presents him with the opportunity to be Israel’s “man of destiny” and that he can save his country the way Churchill saved Great Britain during WWII. Firm support from Trump—whom Netanyahu understands well—gives him added luster, especially if the U.S. delivers on its improbable plan to take over Gaza.

It’s time to expose the backroom deals and subterfuge that made up the Iran deal—a scheme designed to advance Iran’s interests at the expense of America’s—by declassifying the contacts between U.S. negotiators and the Islamic regime. As a next logical step, the U.S. should consider engagement with Reza Pahlavi, not to enthrone him (which he claims not to want), but to signal that it’s time to consign said Islamic regime to the dustbin of history.

ICYMI: February 12, 2025 - Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

Does President Trump's proposal to repatriate Gaza's population represent an opportunity or a threat to PM Netanyahu?

Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also worked with Israel's Ministers of Intelligence, Agriculture and Rural Development, Energy, Water and Infrastructure, Defense, Tourism, Internal Security, and Immigrant Absorption and as an advisor to The Negev Forum. Originally from the U.K., he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya).

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The Case for Ending the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

The ceasefire in Gaza is looking shaky as delays in hostage releases sow discord.

Why it matters: Israel faces a dire threat if Hamas remains in power, bolstered by perceived victories.

Allowing Hamas to govern post-conflict endangers Israeli security, and undermines its regional deterrence.

The big picture: With the IDF poised to withdraw, the ceasefire could legitimize Hamas's tactics and encourage future attacks.

This scenario empowers Hamas, framing hostage-taking as a viable strategy against Israel.

What's next: Netanyahu warns that the ceasefire will end if hostages aren't freed by the weekend.

Trump's call for an immediate hostage release underscores the high stakes and urgency.

The stakes: Israel's survival hinges on dismantling Hamas. No other outcome should be acceptable.

To read the full article, click here.

Statecraft Reimagined: Middle East Forum 2025 Policy Conference

It is our pleasure to invite you to the Middle East Forum’s 2025 Policy Conference, taking place May 19–21 in Washington, D.C. Statecraft Reimagined will gather leading experts and policymakers to discuss the most urgent and complex issues shaping the future of the Middle East. This extraordinary event is poised to be the premier Middle East policy gathering in D.C. this year, offering unparalleled insights, networking, and strategic guidance.

For more information or to register, click here.

Netanyahu Believes He’s Israel’s Man of Destiny. Now Is His Moment of Truth

Benjamin Netanyahu believes he stands on the brink of redefining Israel's destiny and his own legacy.

Why it matters: If Netanyahu succeeds in driving Hamas from Gaza, securing the return of the hostages, and if the US. takes responsibility for what comes next, he will be remembered as the victor in the current war.

But if he fails to act decisively or if his plans prove unworkable, his machinations to remain in power will be seen as self-serving.

The stakes: With Trump’s unwavering support, Netanyahu has a unique chance to dismantle Hamas and secure lasting peace.

Missing this opportunity could lead Hamas to declare victory while emboldening a weakened Iran.

What's next: Netanyahu must leverage U.S. backing to achieve Israel's founding vision of secure borders and regional stability.

Depending on his actions, the coming months could become a period of squandered opportunities — or it could become the prime minister’s finest hour.

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Israel and North Africa: Security Challenges and Strategic Alliances

North Africa's stability is crucial for regional security, with Israel playing an increasingly pivotal role through evolving security relationships.

Why it matters: Political upheavals and militant threats in North Africa directly affect Israel's security landscape.

Cooperation with Morocco and Egypt strengthens counterterrorism and defense capabilities.

Yet, instability in Libya and Algeria poses significant regional risks, potentially spilling over into Israeli interests.

The big picture: The Abraham Accords marked a shift, enhancing Israel's security ties in the region.

Morocco's normalization with Israel has led to robust military and intelligence collaborations.

What's next: Israel's continued engagement in North Africa will focus on counterterrorism partnerships and defense technology exchanges.

Strengthening these ties offers strategic opportunities to counter regional threats and promote broader stability.

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Declassify the Iran Deal

President Trump should investigate and reveal to the American people how the JCPOA came about from start to finish.

Why it matters: The Obama administration's backroom dealings with Iran compromised U.S. security for diplomatic gains.

Billions funneled to Iran could have fueled influence operations against America, including supporting urban violence and anti-American protests.

The stakes: Trump's call to expose the JCPOA's hidden details could unearth shocking truths about Iran’s meddling in U.S. domestic affairs as well as support for Iran’s nuclear program.

Declassification could reveal if U.S. leaders prioritized Iran's agenda over national interests.

What's next: A thorough investigation should expose how deeply Iran's influence infiltrated U.S. policy.

Transparency is crucial to prevent further erosion of trust and security.

To read the rest of this article, click here.

The U.S. Must Engage with Reza Pahlavi:

The U.S. should rethink its approach to Iran by meeting with opposition leaders like Reza Pahlavi.

Why it matters: Engaging with opposition figures could reshape Iran's future and U.S.-Iran relations.

Pahlavi's popularity poses a direct challenge to the regime's legitimacy, and recognizing his status signals that Washington understands the Iranian people’s discontent with the clerical regime in Tehran.

The stakes: Ignoring Pahlavi risks repeating past mistakes and missing an opportunity to influence Iran's political landscape.

His potential as a unifying figure is crucial amid the regime's declining legitimacy and acts more as a coalition builder than a claimant.

What's next: U.S. leaders should engage with Pahlavi to signal support for Iranian self-determination and democratic governance.

A democratic Iran aligned with the West would reshape the Middle East’s strategic balance and dismantle the Islamic Republic’s terror network.

To read the full article, click here.

Reflections on the War in Syria

A former leader of the “313 Force” shares insights into their alliance with Iran and Hezbollah during the Syrian conflict that resulted in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad.

Why it matters: This interview reveals the complex dynamics between Syrian forces and their Iranian allies and highlights the interplay of force and ideology.

The collaboration underscores the strategic importance Iran places on securing Syria as a supply line for Hezbollah.

The big picture: Iran and Hezbollah's involvement in Syria was a key element in Syria’s fractured political and religious landscape and drew fighters to their side who also hated ISIS.

Despite internal opposition, the Iran-aligned forces managed to maintain influence through strategic alliances.

What's next: As Syria transitions post-Assad, many of the same forces are now turning their hostility toward Israel and to maintaining the “axis of resistance.”

This hostility will continue as an “obligation of sharia” even if it operates absent any government sovereignty.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

India Needs to Consolidate Its Control in the Western Indian Ocean
By: Michael Rubin
How I2U2 countries (India, Israel, UAE, U.S.) can further security cooperation.

The Somaliland Alternative: Securing Future Global Shipping Amid the Houthi Threat
By: Eric Navarro
The Port of Berbera can be a lower-risk logistical hub and military staging ground than zones closer to Yemen.

The Lyric and the Gun
By: Hussein Aboubakr Mansour
Protest music, Islamism, and the last days of Egypt’s Sadat.

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