MEF Dispatch: Iran: Weakened but Not Destroyed; Making Sense of the War

Iran: Weakened but Not Destroyed; Making Sense of the War

By Winfield Myers ● Jun 26, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 7 mins...1846 words

Jonathan Spyer writes that while Israel and its U.S. ally achieved a “considerable amount” during the war, exposing Iran’s tactical deficiencies for all to see, “this was not a Waterloo moment. Iran has suffered a series of telling blows which significantly weaken it, without fundamentally changing the strategic picture.”

Michael Rubin asks if President Trump’s sincere preference for diplomacy may repeat the mistakes by his predecessors Barack Obama in 2009 and George H.W. Bush in 1991. In an interview published before the cessation of hostilities, Daniel Pipes says that Israel’s intelligence and military campaign ranks with the Six-Day War of 1967 and will “likely set the standard for all future peer-to-peer warfare for many years to come.”

This issue also features the work of Giulio Meotti and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi.

Tomorrow at 11:30AM – The Forum Roundtable: “The U.S. and Israel: A Team Like No Team Before”

As Israel’s battle with the Islamic Republic of Iran continues in its new phase of direct conflict after four decades of proxy wars, numerous questions remain. How is Israel defining victory and what means does it have to attain its goals? What role with the U.S. play militarily, diplomatically and politically? What does defeat look like for Iran and what does the future hold for its citizens? What does all of this mean for the Middle East more broadly, including new alliances and the prospects for achieving a final and lasting peace in the region?

To help parse through all of these issues from the perspective of the U.S., Israel and Iran are three renowned experts with important insights to share: Victoria Coates, author of The Battle for the Jewish State: How Israel - and America - Can Win and vice president of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation; John Hannah, Randi & Charles Wax Senior Fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy; and Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program senior director and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Lauri Regan, vice president and treasurer at Scholars for Peace in the Middle East.

To register as an audience member, click here.

Israel Has Weakened Iran—but Not Destroyed It

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel holds, allowing a preliminary assessment of the 12-day campaign's impact.

Why it matters: The campaign exposed Iran's tactical flaws and proxy strategy weaknesses, crucial for understanding regional power dynamics and future security implications.

Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been significantly disrupted, with key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and other sites reportedly damaged.

This vulnerability could influence policy decisions by regional actors and international stakeholders, as Iran's capacity to rebuild remains under scrutiny.

Details: Iran's reliance on proxy forces has shown limitations, with groups like Hezbollah and Hamas prioritizing local interests over Tehran's strategic goals.

The lack of a unified response against Israel allowed for targeted operations without cohesive retaliation, highlighting the fragmented loyalty among Iran's allies.

Israel's intelligence successes, including the targeting of key military figures, further demonstrate the strategic penetration into Iranian operations.

And yet: This was not a Waterloo moment. Iran has suffered a series of telling blows which significantly weaken it, without fundamentally changing the strategic picture.

The regime is not broken. Its ambitions remain intact. It will now set about trying to revive its capacities.

What's next: The question now remaining is whether Israel will, in line with its practice in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, be able to commence periodic but ongoing operations against Iran in order to disrupt and frustrate Iranian attempts to rebuild the nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Until such time as the Iranian people can organize to rid themselves of a regime which a large majority of them clearly reject, this will be the key imperative.

To read the full article, click here.

Watch – Gregg Roman Discusses Iranian Retaliation against the U.S. on ABC News

Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, joins ABC News to provide insights on the recent U.S. strikes on Iran, Iran's potential retaliatory actions, and the broader geopolitical implications. Roman delves into Russia's role in Iran's nuclear program, the strategic coordination between the U.S. and Israel, and how these strikes position the U.S. in negotiations. He also outlines Iran's possible responses, from conventional attacks to asymmetrical warfare or even radiological threats. Stay informed on this critical issue shaping U.S. interests in the Middle East.

Watch the full video above, or click here to watch on YouTube.

Is Trump Repeating Obama’s Iran Mistake and Bush’s Iraq Disaster?

President Donald Trump's intervention to halt Israeli military actions against Iran highlights a controversial approach prioritizing diplomacy over decisive action. He is sincere about diplomacy.

Why it matters: Trump's strategy risks repeating past diplomatic failures, where similar overtures led to compromised outcomes and emboldened adversaries.

By focusing on negotiations with Khamenei, Trump potentially undermines efforts to hold Iran accountable for its nuclear ambitions.

Details: Trump opposes any Israeli effort to kill Khamenei; to do so would deprive Trump of a partner capable of signing the agreement to surrender the Iranian nuclear program.

Trump's direct order to stop Israeli bombers reveals a preference for dialogue that echoes Obama's perceived inaction during the 2009 Iranian unrest and George H.W. Bush’s 1991 failure to protect Iraqis after calling on them to rise up against Saddam Hussein.

This reluctance to support aggressive measures against Iran's leadership may limit the effectiveness of U.S. foreign policy in deterring Iranian threats.

What's next: As Trump navigates this geopolitical landscape, his actions could embolden Iran's regime while raising concerns about the U.S.'s commitment to regional allies.

The balancing act between diplomacy and assertiveness will define Trump's legacy in Middle East politics, with potential long-term implications for regional stability.

To read the full article, click here.

Interview with Daniel Pipes: Making Sense of the Israel-Iran War

Daniel Pipes: Israel's intelligence and military campaign against Iran rivaled the historic Six-Day War, setting a new benchmark for future conflicts.

Why it matters: Israel's actions aimed not only at dismantling Iran's nuclear program but also at destabilizing the Islamic Republic to incite regime change.

Despite Iranian claims of control, Israel's overwhelming military success highlighted a significant imbalance on the battlefield.

Details: Iranian officials, retreating into fantasy, claimed air dominance over Israel, yet evidence suggests Israel's operations severely disrupted Iran's capabilities.

Israel's efforts to encourage insurrection within Iran, hoping to reverse the 1978-79 revolution, have not yet materialized, but could still gain momentum.

What's next: The potential collapse of Iran's regime could reshape Middle Eastern politics, reducing Iran's influence and accelerating the decline of global Islamism.

Israel's military triumph reinforced its standing globally, with implications for relations with major powers like the U.S. and China.

To read the full interview, click here.

Listen – Gregg Roman on JNF’s IsraelCast Podcast: “Israel vs. The Iranian Regime: Intelligence, Strategy, and Survival”

In this episode of IsraelCast, host Steven Shalowitz is joined by Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, for an unflinching look at Israel’s operations against the Iranian regime. Roman, a seasoned geopolitical strategist and former adviser in Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Defense, offers an insider’s breakdown of Israel’s military campaign against Iran’s nuclear and proxy threats. From covert Mossad operations and drone manufacturing hubs inside Iran to the cyber and psychological warfare unfolding behind the scenes, Roman reveals the staggering scale and sophistication of Israel’s strategy.

The episode also delves into global reactions—from European equivocation to Arab states’ quiet approval—and what the path to regime change might look like. Packed with real-time analysis and sobering reflections on global security, this episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking clarity on one of the most consequential conflicts of our time.

To listen to the full podcast, click here.

Europeans Want Israel to Do the Dirty Work So They Can Then Blame It

As American B-2s bombed Iranian nuclear sites, European leaders continued their diplomatic charade in Geneva, ignoring Tehran's provocations.

Why it matters: Europe's tepid response and reliance on U.S. interventions reveal a continent adrift, content with symbolic gestures while real threats loom.

If Israeli pilots hadn’t bombed Iran’s nuclear project, who else would have? The RAF? The French? The Germans? After all these years and all these “talks,” the only country that finally intervened was the one with the most at stake: the one that Ayatollah Khamenei and his predecessors always said they wanted to annihilate like a “tumor.”

Details: In Geneva, Kaja Kallas, the high representative of EU foreign policy, was the only woman there. The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghachi, did not shake her hand.

The incident is reminiscent of when Turkish President Erdoğan left President of the European Commission Ursula von Der Leyen without a chair and former president Charles Michel shrugged. And Ursula, without a chair, muttered: “It’s regrettable, but I chose not to make the situation worse.”

Europe's reluctance to act decisively against Iran underscores a disturbing trend of appeasement, expecting others to tackle the nuclear threat.

What's next: As Israel and the U.S. take bold actions, Europe's passive strategy risks diminishing its influence and moral authority on the global stage.

In what imaginary world do Europe’s statesmen live—under the blackmail of multiculturalism, fear of their own shadows and their own cultural cowardice?

To read the full article, click here.

‘Saraya Ansar al-Sunna’ and the Damascus Church Bombing

A suicide bombing targeting the Mar Elias church in Damascus was claimed by Saraya Ansar al-Sunna. The group has had a presence on social media for some time, primarily known for threats it has made against the Alawite minority.

Why it matters: This attack underscores the volatile dynamics between radical groups and minority communities in the region, with Saraya Ansar al-Sunna framing it as retaliation against Christian opposition to Salafi proselytization.

The group's emergence from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham defectors marks a continued fragmentation within jihadist factions, complicating efforts to stabilize the area.

Details: Saraya Ansar al-Sunna, linked to past operations against the Assad regime, declared this attack as a response to “provocation” from the Christians on account of Christian opposition to Salafi da‘wa (proselytization) in the Dweila neighborhood of Damascus—an incident that attracted some controversy in March, with the government intervening to put restrictions on the da‘wa.

The group's statement emphasizes its alignment with Islamic State ideology, yet it currently operates independently, suggesting strategic divergences among jihadist entities.

What's next: The potential for further attacks looms as Saraya Ansar al-Sunna asserts readiness for more actions, challenging both local authorities and international observers in maintaining security.

Understanding the motivations and connections of such groups is crucial for devising effective counterterrorism measures and fostering dialogue within Syria's fragmented society.

To read the full article and translation, click here.

We hope you’re enjoying our special coverage of the war and its aftermath. If you found this useful to understanding the conflict, please forward it to a friend. And please use the comments section to let us know your opinion.

Thank you,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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