From exploding pagers to diplomatic tightropes, the Middle East remains a powder keg of tactical victories and strategic stalemates. This briefing dissects Israel's covert operations against Hezbollah, debates the legality of unconventional warfare, and examines the ripple effects across the region - from Iran's propaganda machine to Sudan's overlooked tragedy.

As the Abraham Accords face their toughest test yet, we explore how age-old conflicts are being reshaped by modern tactics and shifting alliances.

Exploding Pagers Signal Dilemmas for Both Hezbollah and Israel

The killing of 11 Hezbollah members due to exploding pagers marks a tactical win for Israel, highlighting the deep infiltration of Hezbollah.

Why it matters: This incident underscores Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities and boosts Israeli confidence in their security capabilities, but it doesn’t change the ongoing conflict dynamics on Israel’s northern border.

The big picture: Israel consistently demonstrates superior tactical capabilities against Hezbollah, yet this hasn’t enabled them to decisively alter the strategic picture.

What’s next: Israel faces the dilemma of whether to launch a ground operation to push Hezbollah back, a move complicated by exhausted ground forces and the need for US resupply.

Yes, but: Hezbollah must decide how to retaliate without provoking an all-out war, balancing the need to satisfy their supporters and patrons with the desire to avoid escalation.

Was ‘Operation Below the Belt’ Legal? Absolutely

The synchronized explosions of Hezbollah’s devices were precise and disrupted internal communications, but faced international criticism for allegedly violating international law.

Why it matters: The attack followed protocols defined by the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), targeting devices used exclusively by Hezbollah.

The big picture: Despite condemnation, Israel’s operation was within the legal framework of the CCW, distinguishing between military and civilian targets.

Yes, but: Critics argue the attack risked civilian casualties, reflecting the ongoing debate over international humanitarian law in asymmetric warfare.

Blinded Hezbollah Terrorists Shouldn’t Expect Sympathy in Iran

The Iranian government is using cheap theatrics to garner sympathy for Hezbollah terrorists blinded by exploding pagers, but Iranians see through the propaganda.

Why it matters: The systematic use of blinding as a punishment by the Iranian regime has eroded its legitimacy, and Iranians have little sympathy for Hezbollah’s plight.

The big picture: Iran’s use of Hezbollah to suppress protests and the regime’s reliance on violence highlight the deep-rooted issues within the Islamic Republic.

What’s next: As the Iranian regime continues to lose legitimacy, its reliance on Hezbollah and other proxies may increase, but sympathy for these groups will remain limited.

While Still in Gaza, Israel Has No Good Options in Lebanon. But It May Invade Anyway

The IDF and the home front are weary, and a military offensive against Hezbollah won’t defeat the terror organization. The success of the pager operation could offer a way out.

Why it matters: Israel’s continued military actions could lead to significant regional implications, with potential consequences for both Gaza and Lebanon.

The big picture: Israel faces several strategic options in Lebanon, each with significant risks and challenges.

What’s next: Israel must balance its objectives in Gaza with potential escalations in Lebanon, deciding whether to pursue a ground operation against Hezbollah.

Four Years On, Abraham Accords Are Strained by Gaza War — But Prove Resilient

The visibility of ties with Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE has changed since Hamas’s attacks on October 7, but Israel’s newest Arab partners remain committed to a strategic choice.

Why it matters: Despite the strain from the ongoing conflict, the Abraham Accords continue to hold, showing the resilience of Israel’s relationships with the Arab world.

The big picture: While there have been tensions and reduced visibility of ties, the strategic decision to normalize relations remains strong.

What’s next: Israel aims to expand the circle of peace, with hopes of including more countries in the region.

The World Turns a Blind Eye to Sudan

The international community seems indifferent to Sudan’s 15-month war that has killed thousands and displaced even more.

Why it matters: The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has led to massive displacement and a looming famine, with 25 million people needing humanitarian assistance.

The big picture: Sudan’s conflict fits the pattern of Middle Eastern wars leading to state collapse and de facto partition, with rival powers sponsoring local factions.

Yes, but: International powers have taken sides, with Egypt and Saudi Arabia backing the SAF, and the UAE supporting the RSF, each seeking strategic advantages.

The Middle East's geopolitical chessboard continues to evolve at a dizzying pace. While Israel's pager operation against Hezbollah showcases its tactical prowess, the broader strategic picture remains murky. The Abraham Accords' resilience in the face of Gaza's turmoil offers a glimmer of hope, even as Sudan's devastating war fades from global attention.

As regional powers jockey for position and the rules of engagement blur, the path to lasting stability remains as elusive as ever. The coming months will likely determine whether these tactical maneuvers can translate into meaningful strategic gains or if the region is destined for further cycles of conflict.

Stay tuned for further developments.

Sincerely,

Ahnaf Kalam
Digital Media Specialist
Middle East Forum