Syria's Chemical Weapons; Dealing with Iran; Making Turkey Pay; A University's Victory Over Demonstrators

By Winfield Myers ● May 06, 2025

Smart Brevity^® count: 6 mins...1541 words

In the latest of MEF’s series of in-depth reports, Gregg Roman details Syria’s heretofore secret chemical weapons program, revealed to MEF by clandestine intelligence gathering over a six-year period. The information is based on firsthand accounts from regime insiders, intercepted communications, and documentary evidence collected at great personal risk by MEF’s sources.

Mardo Soghom argues that in its negotiations with the U.S., Iran may push its luck too far if it assumes that President Trump wants a deal at all costs. Then again, warns Loqman Radpey, Iran is not remotely interested in real compromise, and deterrence does not work on a fanatically religious regime.

Ahnaf Kalam analyses the tightening grip of Bangladeshi Islamists following the ouster of its reformist prime minister, while Michael Rubin says that any country that recognizes Turkey’s occupation of Cyprus should be treated in kind by having their own minorities recognized by the West—and let the chips fall where they may.

Finally, A.J. Caschetta reports that the Rochester Institute of Technology, where he teaches, stood up to the pro-Hamas mobs last fall and hasn’t allowed them to return. Still, he warns, the administration must be ever-vigilant.

Syria's Clandestine Chemical Arsenal: The Complete Dossier

The Middle East Forum unveils the intricate system behind Syria’s chemical weapons program, which persisted until the Assad regime's fall in December 2024.

Why it matters: The Assad regime's network managed to develop, produce, and deploy chemical and biological weapons while evading international scrutiny.

This report highlights the significant role of Institute 6000 and Branch 450 under the Center for Scientific Studies and Research, which served as the primary vehicle for weapons development.

The big picture: The investigation reveals a program more sophisticated and extensive than previously understood by the international community.

It includes unprecedented details on personnel, facilities, and evasion tactics used to maintain chemical weapons capabilities.

Between the lines: The program's survival hinged on systematic deception orchestrated at the Presidential Palace level, with direct oversight and strategic management.

Intelligence gathered includes firsthand accounts, intercepted communications, and documentary evidence, all of which affirm the program's resilience and strategic depth.

Go deeper: For a comprehensive understanding, explore the full report detailing the organizational structure, key personnel, and historical origins of the program.

Detailed accounts provide an understanding of the Assad regime's strategic maneuvers and the report’s implications for regional security.

To read the full report, click here.

Trump Seeks a Deal, but Iran May Be Pushing Too Far

Tensions remain high amid ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Shutterstock

By: Mardo Soghom

In Tehran, there's a perception that President Trump is steering away from conflict, aiming instead for a diplomatic legacy.

Why it matters:

Iranian media notes Trump’s preference for diplomacy over confrontation, suggesting he seeks a peaceful resolution and possibly a Nobel Peace Prize.

The big picture:

The Houthi missile attack on Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, likely sanctioned by Tehran, tests Trump's diplomatic resolve and proxy management.

Between the lines:

It is risky for Khamenei to assume that Trump will continue to veto military options, particularly considering the slow pace of the nuclear negotiations, the postponement of the fourth round of talks, and the recent missile attack on Israel.

Go deeper: Khamenei is gambling with stakes far higher than even he can afford.

To read the full article, click here.

Is a Reliable Nuke Deal with Iran Even Possible?

Demonstrators march against the original Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in New York City, July 2022. (Shutterstock)

By: Loqman Radpey

The nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran highlight the stark reality that Iran's regime is entrenched in its anti-Western ideology.

Why it matters: Iran’s leaders see their survival as dependent on resisting the liberal international order. To them, the Islamic Republic is not just a government but also a mission.

The regime's actions are driven by deeply held beliefs, not strategic pragmatism, rendering diplomatic efforts futile.

The big picture: The U.S. faces a regime committed to its ideological underpinnings so that it cannot be swayed by negotiations or international pressure.

Iran's leadership sees abandoning its anti-U.S. and anti-Israel stance as ideological suicide, making true compromise impossible.

Go deeper: U.S. policymakers must confront the truth: Iran's compliance is temporary and tactical, with deception as a survival strategy.

This hard-nosed approach by the U.S. and Israel is essential to crafting policies that full take into account Iran's enduring hostility and nuclear ambitions.

To read the full article, click here.

Statecraft Reimagined 2025 - Registration Deadline May 11!

The last day to register for MEF’s 2025 Statecraft Reimagined policy conference is Sunday, May 11. Register now to reserve your spot!

Statecraft Reimagined will gather leading experts and policymakers to discuss the most urgent and complex issues shaping the future of the Middle East. This extraordinary event is poised to be the premier Middle East policy gathering in D.C. this year, offering unparalleled insights, networking, and strategic guidance.

We also invite you to participate in ‘The Strait,’ an immersive and interactive war game simulation on May 22. Navigate a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, facing cyber threats and diplomatic challenges. Sharpen your strategic skills, network with experts, and shape the outcome.

To register for the conference, click here.

Ahnaf Kalam on Islamists’ Tightening Grip on Bangladesh

With a population of 170 million people, Bangladesh, formerly east Pakistan, is the third largest Muslim majority nation in the world.

By: Marilyn Stern

Bangladesh is grappling with significant political upheaval, reminiscent of Iran's 1979 revolution, as Islamists exploit the opportunity to gain power created by the overthrow of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Why it matters: The rise of Islamism in Bangladesh threatens regional stability and Western interests.

The ousted Prime Minister Hasina once stabilized the economy and curbed extremism, but her departure has left a power vacuum now filled by hardline Islamist factions.

The big picture: Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh's interim leader, has lifted the ban on the terrorist group Jamaat-e-Islami and reversed crackdowns on other Islamist groups, thereby empowering extremist narratives.

This shift poses a national security threat, potentially destabilizing South Asia and empowering anti-Western forces.

Go deeper: The Trump administration condemns the violence against Hindus and suggests leveraging trade preferences and IMF loans to pressure Bangladesh into holding elections.

In the U.S., scrutiny of groups like the Islamic Circle of North America, which echoes Jamaat-e-Islami's ideology, is crucial to countering radicalization.

To read the full summary and watch the podcast, click here.

If Pakistan Is Recognizing Occupied Cyprus, Why Shouldn’t Cyprus Recognize Baluchistan?

All Turks, Azeris, and Pakistani must understand that if their leaders open the Pandora’s Box, there will be no closing it and, whether next year or a decade from now, they will face a common result: ...

By: Michael Rubin

Cypriot diplomacy punches far above its weight. Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos receives respect on the global stage, and deservedly so.

Why it matters: Turkey's reckless push for getting his Islamist allies Pakistan and Azerbaijan to recognize Turkish-occupied Cyprus as sovereign is a direct threat to regional stability and an affront to international law.

Erdoğan's unchecked ambitions are being met with fierce resistance, as Cyprus and Greece prepare to counter with strategic alliances and support for separatist movements in Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan.

The big picture: Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan form a new axis of Sunni Islamist terror, backing Turkish-occupied Cyprus in defiance of legal norms, driven by Erdoğan's imperialistic vision.

These actions aim to dismantle a sovereign EU member, forcing Cyprus and its allies to consider drastic reciprocal measures.

Next steps: Supporting independence movements like those of the Kurds and Talysh could fracture Ankara, Baku, and Islamabad, leading to potential partitions and a reshaping of geopolitical landscapes.

All Turks, Azeris, and Pakistani must understand that if their leaders open the Pandora’s Box, there will be no closing it and, whether next year or a decade from now, they will face a common result:
Partition and division. Ankara, Baku, and Islamabad may come to lament that fact, but Diyarbakir as the new capital of Kurdistan, Stepanakert as the renewed capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Lankaran as the capital of the Talysh Republic, and Kalat or Gwadar as the capital of Baluchistan will celebrate.

To read the full article, click here.

How One University Dealt With Pro-Hamas Protesters

nti-Israel demonstrators at the Rochester Institute of Technology. Photo: Author

By: A.J. Caschetta

In the wake of pro-Hamas protests sweeping U.S. campuses, Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) distinguishes itself by effectively managing and preventing further unrest.

Why it matters: Unlike the Ivy League institutions that experienced turmoil at the hands of anti-Israel demonstrations, RIT swiftly shut down protests, preserving its brand and campus environment.

The university's absence of a Middle East studies department or Students for Justice in Palestine chapter helps shield it from extremist influences.

The big picture: The November 13, 2023, protest led by external agitators was contained, preventing further disruptions at RIT.

Remarkably, instead of inaugurating a new era of campus unrest, the November 13 protest was the last one of the year. As the Fall 2023 semester ended, and the Spring 2024 semester turned into the semester of “encampments” throughout the nation, there were no more protests at RIT.
President David Munson and Provost Prabu David's leadership played a crucial role in maintaining order and upholding free speech without harassment.

Go deeper: RIT’s struggle with pro-Hamas demonstrations shows that even when a university does what is right and necessary, it must maintain vigilance against the antisemitism of today’s anti-Israel demonstrators.

Like preventing dandelions from taking over a pristine lawn, keeping anti-Israel protests at bay requires continual deterrence. There is no one-time, magical panacea.

To read the full article, click here.

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Sincerely,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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