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Talks with Hezbollah, Khamenei’s Future, and Saudi Arabia’s Balancing Act

By Ahnaf Kalam ● Nov 21, 2024

Smart Brevity® count: 4.5 mins...1135 words

This issue of MEF Dispatch dives into pressing questions, including the potential for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the implications of Ayatollah Khamenei’s son Mojtaba’s rise in Iran, and the future of Saudi-Israel relations. We also tackle other critical topics, including the vanishing freedom to criticize Islam in Europe, duplicity in Turkey’s intelligence agency, and the ongoing Yazidi genocide. From strategic insights to in-depth analyses, explore the stories shaping today's geopolitical landscape. Read on for the full articles and expert perspectives.

ICYMI: November 20, 2024 - Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

Israel Insider

Is a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah imminent? If so, what impact would it have on Israel’s other six fronts?

Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also worked with Israel's Ministers of Intelligence, Agriculture and Rural Development, Energy, Water and Infrastructure, Defense, Tourism, Internal Security, and Immigrant Absorption and as an advisor to The Negev Forum. Originally from the U.K., he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya).

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

Choosing Mojtaba Khamenei as Successor Highlights the Islamic Republic’s Weakness

Khomeini and Khamenei
By: Michael Rubin

The supreme leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, does not have the prestige of Iran’s grand ayatollahs or even many ordinary ayatollahs.

Why it matters:

  • Mojtaba lacks the religious prestige of previous leaders, potentially weakening the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.

  • The appointment suggests a shift towards hereditary leadership, undermining the regime’s meritocratic claims.

The big picture:

  • Khamenei’s health issues and age make succession planning crucial to maintain power structures.

  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) prefers a leader they can control, ensuring their stronghold on the economy.

What’s next:

  • Mojtaba’s controversial succession could lead to increased instability and opposition within Iran.

  • International actors, like Israel, have a potential opportunity to exploit the leadership vacuum for strategic gains.

To read the full article, click here.

MBS’s ‘Genocide’ Critique of Israel Is Worrying, but a Saudi Deal Is Not a Lost Cause

Mohammed Bin Salman
By: Lazar Berman

Mohammed Bin Salman sharpened his criticism of Israel and continues to warm ties with Iran, but a defense pact with the U.S. is still his priority and Tehran is still the chief foe.

A Shift in Saudi Discourse:

  • MbS’s public condemnation marks a significant escalation in Saudi rhetoric against Israel.

  • Such statements may be aimed at appeasing domestic and regional audiences amid tensions.

Balancing Act with Iran:

  • Saudi Arabia continues to warm ties with Iran, engaging in diplomatic and military dialogues.

  • This rapprochement is driven by a desire for regional stability and security amidst ongoing external threats.

U.S. Defense Pact as a Priority:

  • Despite tensions, MbS’s main focus is securing a defense agreement with the United States.

  • The Saudi-Israel relationship could evolve favorably, especially with changes in U.S. administration.

To read the full article, click here.

Don’t Dare to Criticize Islam in Europe or the Police Will Come

Orwell Statue in front of BBC
By: Giulio Meotti

Critics of Islam in 2024 Europe face repression akin to the treatment of anti-Soviet writers in the 1950s—silenced with fear, and police at the door.

A Chilling Reality:

  • Journalists like Allison Pearson are being targeted for social media posts critical of Islamism in Europe, reminiscent of Orwellian tactics of repression and censorship.

  • Police investigations for “hate speech” are becoming increasingly common for otherwise reasonable sentiments expressed by Europeans, undermining freedom of expression.

Echoes of the Past:

  • The crackdown bears striking resemblance to Soviet-era censorship, silencing dissent and instilling fear among critics, lest the prevailing public narrative be challenged or scrutinized.

  • Comparisons to historical repression highlight the gravity of current events in Europe and paint a bleak picture of what may yet be to come.

Global Implications:

  • The trend raises questions about the state of free speech and human rights across Western democracies from Europe to the United States.

  • As criticism of Islam is increasingly stifled, the impact on cultural and political discourse is extremely dangerous to a free and open society, and can yield even more disastrous effects down the line.

To read the full article, click here.

Turkish Intelligence Knew of ISIS Surveillance, but Remained Silent, Leading To Attack

Turkish Terrorist
By: Abdullah Bozkurt

A report reveals that Turkish intelligence knew about ISIS surveillance activities before the Istanbul attack in January 2024 but failed to act.

Intelligence Ignored:

  • Turkish Intelligence Agency MIT was aware of ISIS operative Mohammed Ibrahim’s activities yet did not alert law enforcement.

  • This oversight allowed ISIS to carry out surveillance on potential targets, leading to an attack.

Patterns of Negligence:

  • This is not the first time MIT has withheld crucial intelligence, raising questions about their motives and effectiveness.

  • Previous incidents show a pattern of delayed or absent action, potentially influencing public discourse or benefiting government narratives.

Consequences and Concerns:

  • The attack on the Church of Santa Maria in Istanbul resulted in fatalities, underscoring the cost of inaction.

  • Ongoing scrutiny of MIT’s operations highlights the need for accountability and reform to prevent future tragedies.

To read the full article, click here.

Ten Years On, It Is Essential to Recognize the Yazidi Genocide Is Not Fully Over

Kanke Refugee Camp
By: Bared Maronian and Jackie Abramian

A U.S. desire to withdraw troops completely from Iraq and a commitment to prevent the genocide of the Yazidis are mutually exclusive.

Unresolved Trauma:

  • Over 280,000 Yazidis remain in displacement camps, with many women and children still in ISIS captivity.

  • The lack of political resolution between the Kurdish Regional Government and Iraq’s federal government impedes their return home.

Global Responsibilities:

  • The U.S. desire to withdraw troops from Iraq conflicts with the commitment to prevent further genocide.

  • International efforts must focus on securing the release of captives and providing sustainable housing and resources for Yazidis.

A Call for Action:

  • The incoming U.S. administration should ensure military presence to prevent an ISIS resurgence and support for NGOs in Sinjar.

  • Preserving Yazidi culture and ensuring their safety sends a powerful message against extremist threats in the region.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

ISIS posters

In today’s MEF Dispatch, we probed some of the region’s key issues. Israel’s ongoing war with Hezbollah, the implications of the incoming Trump presidency on Israel’s other six fronts, and developments in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Europe—myriad topics examined rigorously, fairly, and ready to explore. Don’t miss upcoming issues of MEF Dispatch to stay in-the-know on the most important topics of the day.

Sincerely,
Ahnaf Kalam
Digital Media Specialist
Middle East Forum

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