We end the week by warning, in light of U.S.-Hamas talks, that history shows little good and much harm comes from American engagement with terrorists. Forces are redrawing the map of Syria in ways that bear little resemblance to many media reports, all as Israel works to develop a buffer zone along its border with Syria in light of its Gaza experience. Also on offer is an analysis of Middle Eastern demographics that might surprise some readers, and more proof of Turkey’s cooperation with al-Qaeda—another sure and certain sign that it has ceased to be a U.S. ally.

ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry, March 5, 2025

Israel has accepted a U.S. proposal to extend the current Gaza ceasefire. Hamas is demanding the implementation of phase two of the deal agreed in January, including the beginning of Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Is the ceasefire doomed? Will the war re-commence?

Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also worked with Israel's Ministers of Intelligence, Agriculture and Rural Development, Energy, Water and Infrastructure, Defense, Tourism, Internal Security, and Immigrant Absorption and as an advisor to The Negev Forum. Originally from the U.K., he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya).

To watch the full podcast, click here.

America’s Hamas Talks Set a Dangerous Precedent

The Trump administration’s direct engagement with Hamas in Qatar shatters decades of U.S. diplomatic precedent, potentially compromising American values.

Why it matters: These talks risk legitimizing a terrorist organization dedicated to Israel’s destruction, undermining U.S. credibility globally.

Flashback: Previous U.S. engagement with groups like the Taliban and Hezbollah often backfired, strengthening these groups and compromising U.S. strategic goals.

The bottom line: Meeting Hamas in luxury hotels grants them undeserved diplomatic legitimacy. The U.S. must focus on dismantling Hamas's operational capabilities, not conceding to their demands.

What's next: Negotiations should be strictly tactical, with no political concessions. The ultimate goal must remain the complete defeat of Hamas, ensuring no repeat of past failures.

To read the full article, click here.

What Is Israel’s Plan for Syria?

Israel has announced its military presence in southern Syria for an indefinite period, signaling a strategic shift as it addresses security threats from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).

Why it matters: Israel's actions challenge the emerging Turkish-backed HTS regime in Syria. They show Israel's commitment to protecting its borders and allies, including the Druze community.

The big picture: Israel appears to be pursuing a coherent strategy in Syria, which is in direct opposition to that of Turkey and its Islamist clients. This is a significant new development on the Middle East stage.

What's next: Israel's cooperation with local Druze groups could strengthen its position in Syria while ensuring the safety of its allies.

To read the full article, click here.

Middle East Forum 2025 Policy Conference – additional speakers announced, discounted tickets!

Join us at the Middle East Forum’s 2025 Policy Conference, taking place May 19–21 in Washington, D.C. Statecraft Reimagined will gather leading experts, diplomats, and policymakers to discuss the most urgent and complex issues shaping the future of the Middle East.

This extraordinary event is poised to be the premier Middle East policy gathering in D.C. this year, offering unparalleled insights, networking, and strategic guidance.

We are also pleased to announce that, thanks to a generous contribution from an anonymous donor, we are able to offer a select number of general admission tickets at a discounted rate of $550. These tickets are available on a first-come, first-served basis. Be sure to get yours now.

To register, click here.

Will a Kurdish-Druze Crescent Be a Bulwark Against Chaos in Syria?

The collapse of Assad's regime in December 2024 has thrown Syria into chaos, with the al-Qaeda-derived Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) claiming control but struggling to assert real authority.

Why it matters: HTS's attempt to consolidate power is challenged by diverse regional factions, including Kurds, Druze, and other tribal groups.

The big picture: Israel supports Syria's Druze minority, aiming to form a Kurdish-Druze crescent to stabilize the region.

What's next: The U.S.—for now—continues to back the Syrian Democratic Forces, crucial in countering ISIS and maintaining regional stability.

To read the full article, click here.

The Northwest Syria Battles and the Local Defense Forces: Interview

After the fall of Aleppo during the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi interviewed a source who had been linked to the Martyr Ali Zayn al-‘Abidin Berri Brigade, a unit that was part of the Iranian and Hezbollah-backed Local Defense Forces network and worked in particular with Hezbollah’s al-Radhwan special forces.

Why it matters: Sources like the former soldier interviewed give rare, first-hand accounts straight from those who participated in the battles. Such perspectives are not available from external observers.

The big picture: The insurgent offensive in Aleppo was met with strategic withdrawals and a lack of coordinated response from Syrian forces.

What's next: The future of the new Islamist regime in Damascus depends on the interactions between local tribal groups, foreign-backed militias, and the overarching influence of regional powers.

To read the full article, click here.

Nicholas Eberstadt: The Shifting Demographics of the Middle East

Recent findings highlight a dramatic decline in fertility rates across Muslim-majority countries, affecting future demographic and geopolitical landscapes.

Why it matters: Countries like Turkey and Iran are experiencing sub-replacement fertility levels, signaling a shift towards aging populations with potential economic strains.

The big picture: In Turkey, a decline in the ethnic Turkish population contrasts with higher Kurdish birth rates, potentially altering ethnic balances.

What's next: As populations age, Middle Eastern nations face economic challenges similar to those in Europe, where the discrepancy between the high fertility rates of the Muslim immigrant population relative to that of the host population offers evidence that assimilation is not underway.

To read the full article or watch the video, click here.

U.S. Kills Turkish Al-Qaeda Operative, a Long-Time Asset of Turkey’s Intelligence Agency

A precision U.S. Central Command strike has unmasked Turkey's complicity in nurturing jihadist networks, with the elimination in Syria of Muhammed Yusuf Ziya Talay, a Turkish al-Qaeda operative under Turkish spy agency MIT's protection.

Why it matters: Talay's death exposes the deep-seated collusion between Turkey's intelligence agency and al-Qaeda, sanctioned by Erdoğan's government.

The big picture: Despite being on Turkey's terrorism watchlist, Talay operated freely, shielded by MIT, revealing the Erdoğan administration's tacit support for jihadist activities.

What's next: As the U.S. continues to dismantle these networks, Turkey faces mounting pressure to sever its ties with jihadist groups and uphold its commitments to global security.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

As this week’s offerings demonstrate, the Middle East is in flux, with warring factions and demographic challenges. The need for intelligent, informed analysis has rarely been greater, and we thank you for allowing MEF to be one of your sources on this key region. If you enjoyed this issue of the MEF Dispatch, please forward it to a friend. We’ll be back Monday with another issue.

Sincerely,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch