| After six years in power, this election was framed as a referendum on Amlo’s leadership. Though he has weathered numerous controversies and failed to deliver on a number of of his initial promises, the outgoing president remains popular. This is largely because of his economic policies: under Morena there was a minimum wage hike, direct cash transfers and subsidies for struggling families, among other measures, lifting an estimated five million people out of poverty. “President López Obrador has essentially built a political base on cash transfers like some other presidents in Latin America,” Zepeda Gil says. Sheinbaum has promised more of the same: “more rights, a welfare state, education, health, access to housing, and that a living wage is a right, not a privilege”. The first female president Sheinbaum’s win comes during a broader feminist battle to secure rights for women across Mexico. Last October, the supreme court decriminalised abortion across the country, a major step towards enshrining reproductive rights in law. Electoral reform that mandated gender parity has meant that women make up half of congress, with many occupying senior roles in political and judicial office – a remarkable feat considering that women only gained the right to vote in 1953. For context, women only make up 28% of lawmakers in the US House of Representatives. These gains in representation have not necessarily converted into real power or change, however. “The problem is that, beyond female representation in politics, there has not been much translation into policy so far – though this win is symbolically important,” Zepeda Gil says. While they occupy some of the most senior positions in the most important institutions in the country, there are still many issues that plague women. Femicide rates remain high – around 10 women are murdered in Mexico every day and thousands more are missing. Violence against women and girls also often goes unpunished. Sheinbaum carries this tension herself in many ways – she is considered a protege of Amlo, who was a political mentor to her. However, Amlo has had a “disdain” towards Mexico’s burgeoning feminist movement, Zepeda Gil says, often finding himself at odds with women’s rights groups. Protests erupted in 2021 after his party nominated Félix Salgado Macedonio as a candidate for governor of Guerrero State despite accusations by five women of rape and sexual harassment. Amlo defended Salgado, accusing critics of “politicking”. During the pandemic, his government cut funding for women’s shelters and he has accused feminist groups of being infiltrated by conservatives who aim to attack his government. “While we would hope the next president will address these issues there is no guarantee that will happen,” Zepeda Gil says. Political violence More than thirty candidates were reportedly killed during this particularly bloody election cycle. According to the Wall Street Journal,more than 200 government officials, candidates and activists have been shot since September. “To be precise, the political violence is localised to where criminal organisations have widespread presence and where they are competing,” Zepeda Gil says. Criminal organisations that are involved mainly with drug trafficking, human trafficking or oil tapping have been focused on the thousands of local elections, likely because it is easiest to influence politics at that level. “Vice versa, if you don’t see political violence somewhere, that means there might be some kind of soft agreement with criminal organisations to guarantee protection, even if the local authority is not involved in criminality. There are a wide range of agreements between criminal organisations and politicians: some might be corrupt, some even might be directly involved but mostly it’s about protection.” The government simply does not have the resources to deal with the scale of the problem, creating an atmosphere of impunity. “The president promised to increase the number of police and military officers in the election but as these are massive elections there are not enough resources to protect every candidate in Mexico,” Zepeda Gil says. The big issues facing Sheinbaum Sheinbaum will be riding high from this landslide victory, but significant problems await her. Her predecessor has left her with a significant budget deficit and sluggish economic growth, as well as the growing and unwieldy problem of security and crime. And then there is the Donald Trump-shaped elephant in the room. If he wins the US election, the Mexican government could be completely derailed, and forced to focus on managing what could become a highly volatile political and economic relationship. Both of the previous governments had to concede a lot during Trump’s last stint as president, effectively becoming “a second border force for the US government” to avoid a trade war, Zepeda Gil says – although the Morena government did draw the line at a “safe third country” agreement that would have effectively made Mexico responsible for all asylum seekers looking to enter the US from Central America. “With tight fiscal constraints, climate change and Donald Trump in the presidency, Sheinbaum could be in for a very very difficult term,” Zepeda Gil adds. | 