What’s going on here? China released disappointing inflation data for June on Wednesday, and the numbers suggest the world’s second-biggest economy could use a pep talk. What does this mean? While most major economies are contending with inflation, China is nearing deflationary territory. Consumer prices were 0.2% higher in June than the same time a year ago, less than the 0.4% expected. The core consumer price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, wasn’t much different. It rose just 0.6% compared to last June – the same tiny increase that China reported in May. Prices of products straight from the factory have been on the slide since 2022, too. Now, against the backdrop of bigger bills every time you pick up milk, falling prices might sound like a relief. But deflation is a real stumbling block, indicating that folk aren’t spending enough to keep the economy moving. And unless China can bolster its struggling real estate market, which is shaking folks’ financial confidence, purse strings are unlikely to loosen anytime soon. Why should I care? Zooming out: Double trouble. China’s fortunes now rest on the export industry. It’s bad timing, then, that the country’s being stamped with trade tariffs left, right, and center. China has a glut of EVs that it wants to shift to the US and Europe, at government-subsidized prices that the likes of Tesla can’t compete with. The US has already brought in a 100% tax on Chinese EVs, while Europe has fees up to 38%. The bigger picture: More arguments than a university debate club. China isn’t taking tariffs lying down. The country’s opened an investigation into European Union trade barriers, questioning whether the new tariffs are an illegal barrier to free trade. Along with cars, China’s looking into sectors like rail, solar, and wind power – all of which Europe is trying to protect from Chinese competition. No wonder China is stuck on many investors’ “avoid” lists. |