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Friday, July 19, 2024
What fortuitous timing we have. Today's newsletter is all about the top prospects remaining in the minors, and it just so happens to coincide with the promotion of one of the last, best hitting prospects remaining in the minors: Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson, who is set to make his MLB debut when play resumes today against the Angels. 
Wilson was not a prospect on too many Fantasy players' radars before this season, but he's certainly on them now. Last year's No. 6 overall pick has forced his way to the majors by hitting -- and this is not a typo -- .438/.475/.687 through 46 games, mostly at Double-A and Triple-A. As might expect from that line, Wilson is an extreme contact hitter, striking out just 13 times in 200 plate appearances, with a whiff rate at Triple-A of just 2.6%; no other player at the level is even below 8%. 
Of course, as you might also suspect, Wilson isn't much of a power hitter either -- he has seven homers in his 46 games but also has an average exit velocity below 85 mph at Triple-A. And he also doesn't run much, with just six steals in 72 total minor-league games. It's a weird profile for Fantasy, and it's one I'm inclined to be skeptical of -- he seems likely to be a major-leaguer in some form or another, but the only other player to make this kind of profile really work is Luis Arraez , and he's typically a pretty fringe-y Fantasy option unless he's running a batting average well north of .300. 
Wilson might do that. He might take the league by storm. But if he hits, say, .290 -- a very good mark, to be clear! -- he's probably just a fringe Fantasy option unless the power plays up much better than expected. But what is true of every top prospect call-up is true of Wilson: The high-end upside outcomes are worth chasing, even if the likeliest scenario is he doesn't make much of an impact. Looking at the waiver wire in one of my 12-team Roto leagues shows names like J.P. Crawford, Xavier Edwards, and Brayan Rocchio as the best SS available on waivers, so yeah, I'll take the flier on Wilson and see if he can pull a Steven Kwan or something. 
Wilson does crack Scott White's mid-season top-50 prospects list, of course, and we'll get to that shortly. But before we do, we're going to do a quick look at what you need to set your lineups for the upcoming week, which begins today at 2:20 p.m. ET. The sprint to the end of the season begins now. 
Let's get to it:
Week 17 Preview
Some Fantasy leagues are treating this weekend's games as if they are their own separate week, while others are combining this weekend and next. If you are in the former camp, setting your lineup is pretty easy: Every team plays three games except the Brewers and Twins , who don't play Friday. That means that roughly 40% of starting pitchers aren't even in the discussion, and almost all hitters have equal numbers of games, so just start your best hitters and your pitchers who are playing this weekend. Simple enough.
If you're playing out the long week, here's Scott's lineup advice:  
Best hitter matchups for Week 17:
1. Giants @COL3, @LAD4, COL4
2. Rockies SF3, BOS3, @SF4
3. Angels @OAK3, @SEA3, OAK4
4. Athletics LAA3, HOU3, @LAA4
5. Braves STL3, CIN3, @NYM4
Worst hitter matchups for Week 17:
1. Twins MIL2, PHI3, @DET3
2. Brewers @MIN2, @CHC3, MIA3
3. Blue Jays DET3, TB3, TEX3
4. Reds @WAS3, @ATL3, @TB3
5. Yankees TB4, NYM2, @BOS3
Top sleeper hitters for Week 17:
  1. Jesse Winker, OF, Nationals (77%) CIN3, SD3, @STL3
  2. Jorge Soler, DH, Giants (57%) @COL3, @LAD4, COL4
  3. Luis Garcia, 2B, Nationals (58%) CIN3, SD3, @STL3
  4. Michael Toglia, 1B, Rockies (28%) SF3, BOS3, @SF4
  5. Lawrence Butler, OF, Athletics (22%) LAA3, HOU3, @LAA4
There's no two-start pitcher rankings for this week because, well, everyone is a two-start pitcher in a 10-day week, more or less. 
Top sleeper pitches for Week 17:
  1. Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks (76%) at CHC, vs. PIT
  2. Andrew Heaney, Rangers (35%) vs. CHW, at TOR
  3. Reese Olson, Tigers (75%) at TOR, at CLE
  4. Tyler Anderson, Angels (78%) at OAK, vs. OAK
  5. Jose Soriano , Angels (39%) at OAK, vs. OAK
Before we get to Scott's updates list, I've got some thoughts on the state of prospects for you. If you've been waiting for top prospects to save your season, you should know by now that it probably isn't going to happen. 
Rookie-eligible hitters have just a .665 OPS this season, the third-worst of the past 20 years, and while that's partially a result of the deflated offensive environment this season, it doesn't explain everything. For example, rookie pitchers collectively have just a 4.35 ERA this season, just the seventh-lowest of the past 20 seasons. As we speak, there is just a single player who had no MLB experience prior to 2024 who both qualifies for the batting title and has at least a league-average OPS:  Jackson Merrill. And this isn't a one-year trend, either, as Masataka Yoshida was the only one who managed it last season. Lowering the threshold to a 90 OPS+, and  Colt Keith and  Andy Pages join Merrill, which is better than last season, but that isn't saying much. 
Looking back on the top prospects from before the season, you've got guys who absolutely faceplanted, like Jackson Holliday, Scott White's No. 1 rated prospect coming into the season, who was back in Triple-A before the end of April and doesn't look particularly close to returning. Jackson Chourio (No. 2) and  Wyatt Langford (No. 3) have stuck around, but have only recently begun showing the ability to be difference-makers for Fantasy, while later call-ups like Noelvi Marte (No. 9) and  James Wood  (No. 10) haven't even really shown that in their brief stays. 
On the pitching side, we do at least have Paul Skenes (No. 8), and guys like Jared Jones and  Luis Gil  have been must-start pitchers for stretches, if not as consistently as we'd have liked. But on the whole, I think it's fair to say that the biggest name prospects this year have, by and large, been the biggest disappointments for Fantasy.
And yet, prospects are still worth getting excited about when they get the call mid-season, and whenever Holliday, Junior Caminero, and Jasson Dominguez  make their returns to the majors, I'll be right here telling you to add them. Maybe with a bit more trepidation than I would have had a couple of years ago, given how much of a struggle it has been for the top guys making their debuts in recent years. But top prospects are still one of the best ways to get projectable value for your buck in Fantasy, because when they do hit … well, just think about what an edge having Skenes, Jones, or Gil has been this season, relative to what they cost to acquire.
Before we get to the list of Scott's top prospects, there's one more thing to note here: Scott isn't ranking players who still have prospect eligibility but who have already made their MLB debut. In part because, as Scott notes, "the overall prospect landscape is pretty lacking right now." There was a great piece on BaseballProspectus.com about why that might be , but the point is: The prospect landscape suddenly looks a lot more shallow in terms of sure-fire impact bats than we're used to seeing. This year's MLB draft featured several college prospects who very well could change that -- including Scott's No. 6 and No. 7 prospects! -- but until they've actually faced professional opponents and scouting reports, it's largely theoretical.
Here are Scott's top-10 prospects, and you can find the full list -- including where James Wood, Jackson Holliday, and others slot in -- here: 
1. Jackson Jobe, SP, Tigers
Age: 21
2024 levels: High-A, Double-A
2024 stats: 1.77 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 35 2/3 IP, 16 BB, 48 K
Jobe still has yet to take on a true starter's workload, being limited this year by a hamstring injury, but he's clearly the nastiest pitcher the minors have to offer, armed with a rising triple-digit fastball and a 3,000-rpm slider.
Second half call-up is ... possible.
2. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
Age: 22
2024 levels: High-A, Triple-A
2024 stats: .309 BA (272 AB), 22 HR, 1.030 OPS, 33 BB, 76 K
There's nothing phony about Mayo's power, judging by his Marcell Ozuna-like exit velocity readings. Defense may be the only reason he hasn't assumed the Orioles' third base job already.
Second half call-up is  ... expected.
Age: 22
2024 levels: Double-A, Triple-A
2024 stats: .267 BA (277 AB), 8 HR, 20 SB, .764 OPS, 22 BB, 69 K
The second pick in last year's draft has fallen short of expectations in what's been a tough year for top prospects in general. He's still a near-perfect prospect on paper and may simply need more time given how quickly the Nationals have moved him.
Second half call-up is ... possible.  
4. Walker Jenkins, OF, Twins
Age: 19
2024 levels: Rookie ball, Low-A
2024 stats: .290 BA (124 AB), 2 HR, 6 SB, .835 OPS, 28 BB, 17 K
The No. 5 pick last year may not be a total world-beater yet, but his upside is evident both in his superlative plate discipline and better-than-expected exit velocity readings for a 19-year-old.
Second half call-up is ... not happening.
Age: 21
2024 levels: has not played -- injured
2022 stats: 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 103 2/3 IP, 25 BB, 155 K
Just because he's sitting out a second straight year due to Tommy John surgery doesn't mean we should forget that Painter was pushing for a rotation spot at age 19, boasting an explosive arsenal and the control to match.
Second half call-up is ... not happening.
6. Charlie Condon, 3B, Rockies
Age: 21
2024 levels: has not played -- drafted in July
Condon homered 37 times in 60 games for the University of Georgia this year, generating power to all fields with his massive 6-foot-6 frame. He could be an absolute wrecking ball with the Rockies, who just took him third overall.
Second half call-up is ... unlikely.  
7. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Guardians
Age: 21
2024 levels: has not played -- drafted in July
This year's No. 1 pick doesn't have the raw power Condon does, but he excels at driving the ball to his pull side and is a more balanced player overall, demonstrating advanced bat-to-ball skills and some aptitude for stealing bases.
Second half call-up is ... unlikely.
Age: 20
2024 levels: Double-A
2024 stats: .241 BA (245 AB), 10 HR, 8 SB, .790 OPS, 39 BB, 73 K
Anthony's power remains largely theoretical still, but he put his big exit velocity readings to good use All-Star weekend, winning the inaugural Future Skills Showcase with a series of gargantuan home runs. Good on-base skills, too. 
Second half call-up is  ... unlikely.
9. Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
Age: 19
2024 levels: Double-A
2024 stats: .274 BA (285 AB), 12 HR, 7 SB, .787 OPS, 27 BB, 65 K
Basallo has taken a step back this year after looking like a near-perfect hitting prospect last year, but he was also contending with an elbow issue early on. Realistically, he's probably destined for first base.
Second half call-up is  ... unlikely.
10. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins
Age: 21
2024 levels: Rookie ball, Double-A
2024 stats: .298 BA (131 AB), 8 HR, 9 SB, 1.093 OPS, 43 BB, 49 K
Rodriguez has a passivity problem that he'll need to work out in the upper minors, but it's hard not to drool over the .474 on-base percentage, particularly when it comes with legitimate power and speed.
Second half call-up is ... unlikely.
 
 
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