By Michael Shepherd - March 7, 2023
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📷 Tim Cook of Messer Truck Equipment (right) gives New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (center) and former Maine Gov. Paul LePage a tour of his facility in Westbrook on July 13, 2022. (BDN photo by Troy R. Bennett)

Good morning from Augusta. The Legislature is in Tuesday. Here are the House and Senate calendars, plus the committee agenda.

What we're watching today

This governor's presidential flirtation feels like a final ride for a certain kind of New England Republican. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu's state remains only a tick to the right of Democratic-controlled Maine, where Republicans have looked longingly across the border for years at the Granite State as a limited-government utopia in part because of the absence of an income tax. It remains a swing state, however.

But Sununu makes it look easy there. His approval rating as measured by Morning Consult was at 59 percent in the last quarter of 2022. With a similar share of votes, he cruised to reelection even as a Democratic senator held her seat. While that was down from his landslide margin two years earlier, it was about as easy as you can have it in a contested state.

The son of a former governor turned White House chief of staff and the brother of a former senator, he unceremoniously turned down entreaties from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, to run for that chamber last year, deriding the "gridlock and politics" of Washington in a 2021 speech.

This does not mean that he lacks ambition. He is now kicking the tires on a presidential run, doing frequent TV hits in which he predicts former President Donald Trump will not be the 2024 nominee. He is also prompting pieces from The New York Times and Wall Street Journal mulling whether a Republican who is supportive of basic abortion rights could win the nod.

"Probably not" seems to be the answer. Sununu rated as his state's most popular politician in a February poll from the University of New Hampshire. But he was barely registering in presidential polling there a month earlier, sitting at 4 percent and in fourth place. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis led at 42 percent, a spot above Trump at 30 percent. This has led Sununu to say DeSantis would win New Hampshire and Florida if the primaries were now.

Remarks like that do not seem to bode well for a run, but he is still answering questions on going for the White House. He has downplayed the importance of his personal views on abortion, noting that changes passed under him limit abortions past 24 weeks and that last year's landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision leaves the matter to states.

"Not that it's not an important issue, but folks are going to really have to define themselves as to where they are," he told NBC's "Meet the Press."

Another moderate Republican, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, declined a run this week. Only Trump and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are the major Republicans running now. Some others including Sen. Susan Collins, a centrist Trump skeptic, are talking up Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who is conservative but could appeal to some moderates.

Both Collins and Sununu have shown that moderate Republicans still have currency here. She won a heavily nationalized 2020 campaign in a Maine that is moving to the left in large part due to keeping margins close in the Portland suburbs where arch-conservative former Gov. Paul LePage lost big in 2022.

Collins' position toward the middle of her chamber makes her a player in national politics, but there are fewer colleagues with her orientation now. Both she and Sununu have maintained ties to the rest of the party. For example, both backed LePage in his 2022 run and he dinged Maine's income tax after a big lottery jackpot was won here.

But the unique aspects of his appeal make his presidential flirtation feel like one of the last rides in national electoral politics for the classic New England brand of more moderate Republicanism. The length of time he spends on the stage will give us more information about how it will stand up on the landscape.

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News and notes

📷 Rep. Scott Cyrway, R-Albion, is pictured as a member of the Maine Senate at the State House in Augusta on June 30, 2021. (BDN photo by Troy R. Bennett)

💩 Two Republicans try to help coordinate a sludge crisis response.

◉ Maine is struggling to find a solution to the contaminated sludge building up at water treatment plants across the state, with the Maine Department of Environmental Protection criticizing landfill operator Casella Waste Systems for rejecting proposed solutions that the company deems unworkable.

◉ All hands remain on deck. Reps. Scott Cyrway, R-Albion, and Michael Soboleski, R-Phillips, are helping the state coordinate trucking and logistics if officials can find a place to take the waste that is contaminated with "forever chemicals" linked to health problems.

◉ They have not found one so far. Cyrway said the work extends as far as engaging Maine manufacturers and others who could set up burn sites for the sludge, even though the Maine DEP says nobody here is licensed to do so, which puts that option far down the contingency plan list at the moment.

◉ "I think we're going to have a solution relatively soon," Soboleski said. "I just know that [Maine DEP Commissioner Melanie Loyzim] and her team are working tirelessly on this. They're working hard."

🚪 Paid leave begins working its way through the Legislature today.

◉ We should get some more early signs of how the complex issue of paid family and medical leave will be handled by this year by lawmakers on Tuesday, when members of a state commission that put together a proposal on the matter will brief the labor committee. Watch it at 1 p.m.

◉ Top Republicans voiced early skepticism of this type of insurance program, but advocates behind it are queuing up a 2024 referendum on the subject if the Legislature does not address it. This could force action on a type of proposal that has polled well recently.

🏀 The governor won't take sides in a basketball rivalry.

◉ Courtside reporter Greg Levinsky of Maine Public tried his best to get Gov. Janet Mills to disclose her rooting interest during the Class AA girls' basketball championship game between Oxford Hills and Gorham in Portland on Tuesday, but he had no luck despite Mills spending her freshman year at Gorham.

◉ "The [career and technical school at Oxford Hills] is doing a great job, but Gorham has a place in my heart too," she said. "So, I'm not picking favorites. I'm here to cheer them both on."

◉ Oxford Hills didn't need the governor's help, beating Gorham 62-25 for their third Gold Ball since 2019.

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What we're reading

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