By Kevin Sullivan on Mar 11, 2016 05:07 pm
Saudi Arabia's recent decision to suspend billions in military aid to Lebanon has put the tiny Mediterranean nation on the edge of economic crisis, and has also left more than a few Saudi watchers scratching their heads. Why, if it is so intent on maintaining its foothold across the Middle East, would the Saudis seemingly surrender Lebanon to Iran? Lebanon's Sunni-backed Future Movement has historically enjoyed strong ties with the Saudi monarchy, but the Lebanese government's recent failure to unequivocally condemn the January attack on Saudi Arabia's embassy in Tehran rubbed the Saudi royals the wrong way, prompting it to take more punitive steps against Beirut. Hezbollah, the Iran proxy-cum-political party that maintains a significant grip on Lebanon's fractious confessional government, enjoys sizeable support from the country's Shiite community, much to Riyadh's chagrin. All of this leaves Lebanon in a rather tenuous position. Without the military hardware and training Saudi Arabia pledged to purchase for them, Lebanon's Future Movement has little hope of balancing out Hezbollah's -- and by default Iran's -- influence in their country's affairs. Hezbollah has virtual veto power over Lebanese politics, and the group's involvement in the civil war in neighboring Syria has only compounded the sectarian tensions in the country. All geopolitics is local These disciplinary measures against Lebanon demonstrate just how interconnected the increasing number of Mideast crises have become. As Iran and Saudi Arabia continue to escalate their cold war, parochial conflicts have adopted a more geopolitical complexion. "Hezbollah has longstanding ties to the Houthi rebels in Yemen and has provided advisers to their forces," explains Al-Monitor's Bruce Riedel. "For its part, Hezbollah is now calling for the Lebanese government to accept Iranian aid to fill the gap left by the Saudis." That Hezbollah's involvement in Saudi Arabia's costly campaign in Yemen -- in addition to its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad -- would compel the kingdom to punish Lebanon suggests that a kind of butterfly effect is now occurring across much of the Middle East, one that is unpredictable, dangerous, and touches the lives of millions. The Saudis are of course not alone in their efforts to exacerbate regional frustrations for their own gain. Iran too has worked to untether the Saudi monarchy from its traditionally reliable allies. The Islamic Republic's announcement that it would financially compensate the families of Palestinians killed in the recent wave of attacks against Israelis has ruffled the feathers of Palestinian Authority officials in Ramallah, in particular the body's aging president, Saudi ally Mahmoud Abbas. Such gestures suggest that both Iran and Saudi Arabia, after years of propping up and paying out to a variety of proxies, are now coming to collect on their investments. Both regimes, however, are starting brush fires that they mightn't be able to so easily put out -- fires that just might engulf their own restive communities. "The fact that dissatisfied minorities populate the oil-rich regions of Iran and Saudi Arabia creates an ironic parallel in which in the rivalry between two of the Middle East's larger powers often amounts to the pot calling the kettle black," writes James Dorsey of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, alluding to the Ahwazi Arab region of Khuzestan in Iran and Saudi Arabia's majority Shiite Eastern Province. And while speculation about possible insurrection in either of these territories remains, for now, predominantly the province of overzealous op-ed pages, neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia can assume that their territorial integrity will remain sacrosanct; not as a number of other once-immutable Mideast regimes crumble before their very eyes. If, however, the Saudis and Iranians find the notion of turning their cold war into a cold peace an unattractive one, then it remains up to the parties actually fighting and dying to withdraw from the two powers' regional jostle. Reports that Yemen's Shiite Houthi rebels have asked their allies in Tehran to stay out of Yemeni affairs are encouraging, and indicate that geography often trumps sect and ideology. Both Tehran and Riyadh, moreover, will need to learn to coexist and respect each other's spheres of influence for there to be any semblance of stability in the region moving forward. It's a difficult lesson that neither seems fully prepared to learn just yet, but it is one that will only grow in importance as world powers work to end the bloodshed in Syria and attempt to stitch the Middle East back together again. More on this: When Elephants Battle -- The Economist Saudi Arabia Has a Shiite Problem -- Foreign Policy Khuzestan Tells Story of Persia's Rise, Fall -- Al-Monitor Saudis Turn Screws on Lebanon's Economy -- Financial Times Feedback Questions, comments, or complaints? Feel free to send us an email, or reach out on Twitter @kevinbsullivan. And be sure to check for all of the latest news and analysis on the Middle East at RealClearWorld.com.
Read in browser »
| 
