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Hi John, here's what you need to know for June 22nd in 3:09 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a cappuccino at 220 Grad in Salzburg, Austria (20°C/68°F ☔)

Today's big stories

  1. German fintech firm Wirecard’s stock plummeted after investigators found a $2 billion black hole in its accounts
  2. Ray Dalio’s hedge fund reckons stalling globalization, rising corporate taxes, and surging debt could hammer stocks – Read Now
  3. Friday was a turbulent day for investors, thanks to the expiry of multiple options and futures contracts
1/3

The Penny Drops

The Penny Drops

What’s Going On Here?

Shares of German payments processor Wirecard fell over 70% late last week after it emerged that the company had managed to mislay over $2 billion of cash.

What Does This Mean?

For years, “short sellers” – who bet a company’s share price will decline and sometimes campaign publicly to that end – have argued Wirecard’s stock shouldn’t be as valuable as it was: something didn’t add up in the company’s accounts. Time after time, however, Wirecard batted back the claims, silencing many naysayers.

Until now, that is. Delaying the publication of its 2019 earnings for the fourth time, Wirecard revealed that independent accountants couldn’t confirm the existence of $2.1 billion it claimed it had on hand. Two Asian banks alleged to have held Wirecard’s cash denied on Friday that the firm was a client, with one suggesting that a rogue employee might have falsified documents for Wirecard in the past. Shortly after that bombshell, Wirecard’s CEO resigned.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: A long way down.
Wirecard’s stock collapsed on Thursday and Friday: few dared hazard a guess at just how bad things might be for the German tech hero that was once more valuable than Deutsche Bank. Adding to the misery, some $2.3 billion worth of Wirecard’s loans may get called in if it doesn’t find its missing cash – and investment bank Morgan Stanley estimates that, absent its missing billions, the company only has $250 million in the kitty. One group benefiting from Wirecard’s demise, however, are those aforementioned short sellers

The bigger picture: Who’s to blame?
Company analysts often find it hard to call out a legit-looking earnings report even when something seems amiss – and as positive opinions mean more business for their advisory colleagues, it’s perhaps unsurprising they didn’t catch Wirecard. The role of accountancy firm EY in signing off previous results is likely to come in for serious scrutiny, though, especially given investigations for other conflicts of interest as recently as this year.

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2/3 Premium

X-Ray Vision

What’s Going On Here?

The global pandemic could undo 20 years of increasing profit margins that have juiced stock market returns, threatening a “lost decade” for investors, according to Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates. Our analysts examined the three trends the world’s biggest hedge fund reckons could drive stock market returns to zero.

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3/3

Double, Double, Toil And Trouble

Double, Double, Toil And Trouble

What’s Going On Here?

Something wicked this way came on Friday as a “quadruple witching day” in the US brought the potential for higher-than-normal trading volumes and positively Jacobean volatility.

What Does This Mean?

No, a fourth sorceress hasn’t joined the cast of Shakespeare’s great tragedy. Quadruple witching day is instead the term investors use when several major US options and futures contracts simultaneously expire – which often coincides with a rebalancing of major stock market indexes.

A stock futures contract obliges its owner to buy shares at a set price on a predetermined date – while an options contract gives its holder the choice of doing so. With many such contracts expiring on Friday – including $1.8 trillion worth of S&P 500-based options – investors had to decide whether to buy and keep the related shares or else “roll” their contracts forward by buying options or futures with a later expiry date.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Easy does it.
According to investment bank Goldman Sachs, only about a third of the expiring S&P 500 options were within 10% of the index’s price last week. The further from the mark they are, the lower the options’ value – and so there weren’t actually that many fluctuating wildly in price. Indeed, Goldman argued prior to Friday that June options were less likely to generate market-moving flows of cash into and out of stocks than their sheer volume would ordinarily imply.

For markets: As clear as mud.
Investors updating their options and futures positions alongside others doing business as usual in the stock market is a recipe for elevated price swings – both up and down. After rising some 40% from their March trough, some analysts reckon US stocks are set for a downward trend this week – while also acknowledging that, like first-year Transfiguration, the outcome of quadruple witching is difficult to predict (tweet this).

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“Either you run the day or the day runs you.”

– Jim Rohn (an American entrepreneur, author, and motivational speaker)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Decision Time

“What gives telecoms companies their ‘defensive’ nature?”

– Katie in the UK

“Well, Katie, a defensive company is one whose earnings remain pretty stable no matter what the state of the economy. Defensive companies tend to make products people need no matter what. In the case of telecoms firms, products and services come with long contracts attached, which gives both them and their investors some certainty over their income. Telecoms services are also ever-more essential: can you imagine cutting off your cell phone or losing broadband access right now? Exactly: telecoms are one of the last things people stop spending on when times are tough.”

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Our first event in July will be about the country that has the highest number of unicorn companies per capita in the world… Can you guess which country? Scroll down and see for yourself.

🇭🇺 Hungary: What’s Next For The Energy Market? – 6.00pm CET, June 23rd
🇺🇸 USA: Making Sense of Sustainable Investing – 10am PT, June 25th
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🇬🇧 UK: Estonia’s Startup Ecosystem – 5.00pm UK Time, July 1st

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