The following factors are -ve.
- Price is too far from 20 M.A.
- Tail found at the area of over-reaction.
- Wave(5) is so close.
- The price is out of trade channel area.
Professional and smart money investors whatever you called them such as Speculators, Arbitrageurs, Fund managers, insiders, etc. are already entered near the wave (4). Focus on their profit booking for short this stock.
Logically, best short price 466 nearby for maintaining good risk and reward as a protective stop above 474 above. Thinking about everything is exactly what target is targeted 438 and 400 below.
If you want to give higher probability to the your trade, then you must know Investor Psychology.