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Price Action Perspective:
Price is creating a value area where supply and demand are equal.
The control line of the value area has provided eight price touches to confirm the price move, and it has provided five reversals.

In this view, Nifty is on the control line of the value area at 17615. Price has drawn a doji candle on the control line.
There are seven pieces of evidence of a reversal on the control, so the level of 17615 becomes a key level for traders.

In addition, nifty often gives a gap-up after every powerful doji candle. If it has the potential to reverse the price, nifty can reverse with gap-up. (You can see green circles in the chart)

Conclusion:
If Nifty could not sustain above the control line, it would start a downward movement till the lower band of the price area. Price seems strong above the control line, and if the price sustains above 17614, we may see a low 17760-17914-18123+.

Important scenario to look at:

Global Scenario:
– Interest rate hike on the card;
– QE is ending;
– Tapper is in plan;
– Earnings are not as expected;
– Demand getting slow;
– Uncertainty in Russia to US over Ukraine;
– KSA and Yemen issue; and
– Many of growth stocks in US are at 52W low; and
– (Minus) 4.1 World GDP

Indian Scenario:
– Reliance shows exception results;
– IT disappointed;– Banking Insurance Realty doing fine;
– Budget is on the cards. Further, it is expected great expending by the GOI in projects to boost economy.
– GOI to push Make in India;
– FII selling DII buying (SIP and Retail participants investing)