Month/Quarter-End Came Early As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME close today, we can safely say that month-end trades were pulled forward to this morning, and also to yesterday. That means Thursday's reaction to GDP/Claims may have been a bit overdone. In the absence of month-end, it would likely have been a large, in-range correction but not one that tested the range so aggressively. As for today, a friendly response to as-expected PCE inflation left bonds modestly stronger with little fanfare after the morning hours. Econ Data / EventsCore PCE Price Index0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core PCE (y/y)4.6 vs 4.7 f'cast, 4.7 prev Consumer Sentiment64.4 vs 63.9 f'cast, 59.2 prev Market Movement Recap08:59 AM Flat in Asia. Slightly weaker in Europe. Rallying in domestic trading. 10yr down 1.5bps at 3.827. MBS up an eighth. 01:25 PM Modest gains continue. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr down 3bps at 3.811. 04:02 PM Another flat afternoon. MBS up an eighth. 10yr down 2.3bps at 3.819.
Month/Quarter-End Came Early As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME close today, we can safely say that month-end trades were pulled forward to this morning, and also to y... (read more)
We’re halfway through 2023 already. Time flies. It doesn’t seem that long ago when I was a kid and I had to learn how to make my own bowl of cereal with milk. Now there are instructions. Talk about the dumbing down of the population. I don’t know if ... (read more)
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