A Look Back On 2022 Predictions |
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| Last Friday, I (@SteveFlanders22) was scrolling through Twitter when I saw this tweet from Messari founder Ryan Selkis: |
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| For those unaware, this means heâs finished the draft of his famous annual thesis, in which he recaps cryptoâs year and gives predictions for next year.
Because I love pain, I spent the weekend re-reading his 165-page 2022 thesis. My goal was to see how accurately somebody like Selkis, whose often viewed as a thought-leader in the space, can predict the future.
The full results are found here, and they were surprising.
We expected Selkis to get well over half of his predictions wrong, but pretty much nail the big stuff. What we found, however, actually turned out to be the complete opposite. In other words, he was right way more often than he was wrong, but the stuff he was wrong on was pretty consequential.
The best example of this was his bullishness on Luna/Terra, FTX, and CeFi. It goes without saying that if you were super bullish on Luna, FTX, and CeFi lenders like BlockFi (as he was), you wouldâve had a tough year.
This is not to say we blame him for being wrong about these things. Almost everyone was! And like the results show, he actually got a lot of things right. Thereâs also a certain level of appreciation for someone who displays conviction.
But this exercise is more to show our readers that even experts like Selkis donât know for sure what will happen in the future.
Over the next couple of weeks, you will likely be bombarded with predictions for 2023. It happens every year around this time. Read them, learn from them, but take it for what they are â just one personâs opinion.
As 2022 showed us, the volatile and wonky world of crypto is difficult to predict⊠and 2023 wonât be much different.
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New Documentary: The Two Men Destroying America |
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| We just watched a controversial new documentary from the legendary Porter Stansberry. Itâs a shocking exposĂ© of âwokeâ capitalism and tells the untold true story of how our financial system, economy, and even the âsoulâ of our nation is being destroyed by two unelected officials.
It reveals what the powers behind these progressive movements have planned next, and how if theyâre successful, they could financially wipe out millions of Americans.
Click here to stream it now >>
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| By God, thatâs CZâs music!
The Binance mogul and newly minted main character of crypto has struck again, this time by purchasing bankrupt crypto lender Voyagerâs assets for $1.022 billion. (Note: Binance is actually only paying $20 million for Voyager with the rest of the money being used to make Voyager customers whole).
As you might recall, Voyager was bought out by FTX in September for $1.4 billion, beating out an offer from Binance in the process. We donât think we need to remind you why that deal is no longer any good.
Binance has multiple motives behind doing this deal. - For one, it opens them up to a wave of potential new customers. When FTX acquired Voyager, all of Voyagerâs customers would have the option of starting trading accounts on FTX. This aspect found its way into the Binance deal as well.
 - Another potential motive would be to display strength. As we covered last week, there is a lot of uncertainty over Binanceâs financial health right now. And, until recently, there hasnât been much from Binance to assuage those fears. The auditing firm Mazars Group, who recently performed a proof-of-reserves assessment for Binance, abruptly announced that it is pausing all work with crypto companies. That doesnât exactly inspire confidence that Binanceâs proof-of-reserves is as sturdy as Binance wants you to believe. Thus, a big acquisition like this could be a move to show that Binance is financially strong.
 - Finally, it is possible that CZ has caught the philanthropic bug. There's a possibility that CZ truly wants to help Voyagerâs customers get their money back. Effective altruism, if you will.
Unfortunately, as FTX taught us, expensive acquisitions don't automatically equate to financial health.
Thus, our position from last week is unchanged: "Look, we donât know for sure whatâs going on with Binance. Itâs possible that everything turns out fine, and we look back on this laughing. But for whatever itâs worth, many people are beginning to lose faith in the exchange. And as history has shown us time and again, a rush of withdrawals and distrust is never a good sign." In the end, we really hope this works out for Voyagerâs customers. And we really hope that all of the clamors around Binance right now are nothing more than FUD. But for now, or at least until thereâs more transparency, we suggest getting off Binance as quickly as possible.
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47-second trade demo: how to make ANY bear market cough up cash |
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| It's a bloodbath out there...
But while most investors sweat bullets wondering what to do⊠(and where to find ANY safe haven for their money), income trading expert Keith Kaplan has created an "income loop" algorithm that he's showing his readers âŠone that actually FORCES instant cash out of every trade.
That's money in your pocket to offset the insane inflation affecting so many of us. Click here to view a live "demo".
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Grayscale Considering Tender Offer For GBTC |
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| Grayscale Investment Trust (GBTC) started out as a revolutionary way for retail investors to get exposure to BTC without having to take on any potential risk of losing access to their coins. But over the past year, the investment has become more and more of an anchor on individuals' returns.
Thatâs because there is a growing divergence between the price of GBTC and the underlying BTC, which the trust is supposed to track.
As of today, that divergence is to the tune of 47%. To put this in perspective, there are two different ways an investor could internalize this number: - You could be excited. Think about it⊠What this discount means is that you are able to buy BTC at a 47% discount! Sure, you have to pay Grayscaleâs management fee, but you canât beat buying an asset for 47% off. If the discount ever closes due to market forces or GBTC converting to an ETF (which it promises to do), then there is a huge arbitrage opportunity here.
 - You may be upset. Although GBTC is trading at a large discount today, prior to February 2021, it was trading at a premium. And as of today, GBTC is trading at about the largest discount it ever has. What this means is that had you bought GBTC on nearly any day prior to today, you have lost money in regard to the fundâs ratio to the underlying asset, BTC.Â
Now, here at CoinSnacks, weâve spent a few months highlighting some great calls we have made for investors. But, to be intellectually honest, we also need to admit when we have gotten things wrong.
In the case of GBTC, we have been recommending the stock since it went into discount territory. Our thought process was that someday Grayscale would become successful in its bid to convert to an ETF â thus closing out the discount.
Unfortunately, not only has that not happened, but as explained above, the discount has gotten worse.
And although we still believe that one day Grayscale will eventually be approved (or win their lawsuit against the SEC) to convert GBTC into an ETF, there seemed to be no hope for the discount closing in the near future.
But, that may be changing.
Thatâs because this week, Grayscaleâs CEO, Michael Sonnenshein, stated that the firm is considering a tender offer for up to 20% of the outstanding shares of the $10.7 billion trust. A tender offer is basically a buy-back at a specific price, and in theory, should help improve GBTCâs discount with BTC.
So, whatâs the future hold? Honestly, we arenât sure. But with DCG (the parent company of Grayscale) currently running into issues from the FTX fallout, we recommend not trying to make any trade into GBTC without fully understanding the risks involved.
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