| Bah, humbug | The UK's on life support |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for December 11th in 3:06 minutes.

☕️ Finimized with hot chocolate in hand at the Kungsträdgården ice rink in Stockholm, Sweden (27°F/-3°C ☀️)

⏳ Keep it brief

  • Investors in Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank are bracing for lean holiday seasons
  • Economic growth in the UK slowed to a standstill in October

Last Christmas

Last Christmas

What’s Going On Here?

Morgan Stanley – one of the world’s biggest investment banks – isn’t saving anyone from tears this holiday season: it just announced plans to make this Christmas the last one for 1,500 employees globally.

What Does This Mean?

The job cuts – which will mostly impact the technology, operations, and trading divisions – are part of a year-end efficiency push from the bank. That’s no great surprise: Morgan Stanley is currently in the middle of a familiar years-long slump in trading revenue, as more and more of its business shifts away from old-fashioned “humans” and toward digital platforms.

Morgan Stanley is expecting the costs that’ll come with those job cuts – from severance pay to business reorganization – to hit its earnings by between $150 million and $200 million. But at least the bank will know where those costs came from: the firm has been in the spotlight recently after some of its traders concealed as much as $140 million in trading losses.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Once bitten, twice shy.
Investment bank job cuts could be a good thing for investors in the long run, as they should make the banks more efficient and, in turn, more profitable. That could be why a group of the largest US financial companies hit their highest level since 2007 last week, having risen more than 25% this year (tweet this). Investors across the pond might be getting jealous: a similar group of European financial companies is only up 4% this year, weighed down by negative interest rates and a weak economy.

Zooming out: Wham!
Investors on Tuesday received a blunt reminder that Europe’s investment banks are struggling too, with Deutsche Bank halving its revenue growth target for the next three years. The firm’s blaming ultra-low interest rates, as well as steep costs involved in a strategic overhaul that includes job cuts of its own. 18,000, to be precise.

How central banks drive commercial banks’ profits

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How central banks drive commercial banks’ profits

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What The Bleep?

What The Bleep?

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Tuesday showed the UK economy flatlined in October, with annual growth at its slowest pace in nearly seven years. C’mon, don’t you quit on us!

What Does This Mean?

The UK’s services and manufacturing sectors grew in October, but the boost was offset by a big drop in construction activity. Building firms are blaming that ominous symptom on customers who have delayed projects amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty – if not canceled them altogether.

But Brexit-related trauma isn’t the only diagnosis. British voters are set to head to the polls on Thursday, adding to political ups and downs that’ve weighed heavy on the economy this year. Cap that off with a weakening, trade war-hit global economy, and it’s perhaps little wonder the UK is on course for just over 1% growth this year – its worst performance since the financial crisis a decade ago.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: 50ccs of Brexit, stat!
If the polls are to be believed, Britain’s election could give a majority to the country’s pro-Brexit Conservative party – and give them the foothold they need to leave the European Union early next year. And that means policymakers, if all goes to plan, will be able to focus on boosting growth again. That could work out nicely for UK stocks, especially since they’re trading at the biggest discount to their global counterparts in nearly a decade.

The bigger picture: Germany’s stabilizing.
Britain’s not the only major economy dealing with weak growth. Germany – the world’s fourth-largest economy, just ahead of the UK – narrowly avoided a recession this year. But a survey out on Tuesday showed economic sentiment improved far more than forecast after an unexpected boost in October exports. That’s raising hopes for a rebound in Europe’s biggest economy, and could encourage investors – who’ve been pulling money out of the European stock market all year – to jump back in.

Our analysts on what to do when the economy shrinks

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Our analysts on what to do when the economy shrinks

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💬 Quote of the day

“Seek not good from without: seek it within yourselves, or you will never find it.”

– Bertha von Suttner (an Austrian-Bohemian pacifist, novelist, and Nobel laureate)

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