Morgan Stanley's paper planes | UK spends it like Beckham |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for September 9th in 3:14 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Investment bank Morgan Stanley thinks now’s the time to buy US airline stocks
  2. Goldman Sachs outlined 10 reasons why it’s optimistic about stocks’ long-term outlook – Read Now
  3. British consumers splashed more cash last month, boding better for the UK economy
1/3

Fly Me To The Moon

Fly Me To The Moon

What’s Going On Here?

Morgan Stanley wants to let investors play among the stars (or at least the stratosphere): the bank’s analysts reckon now’s the time to buy US airline stocks.

What Does This Mean?

The Chairman of the Board (or at least the transport research team) sees a future in which coronavirus vaccines bring airline passengers back in bulk. In fact, Morgan Stanley predicts demand could return to pre-pandemic levels by late 2021 – two years sooner than most other forecasts. Against that backdrop, the investment bank’s betting domestic airlines with shorter routes and cheaper fares will recover first – and that those which were either previously very profitable or on that trajectory will end up back on top.

All the same, Morgan Stanley warned that a worsening pandemic could drive desperate carriers to slash prices – potentially causing a race to the bottom that would hit everybody’s profits. That risk may be why billionaire investor Warren Buffett sold all his airline stock holdings four months back…

Why Should I Care?

For markets: An uneven runway.
The bank recommended on Tuesday that investors looking to follow its lead buy into both low-cost US carriers and the strongest of the country’s so-called “legacy” airlines – which its analysts believe is Delta Air Lines (tweet this). Investors across the Atlantic, meanwhile, might be minded to board the likes of Ryanair and Wizz Air: they’re currently adding more planes to their fleets even as larger European rivals struggle. Not only should demand for their short-haul routes recover faster than for rivals’ intercontinental fares, but they’ve also got more cash on hand.

The bigger picture: Too big to flail?
Some previously profitable high-flyers are running on fumes after six months up in the air. Troubled European airline group IAG – owner of Iberia and British Airways – is hoping to raise $3 billion from existing investors in order to help it weather the storm: it’s still only flying at 20% of its pre-pandemic level, with hefty overheads burning through $26 million a day.

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2/3 Premium

Ten Reasons Why

While stocks may be in for a bumpy ride in the short term, US bank Goldman Sachs just published a hefty report detailing 10 reasons why it believes the current “bull market” will go on and on.

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3/3

Paying Up

Paying Up

What’s Going On Here?

Fresh credit card data out on Tuesday showed that British consumers upped their spending in August, shelling out for new clothes and staycations.

What Does This Mean?

Barclaycard – which generated just under 30% of banking group Barclays’ total revenue last year – provides a quarter of the UK’s credit cards. It’s therefore got a pretty good idea of who’s spending what and where; and the company’s combined transaction records and research indicate British consumer spending last month was 0.2% higher than the same time last year. Sure, that’s small – but as the first increase since pandemic-induced lockdowns began in March, it could foretell a recovering economy.

According to Barclaycard, particularly perky purchases included home-working equipment and pukka clobber. Refreshed wardrobes may have let Brits take full advantage of the UK’s discount scheme to get people back into restaurants, where spending also rose compared to last August. The rest of the hospitality industry wasn’t so fortunate, however: travel expenditure fell 61%.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: No cash please, we’re British.
Reduced use of germ-carrying cash in response to coronavirus may have helped credit and debit card spending grow somewhat – but its star has been waning for a while. Analysts forecast that by 2028 just 9% of UK transactions will involve cash, even as banknote production continues to rise in both Britain and the US. Investors know which way the wind is blowing, however: payments firm Square’s stock has soared 280% since March, PayPal’s shares have almost doubled, and Ant Financial’s forthcoming stock listing might be the largest ever.

For markets: Sailing over a cardboard sea.
The surge of online shopping in recent months gaveth and tooketh away from UK logistics giant Royal Mail. It said on Tuesday that having more packages to deliver would boost its annual revenue – but that coronavirus disruptions and an ongoing struggle to adapt to life after letters meant it’d still make a loss this year.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The most effective way to do it, is to do it.”

– Amelia Earhart (an American aviation pioneer and author)
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