Morning Briefing | Ohio’s Issue 1 red istricting amendment

Ohio’s Issue 1 could have national consequences.

In today’s Morning Briefing, we explain what would happen if the amendment passes and what could happen to the makeup of the U.S. House of Representatives. We also give you an update on a bill that would require proof of U.S. citizenship in order to register to vote in Ohio.

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The newsletter should take about 4 minutes, 23 seconds to read.

Issue 1 vote could impact balance of power in U.S. House

Credit: NYT

The outcome of Ohio’s Issue 1 redistricting amendment could have national consequences considering it would impact how congressional districts are drawn and the U.S. House majority rests on razor thin margins.

• What Issue 1 would do: If approved, it would amend the Ohio Constitution to replace the current politician-led redistricting process with a citizen commission.

• Proportionality standard: If Ohioans vote for a party’s statewide candidates 60% of the time, then that party should be favored in about 60% of the state’s legislative and congressional districts; Issue 1 would update the map drawing rules to make that proportionality standard easier to hit.

• Benefit to Ohio Democrats: If Issue 1 passes and can produce a map that adheres to proportionality, it could immediately benefit Ohio Democrats in Congress as soon as the 2026 election.

• Current representatives in the U.S. House: Of the state’s current 15 representatives in the U.S. House, 10 are Republicans and five are Democrats for about a 67% to 33% split. If Issue 1 used recent voting patterns, it would require that 55.1% of Ohio’s congressional districts lean Republican. This gives Democrats a chance to flip two congressional seats.

• National impact: Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives 220-212. So flipping four seats across the country is all it would take to tilt that balance of power.

• Out-of-state spending: The congressional stakes have helped attract millions in out-of-state spending to the campaigns advocating for and opposing Issue 1.

— Citizens Not Politicians, the group that wrote the amendment, has drawn in $39.6 million since the start of the year. This includes Ohio donations summing to $7.1 million, and out-of-state contributors to the tune of $32.6 million, or more than 82% of its total contributions.

— Its biggest contributors have been liberal dark money groups, including $10.5 million from Article IV in Virginia and $6.7 million from the Sixteen Thirty fund in Washington, D.C.

— Ohio Works, the official opposition campaign, has been out-raised with only $5.6 million in contributions since the start of the year.

Local impact: U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton said that maps created under Issue 1 might separate Dayton and Wright-Patterson Air Force base into different congressional districts, thus hampering local and federal advocacy partnerships.

Local senator’s bill would require proof of citizenship for voter registration

A Dayton-area state senator introduced a bill Wednesday that would require proof of U.S. citizenship in order to register to vote in Ohio.

• Proof of citizenship: It could include current or expired Ohio driver’s licenses or state ID; other states’ IDs or driver’s licenses; birth certificates; current or expired U.S. passports; or certificates of naturalization.

• Current law: Ohioans registering to vote under current law must provide a driver’s license or state identification number, or the last four digits of their Social Security number.

• What Antani is saying: “Securing Ohio’s elections must be our top priority. This bill will stop illegal immigrants from voting in our elections...We must take every precaution to ensure they don’t vote in our elections.”

• Voter fraud: It’s exceedingly rare, according to studies by groups such as the liberal-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, the conservative Heritage Foundation and the libertarian-leaning CATO Institute. Ohio has about 8 million registered voters.

What to know today

• One big takeaway: Removing about 300 horses from the Warren County Fairgrounds is estimated to impact hundreds of jobs and families.

• Big move of the day: CFD Research, a defense contractor with a growing Beavercreek presence, has won a new contract to help Air Force researchers adapt sensors to battlefield situations.

• Tip of the day: When you should stop watering your plants.

• Person to know today: Kraig Hagler. The Greene County Treasurer has been appointed as interim Greene County Auditor.

• Election 2024: The outcome of Tuesday’s election will affect your life in myriad ways. Here’s a rundown of the potential impact each of your votes might have.

• Stat of the day: Although case levels have declined from the peak of the pandemic, an average of 35 Ohioans still die of COVID-19 each week. For the year, the number of Ohioans who have died of COVID-19 is approaching 1,000.

• Things to do: Shows to see in November: “Carrie,” “Elf In Concert,” Mike Birbiglia and several more.

• Fall back: It’s time to “fall back” this weekend with the end of Daylight Saving Time, which means an extra hour of sleep.

• Dayton Flyers: Dayton Flyers guard Marvel Allen will miss his second straight season with a knee injury.

• Photo of the day: Fall colors are on full display in the Dayton area. Here is a collection of images from the Dayton Daily News photo staff.