Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs

The average didn't quite make it back to the multidecade highs seen last week, but the average borrower would see little--if any--difference in today's rate quotes. This represents a fairly big jump up from Friday (which saw a nice correction down from Thursday's highs). There are a few culprits--some specific, some general. One specific culprit was the market's reaction to the stop-gap bill that averted the government shutdown. Another specific and more obvious culprit was the stronger-than-expected outcome in today's important manufacturing data. Until that came out, the bond market (which dictates interest rates) looked poised to hold sideways with only moderate losses. Then there's the general motivation that drones on in the background. This is the "higher for longer" rate theme that has been hitting the bond market in waves over the past two years. The most recent wave began 2 weeks ago with the Fed's updated economic projections and rate outlook. At the risk of redundancy, the Fed see's rates staying "higher for longer." The bond market is increasingly forced to comply. There are several economic reports this week that are even more important than this morning's manufacturing data. If these are weaker than expected, rates could come back down. If they're stronger than expected, it would only reiterate the higher for longer narrative, almost certainly resulting in new multi-decade highs for mortgage rates. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

October 2, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs The average didn't quite make it back to the multidecade highs seen last week, but the average borrower would see little--if any--difference in today's rate quotes. This represents a fairly big jump up from Friday (which saw a nice correction d... (read more) MBS Commentary With Shutdown Averted, Bonds Get Back to Same Old Trend Nearly 2 weeks ago, the Fed announcement (specifically, the economic projections and dot plot) kicked off a repricing trend in the bond market otherwise known as "higher for longer." The net effect had been excess upward pressure on longer-term... (read more) Rob Chrisman Optimization, Document Tracking, MSR Financing Products; Saving Money on Credit Reports and CE As President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 99th birthday seven months into hospice, welcome to the 4th quarter! (Will lenders experience any “Q-4-ia”? Say out loud.) Let’s talk U.S. lists! California, Indiana, Michigan, Texas, and Virginia are top five... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.61% +0.17% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.61% +0.17 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.91% +0.16 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.08% +0.18 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.60% +0.05 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.10% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.08% +0.16 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/2 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.91% +0.16% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.31% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.18 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/28 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.41% +0.10 0.71 15 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.11 1.17 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.34% +0.02 0.78 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/27 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.09 -0.53 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 98.09 -0.53 GNMA 6.0 98.47 -0.53 Pricing as of: 10/2 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.6890 +0.1100 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.112 +0.060 5 YR Treasury 4.717 +0.101 7 YR Treasury 4.730 +0.109 10 YR Treasury 4.689 +0.110 30 YR Treasury 4.802 +0.093 Pricing as of: 10/2 5:31PM EST Latest Video We're now seeing signs the economy is weakening, says PIMCO's Tiffany Wildi... We'll get economic slowing but won't get 'more sinister' period for growth,... Fed's Michael Barr: The economy has shown surprising resilience Construction spending rose 0.5% in August as full-year spending remains pos... Around the Web Marketwatch Why stock-market investors aren't finding comfort in averted government shutdown CNBC 10-year Treasury yield rises as investors weigh interest rate outlook Calculated Risk Blog ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Set Yet Another Record in August" Calculated Risk Blog Housing October 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down 4.7% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 49.0% in September Eye on Housing Property Tax Revenue Climbs as Income Tax Receipts Decline Sharply CNBC BOJ increases Wednesday's bond purchase as 10-year JGB yields hit decade peak CNBC Eight big U.S. bank CEOs to face Senate Banking Committee grilling in December Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3% Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in August Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 7.4% YoY in August Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year CNBC European markets set to start the week positively as data boosts sentiment

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