Mortgage Rates Briefly Hit 3 Week Lows; More Volatility on The Way

There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to the arrival of two long-awaited economic reports. Each has the power to push rates higher or lower on its own. If they both happen to push in the same direction, the shift could be big. The first arrives tomorrow morning in the form of the big monthly jobs report (official name: The Employment Situation). The median forecast sees 180k new payrolls for the month of April compared to 236k in March. Other labor market anecdotes are actually almost unanimous in their suggestion for a higher number. If it comes in much higher than expected, rates would almost certainly be moving higher. The second report--the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--is every bit as important next Wednesday. This is the leading indicator for inflation in the US and it has been one of the leading sources of motivation for interest rates on the occasions where it has surprised the market. It's important to understand that there's no way to know how the data will come out ahead of time compared to the median forecast. It's equally important to understand that those forecasts have already considered everything that can currently be known about the factors that are likely to impact the number. This can be confusing at times when the annual CPI % is falling simply due to the change in composition of the trailing 12 months. We'll discuss this in greater detail on Tuesday.

May 4, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Briefly Hit 3 Week Lows; More Volatility on The Way There's likely no getting around that fact that mortgage rates will be moving noticeably--possibly substantially--in the coming days. This is due to the arrival of two long-awaited economic reports. Each has the power to push rates higher... (read more) MBS Commentary Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report Asymmetric Risk Ahead of Jobs Report Bonds spent time on both sides of 'unchanged' today with much of it in territory that challenged the prevailing range. If yields had to point at one reason to be tra... (read more) Rob Chrisman Fulfillment, Benchmark, Servicing, Home Equity Tools; Disaster Updates; More Banks in Turmoil Inflation? Yes, inflation! Yesterday I flew from San Francisco to Cody, Wyoming for the WMLA Conference, and indulged in a breakfast at SFO of a slice of banana bread and one of those yogurt/granola/berry cups, heavy on the plastic packaging. $14.30!... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% -0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.45% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.90% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.07% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.18% +0.03 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.72% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.06% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/4 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.90% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.39% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.76% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/4 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% +0.12 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.14 0.56 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.12 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.70 -0.13 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.70 -0.13 UMBS 5.5 101.00 -0.09 GNMA 5.0 99.75 -0.09 GNMA 5.5 100.66 -0.14 Pricing as of: 5/4 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.3820 +0.0180 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.794 -0.070 5 YR Treasury 3.332 -0.014 7 YR Treasury 3.348 -0.002 10 YR Treasury 3.382 +0.018 30 YR Treasury 3.737 +0.044 Pricing as of: 5/4 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed focusing on short-term rates is more concerning than bank mismanagement... What the Fed is trying to do is difficult and may not be working, says Roge... First Horizon CEO on why the $13.4 billion deal with TD Bank collapsed Fed made right call on interest rate decision, says former Fed official Don... Around the Web Reuters U.S. officials assessing possible 'manipulation' on banking shares- source CNBC 66% of renters say homeownership is 'hopeless'here's how they'd rather spend their money Eye on Housing Unaffordable Prices Are Most Common Reason Buyers Cant Make Purchase Reuters PacWest, Western Alliance hit as US banking concerns widen CNBC Fed hikes rates by a quarter percentage point, as expected Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 242,000 Calculated Risk Blog FOMC Statement: Raise Rates 25 bp; Pause in June Likely Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit decreased to $64.2 Billion in March CNBC Watch live: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks after rate decision Calculated Risk Blog April Employment Preview CNBC 2-year Treasury yield falls as investors weigh Fed rate decision, economic outlook CNBC European Central Bank raises rates by 25 basis points, slowing the pace of hikes CNBC Small business confidence rises slightly, but inflation, economic concerns dim outlook

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