Mortgage Rates Continue to Recover, But We Could See Big Moves Tomorrow, Depending on Data

If you're just here to keep an eye on daily changes in mortgage rates, today was solid. There was a modest improvement versus yesterday and the average lender is almost perfectly in line with 6.5% when it comes to top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates. For those interested in more of the nuts and bolts, today's improvement came in response to a lower-than-expected reading in this morning's key economic report, the Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI measures inflation at the wholesale level and occasionally has a fairly decent impact on rate when the results are much higher or lower than forecast. Today's results were lower. Bonds/rates hate inflation. As such, rates improved after these results. But there is another inflation report that packs a much bigger punch than PPI and it will be out tomorrow morning. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation at the retail level. Along with the similar PCE inflation that will be out in 2 weeks, CPI represents the inflation metric that the Federal Reserve would like to see at 2%. To be clear, year over year core inflation has no chance of hitting 2% tomorrow, but monthly inflation readings would merely need to keep doing what they've been doing in order for the Fed to be convinced that 2% annual inflation is a near certainty. There's no way to know ahead of time whether the data will be friendly or damaging--only that CPI is responsible for some of the biggest spikes and drops over the past few years.

August 13, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Continue to Recover, But We Could See Big Moves Tomorrow, Depending on Data If you're just here to keep an eye on daily changes in mortgage rates, today was solid. There was a modest improvement versus yesterday and the average lender is almost perfectly in line with 6.5% when it comes to top tier conventional 30yr fix... (read more) MBS Commentary First Inflation Data of the Week Sets a Hopeful Tone Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter component, the producer price index was much higher than expected. While bonds were able to look past... (read more) Rob Chrisman LOS, Warehouse, Servicing, Borrower Service Tools; Webinars and Events; M&A Update; 1099 vs. W2 “I ordered a book titled, ‘How to scam people online’ two months ago. It still hasn't arrived yet.” Let’s open today’s Commentary with a couple topics that “bookend” lending. On the secondary marketing end, the current state of buybacks, Freddie Mac'... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.52% -0.03% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.52% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.09 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.07% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.70% -0.03 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.29% -0.11 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.10% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 8/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% -0.09% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.47% -0.26 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.63% -0.36 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/8 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.55% -0.27 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% -0.24 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.77% -0.30 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/7 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.66 +0.24 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.66 +0.24 UMBS 6.0 101.78 +0.23 GNMA 5.5 100.59 +0.19 GNMA 6.0 101.42 +0.16 Pricing as of: 8/13 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8475 -0.0570 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.938 -0.081 5 YR Treasury 3.678 -0.068 7 YR Treasury 3.732 -0.060 10 YR Treasury 3.848 -0.057 30 YR Treasury 4.159 -0.042 Pricing as of: 8/13 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed's Bostic: If economy evolves as I expect, should be rate cuts by year-e... Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected Blackstone President Jon Gray on the economy, Fed's rate path outlook and d... We are in a buyer's market for new housing construction, says Ivy Zelman Around the Web CNBC Wednesday's big CPI inflation report could mark a change in thinking for the Fed Marketwatch Feds Bostic downplays recession fears Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2024 Calculated Risk Blog Fannie "Real Estate Owned" inventory Decreased 10% in Q2 2024 CNBC Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected CNBC Three-year inflation outlook hits record low in New York Fed consumer survey CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors await inflation data Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July Eye on Housing Wood-Framed Home Share Decreased in 2023 Eye on Housing Building Material Price Growth Tracking Closely to 2023 CNBC U.S. crude oil trades near a three-week high after rally fueled by Israel-Iran tension Eye on Housing Most NAHB Builders are Small Businesses CNBC U.S. crude oil rises a fifth day, tops $77 per barrel, as Pentagon sends more forces to Middle East

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