What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions? When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-reported labor market visions hit the mainstream today.  Given the big role or the labor market in the rate world these days, that seems highly relevant at first glance.  But as was the case the last time the QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) was revised, there was plenty of sound and fury with very little significance for markets.  The revision will be out on Wednesday morning.  It isn't a new jobs number, and the market already expects a negative revision between 600k and 1m for the 12 months ending March 2024.  Why all the focus on this topic (which pertains to data that's almost 6 months old)?  Because it was a very boring, low-volume, uninspired day for bonds despite incidental gains. Econ Data / EventsLeading Indicators-0.6 vs -0.3 f'cast, -0.2 prev Market Movement Recap09:04 AM Roughly unchanged overnight but gaining ground early.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 3.837 01:05 PM Best levels of the day.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5.2bps at 3.82 03:34 PM sideways at best levels.  No change from the last update and minimal movement since then.
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August 20, 2024
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MBS Commentary
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions? When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-reported labor market visions hit the mainstream today.  Gi... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
File today under "nice."  While it wasn't amazing, significant, or even the byproduct of any interesting events, mortgage rates managed to drift modestly lower, ultimately matching their lowest levels since August 5th.   The lowest ra... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Sometimes things are confused with other things. (What do racoons think of Tesla trucks? Those trucks are easy to make fun of.) There isn’t a lot of confusion among the 700+ people attending the Western Secondary here near Los Angeles: stay in busine... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries