Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus on this week's absence of big ticket market movers.  Or perhaps this is simply the biggest possible reaction to one of the week's only potential market movers coming in MUCH higher than expected.  After all, the mantra has been that nothing that happens inside a range of 4.34 to 4.50 in 10yr Treasury yields is interesting.  While that remains true in the bigger picture, today's reaction to the S&P Global Services PMI data was about as interesting as an uninteresting thing can be, causing an immediate spike from 4.42+ to 4.49+.  While the size of the beat is certainly surprising (54.8 vs 51.3 f'cast), the market reaction to such an event is logical. Econ Data / EventsJobless Claims215k vs 220k f'cast, 223k prev Chi Fed Activity Index-0.23 vs +0.125 f'cast, 0.15 prev S&P Services Global PMI54.8 vs 51.3 f'cast, 51.3 prev New Home Sales634k vs 680k f'cast, 665k prev Market Movement Recap08:35 AM Mostly flat overnight and little-changed after data.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.8bps at 4.415 10:33 AM Sharply weaker after PMI data.  MBS down just over a quarter point.  10yr up 7.1bps at 4.496 02:35 PM continuing modest recovery after AM weakness with MBS down 7 ticks (.23) and 10yr up 0.5 bps at 4.474 03:28 PM Unchanged From the previous update at the 3pm CME close.
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May 23, 2024
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MBS Commentary
Surprisingly Strong Surge in Services PMI Tests The Range Perhaps fate was tempted by our persistent focus on this week's absence of big ticket market movers.  Or perhaps this is simply the biggest possi... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement in the interest rate world.  This morning's report on the services sector offered one of the o... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Some people say, “You’re crazy to stay in residential lending in this environment, and it’s not going to improve dramatically in the near future.” No, this is crazy. Owners of vendors and lenders who are barely eking by, or losing money quarter after... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries