While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates haven't been lower than the previous day for the average lender.  That's the bad news. The good news is that today's increase was modest.  In fact, if you take yesterday out of the equation the average lender's conventional 30yr fixed rates are easily at the the lowest levels since February 2023.  That's a drop of more than .75% in just over a month, which is a quick pace of improvement.  It's also part of the longest trend of rate improvement in more than 3 years. Many times, when it comes to movement in financial markets, "too much of a good thing" means you might see the opposite of that thing--at least to some extent.  That's certainly a possibility, but it depends on incoming economic data and the market's reaction to the Fed's rate outlook next week.   NOTE: we're not as interested in the Fed's rate cut because that part of the policy shift is already reflected in today's interest rates.  Rather, if the Fed communicates a more aggressive rate cut outlook in the upcoming months, rates could continue lower.  Conversely, if the rate cut outlook underwhelms, there's room for rates to bounce back up and hold steady until the next major round of economic data.
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September 12, 2024
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Mortgage Rate Watch
While it's true that there have only been 8 business days so far this month, it's also true that today is the only one of the 8 where mortgage rates haven't been lower than the previous day for the average lender.  That's the bad news. The good... (read more)
MBS Commentary
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement.  So far, it looks like fireworks are not on the menu.  Heavy lifting was left to only two report... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
“Honey, what did you do today?” “Well…” People do some cockamamie stuff against all odds. What are the odds of a lender or LO retaining their client after the loan has been brokered out or the servicing’s been sold? UWM released KEEP, “an industry-le... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries