Mortgage Rates Surprisingly Steady Despite Strong Jobs Report

Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a surprisingly resilient day relative to the market moving data. When NFP beats forecasts by 100k (today: 303k vs 200k f'cast), we tend to see big losses. It was no surprise to see losses, but possibly surprising to see bonds almost back to pre-NFP levels 2 hours later. Even after the 3pm sell-off, MBS are still in line with yesterday morning's levels. That's better than we'd expect, based on the data and one of the only conclusions is that the market is more anxious to see next week's CPI on Wednesday. Econ Data / EventsNonfarm Payrolls303k vs 200k f'cast, 270k prev Unemployment Rate3.8 vs 3.9 f'cast, 3.9 prev Earnings0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev (revised up 0.1) Market Movement Recap09:36 AM Pretty stable after initial losses. MBS down 7 ticks (.23) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.377. 10:55 AM Decent recovery, but it's not continuing for now. MBS down only 5 ticks (.16). 10yr up 5.5bps at 4.369 (briefly made it down to 4.337. 02:28 PM Fairly flat in the PM. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 6bps at 4.372. 03:17 PM Weakness at 3pm CME close. MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up almost 8bps at 4.391.

April 5, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a surprisingly resilient day relative to the market moving data. When NFP beats forecasts by 100k... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Surprisingly Steady Despite Strong Jobs Report Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future path of interest rate decisions. While rates ... (read more) Rob Chrisman CRM Product; STRATMOR CD Workshop; FHFA on Lock-In Effect; Training and Webinars I head to Central Texas today (A53 on Southwest; something about maybe seeing an eclipse); statewide Texas home ownership rate is about 64 percent. This is a shade lower than the 66 percent nationwide. (Home ownership & operational challenges fac... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.01% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.01% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.45% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.32% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.75% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.46% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/5 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/4 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.91% -0.02 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.11 0.56 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.06% -0.08 0.57 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/3 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.85 -0.40 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.85 -0.40 UMBS 6.0 100.52 -0.27 GNMA 5.5 99.55 -0.32 GNMA 6.0 100.86 -0.13 Pricing as of: 4/5 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4026 +0.0897 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.753 +0.103 5 YR Treasury 4.394 +0.096 7 YR Treasury 4.404 +0.094 10 YR Treasury 4.403 +0.090 30 YR Treasury 4.555 +0.081 Pricing as of: 4/5 5:31PM EST Latest Video Goldman Sachs' Hatzius: Next week's CPI report will be more important than ... Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: March jobs report shows 'the economy is... Friday's strong jobs numbers will limit the Fed to two interest rate cuts, ... Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: Too soon to think about cutting interest ... Around the Web CNBC Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high CNBC Job growth totaled 303,000 in March, better than expected, and unemployment was 3.8% Marketwatch Fed's Logan says 'much too soon to think about cutting rates' Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: 2% to 2.5% CNBC Here's where the jobs are for March 2024 in one chart in one chart Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in March; Down 14.7% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 25.0% YoY; New Listings Down 7.8% YoY Market Watch Treasury yields edge higher ahead of jobs report CNBC Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday's report Marketwatch Barkin says Fed would be 'smart' to take its time to cut rates due to persistent inflation Marketwatch March jobs report forecast: 200,000 new jobs and 3.8% unemployment Marketwatch Fed's Goolsbee says hot inflation readings 'should not knock us off path' back to 2% target Fannie Mae Payroll Growth Continues to Beat Expectations, While Manufacturing Activity Ends 18-Month Slump

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