Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day.  Specifically, traders expected multiple executive orders with several focusing on proposed tariffs.  While history suggests the conventional wisdom may be faulty, the general belief is that tariffs increase inflation. Considering inflation correlates with higher rates, there was some relief in rates when the executive orders concerning tariffs turned out to be less aggressive than expected.  In not so many words, the president ordered various agencies to asses trade agreements/deficits and recommend measures to address them, such as tariffs. Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today.  The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier 30yr fixed rate remaining unchanged from last Friday.
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January 21, 2025
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Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day.  Specifically, traders expected multiple executive orders with several focusing on proposed tariffs.  While h... (read more)
MBS Commentary
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs.  This was one of the key areas of focus for financial markets.  While there are few different ways it could be traded, ... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
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Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries