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Good morning Voornaam,

Hot on the heels of Clicks earlier in the week, we have an update from another local retailer that is trading at a lofty valuation. Mr Price closed over 3% lower yesterday despite releasing an extremely strong update that seems to tick just about all the boxes. I was horribly wrong on Mr Price last year, with the share price momentum going beyond all my expectations. The markets are hard to predict, but this is a share price chart that I wouldn't want to own right now - much like Clicks!

On the financial services side, we saw a strong uptick in AUM at Coronation thanks to market performance. At Quilter, they've built a business that goes and sources assets rather than just waiting for them to arrive. The results are clear, with really strong momentum in inflows in the final quarter of the year at Quilter.

At Vukile, the recently announced acquisition in Spain that was impacted by the floods may still go ahead. There's a good news story for the day about rebuilding after a disaster!

To get these insights and more in the Nibbles, read Ghost Bites>>>

If you are a qualifying Black-Owned business looking for equity funding, don't sleep on the opportunity being offered by MIC Khulisani Ventures. After we released a podcast with full details at the end of 2024, the team has summarised the opportunity in a new article that includes a link to the podcast for those who missed it. You only have until the end of January to apply, so don't delay!

There's a brand new Magic Markets episode that will give you helpful insights into the banking sector and how banks make money. We also talked about many of the tough decisions they need to make around capital allocation and balance sheet management. With our usual approach of combining a macro lens with bottom-up analysis, we explain why you can bank on banking - albeit with a preference for the US rather than the local market. Enjoy the podcast and transcript here>>>

Have a great day!

SATRIX: Low-risk high-reward - the low-volatility anomaly

Does taking higher risk always lead to higher returns? Or is there something to be said for seeking out lower volatility equity exposure, especially if it can generate similar overall returns? Nico Katzke of Satrix digs into the numbers to bring you this insightful piece on portfolio and risk strategy. Enjoy it here>>>

Ghost Wrap - five insights from December

Ghost Wrap: There were some great stories in December that are well worth keeping in mind in January. Italtile's share price needs a careful watch. Prosus is making major acquisitions again. Renergen is still dealing with teething issues - and a legal dispute as well. Metair is getting very little out of its Turkish business. Finally, will Bell Equipment shareholders kick themselves? I cover these topics in Ghost Wrap, brought to you by Forvis Mazars and available here>>>

MIC KHULISANI VENTURES - A game-changer for Black-Owned businesses in South Africa

MIC Khulisani Ventures is looking for Black-Owned business with high scalability and a commitment to growth. Equity funding is available and applications close at the end of January 2025. Get the details here>>>

GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market

Mr Price released excellent numbers, but the market expected even more. Coronation and especially Quilter benefitted from a strong year in the markets. Vukile's Spanish property acquisition may still be happening. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>>

DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - The wisdom of the meatball

The best salesperson in Swedish business IKEA’s history isn’t Sven or Astrid or even Nils - it’s the meatball! Since 1985, flatpack-furniture giant IKEA has sold more than a billion of its trademark Swedish meatballs every year. But how did a furniture company come to rely on meatballs to sell couches? The answer lies in consumer psychology. Dominique Olivier explains>>>

Unlock the Stock - KAL Group

Unlock the Stock: KAL Group joined the platform for the first time to talk about the performance and strategic focus areas in the broader agriculture industry. Enjoy the presentation and Q&A here>>>

MAGAnomics: Trump and the global economy

What impact will Trump’s presidency have on the global economy and emerging markets? Tune in to the latest episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast for insights from Investec experts, Annabel Bishop (SA) and Ellie Henderson (UK).

International Business Snippet:

Things are good in US aviation at the moment, with United Airlines posting first quarter earnings that were ahead of estimates. If you can believe it, the share price is up 166% in the past 12 months - talk about taking off!

Procter & Gamble also beat estimates, although its share price performance is far more tame, with an increase of 7% in the past year. Encouragingly, the rate of decline in organic sales in China has come down sharply. If the China narrative swings from "less pain" to "some growth" for FMCG companies, it will be a game changer.

Speaking of games, things aren't going quite as well for Electronic Arts. The company has decreased its full-year bookings guidance based on underperformance in its football franchise. Since 2022, the game I have such fond memories of (FIFA) has been rebranded to EA Sports FC after they lost the rights to use the FIFA name. If ever you wondered whether licensing deals are important, here's the proof.

Our research in Magic Markets Premium this week is on JPMorgan, the banking GOAT that is a core part of my portfolio. If you're ready to give your US market knowledge a proper boost, then subscribe today with no minimum monthly commitment. It's worth it.

Magic Markets: The year ahead - buckle up!

Magic Markets: In this episode, we start off with some of the key macroeconomic indicators that investors and traders use to assess the health of the retail industry. We then go into the process of a typical turnaround, along with the milestones that are usually seen. Get the podcast and transcript here>>>

Macroeconomic indicators

Trump’s pledge to boost AI spend has again helped the US tech sector lead US markets higher overnight. The dollar has rebounded marginally from oversold levels this morning as Treasury Yields etch higher as well.

China has announced that it will look to support local equity markets, which has resulted in strong gains for the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index.

The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open flat to marginally higher this morning.

The rand remains firm against the majors.

Gold has paused around near-term highs as the dollar firms slightly.

Oil prices continue to weaken on the suggestion of increased production of the commodity under the Trump administration.

Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.50/$ | US 10yr 4.60% | Gold $2,753/oz | Platinum $948/oz | Brent Crude $78.11

As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading.