Cash is in the wrong place

Good Morning Voornaam,

I'm changing things up this week. Ghost Wrap will be split into two shorter podcasts each week, which means the insights are fresher when they get to you. For now, make sure you enjoy the final 8-minute version of this great show that gives you a whirlwind update on local company news. Brought to you by Mazars, you can get the latest on Woolworths, Shoprite, Liberty Two Degrees, Spur, AVI, British American Tobacco, Anglo American and ArcelorMittal. Find it here>>>

When you tell someone about ETFs, they immediately think about equities. Inevitably, they think about the funds tracking the largest indices, like the Satrix Top 40 ETF. The more unusual equity ETFs are at least on most investor radars. The same can't be said for bond ETFs, which are largely ignored. With yields where they currently are, does that mean that investors are missing out on building their own balanced portfolios? In the latest Ghost Stories podcast, Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix joined me to put the spotlight on bond ETF investments. There's a lot to learn here about fixed income investing and how it can complement an equity strategy. Find it here>>>

Looking at single stocks, the latest Magic Markets episode is a discussion on some of the recent trades that Mohammed Nalla and I have made in our portfolios. We specifically looked at global stocks where we benefit from our important research in Magic Markets Premium. Listen to the show here>>>

MTN's ongoing forex battles

Doing business in the rest of Africa is no joke. Availability of foreign currency is a major problem, particularly in consumer-facing (B2C) businesses that must earn revenue in local currency. In some (but not all) B2B industries, revenue is earned in dollars and the forex problems aren't a thing. MTN is firmly in the former category.

Consolidated debt ratios are only helpful if you assume that cash can easily be moved a round in the group. When cash gets trapped in certain pockets, then you need to look at the debt at specific levels in the group. This is why the "group holding company leverage" gets a lot of attention at MTN (now at the upper end of the guided range because of cash upstreaming problems) even though consolidated net debt to EBITDA looks fine.

A much simpler analogy is to think of your own savings accounts. Imagine if your emergency fund and savings account aren't allowed to be used to pay your bond. For whatever reason, you just can't get that money when you want it. Suddenly, your bond is a lot scarier, isn't it? Welcome to MTN's life.

Joining MTN on SENS yesterday was sector peer Telkom, bringing out an update that shows just how tricky the underlying portfolio of businesses actually is. Most of them are dealing with some kind of issue, usually related to legacy revenue falling off a cliff and causing cha llenges for profitability. Revenue was up 3.8% and group EBITDA fell by 4.2%.

It was an exceptionally busy day of news that also saw British American Tobacco announcing a debt reduction, EOH putting out stable numbers, Gemfields reporting a strong half, Glencore investing further into copper, Liberty Two Degrees releasing results with encouraging metrics, various mining quarterly reports (MC Mining / Orion Minerals / Southern Palladium), a change of CFO at Mr Price, results from RMB Holdings and some additional cash flowing into Stefanutti Stocks.

I spent hours working through SENS yesterday so that you don't have to. Get everything you need in Ghost Bites here>>>

Will this be a good week for the dollar?

This is another week of central bank action. TreasuryONE notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of England (BOE) are both in the spotlight, with economists expecting a 25 basis points hike from the RBA and 50 basis points from the BOE. These outcomes may contribute to broader dollar appreciation, particularly after last week's activity by the Fed and ECB.

There's also pressure on the rand from June's trade deficit of R3.5 billion, a massive swing from the record R10.2 billion surplus in May. This fell way short of market expectations of a surplus of R11.85 billion. Although imports fell by 1.6% vs. the previous month, exports declined by 8.6%. When combined with other issues like a steepening yield curve globally, the rand is staring down the barrel of a potentially tough August. It is currently trading just below R18.00.

Have a productive Tuesday!

Ghost Bites (British American Tobacco | EOH | Gemfields | Glencore | Liberty Two Degrees | MC Mining | Mr Price | MTN | Orion Minerals | RMB Holdings | Southern Palladium | Stefanutti Stocks | Telkom)

On an exceptionally busy day of updates, we saw just about everything from junior mining right through to telecoms, with technology and property added in for good measure.

Red flags are tricky to spot. So are green flags, or reasons to invest in a company and believe in the long-term future. Here are two examples of green flags, using global case studies.

Ghost Global: Hunting for Green Flags
 

Equity ETFs dominate the narrative among investors, particularly retail investors. Fixed income or bond ETFs are often ignored, which is a pity now that yields have picked up. With Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix, we put the spotlight on bond ETFs.

 

Ghost Wrap is your weekly update of the most interesting stories on the JSE, brought to you by Mazars. I cover eight companies in as many minutes!

 

We used Episode 135 as an opportunity to talk through some of the trades we've each made in our portfolios recently. We focused on global stocks in this show, with reference to Magic Markets Premium research where applicable.

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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