Multi-Unit Construction Staying Steady (For Now) While Single-Fam Slides

There aren't many ways to make the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction report exciting, and there are zero ways to frame it in a positive light (unless you want the old "it can only go down for so long before it comes back up"). So let's just get through this and try to pluck out one or two interesting tidbits. First off, if we're just looking at the two main headlines in the data (housing starts and building permits) in the context of the past 10 years, things actually could be quite a bit worse. Sure, there's been a massive contraction from the peak, but the peak was driven by ravenous, temporary demand. It's no mystery that housing-related metrics have suffered in an environment dominated by the fastest rate spike in 40 years to the highest levels in 20 years. But not every housing metric is suffering. Take "units under construction" for instance. It just hit a new record. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Based on the previous spikes (1978, 1986, 2006), it's arguably not great, but the big difference between now and then is that we only have a big spike in units under construction because housing completions haven't been keeping pace with housing starts and building permits. The build up of "under construction" units is increasingly a factor of the multifamily sector, which hasn't experienced the same drop as single family construction in terms of permitting. The NAHB has a telling chart in their coverage of single vs multi fam construction. It shows the build up of multi fam units under construction and the decline of single fam.

November 17, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Multi-Unit Construction Staying Steady (For Now) While Single-Fam Slides There aren't many ways to make the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction report exciting, and there are zero ways to frame it in a positive light (unless you want the old "it can only go down for so long before it comes back up"). So let... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Still Much Lower Than Most of Last Week If you'd like to get the quick scoop and be on your way, here you go: the big move in rates happened last Thursday when the average 30yr fixed dropped by a record amount in a single day (records go back to 2009) to the mid 6% range. It hasn't m... (read more) MBS Commentary Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back Bonds lost a bit of ground overnight and then lost some more right at the start of domestic trading. The selling was inspired by comments... (read more) Rob Chrisman Co-Issue, Cyber Security, Market Research, Broker Products; Jumbo and Non-Agency News The release yesterday of FHFA’s report on Agency Guarantee Fees prompted some of the discussion here in Kansas City among mortgage folks about how challenging things have become, especially with rates and pricing. Sure, there are opportunities, but t... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.65% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.65% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.10% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.30% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.11% +0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.22% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.35% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/17 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.10% +0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.61% -0.47 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.40 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/17 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.90% -0.24 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 6.27% -0.13 0.73 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.51% +0.01 0.64 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 11/16 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.92 -0.28 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.92 -0.28 UMBS 5.5 100.64 -0.22 GNMA 5.0 99.39 -0.25 GNMA 5.5 100.78 +0.03 Pricing as of: 11/17 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.7713 +0.0813 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.456 +0.091 5 YR Treasury 3.941 +0.087 7 YR Treasury 3.870 +0.083 10 YR Treasury 3.771 +0.081 30 YR Treasury 3.880 +0.035 Pricing as of: 11/17 5:31PM EST Latest Video Bullard should probably be doing his private equity firm interviews at this... Rising rates pushing out potential homeowners The 9am Bond Report - November 17, 2022 The 2pm Bond Report - November 17, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Rent growth slows to the lowest level in 18 months Calculated Risk Blog October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction CNBC Here's why Home Depot and Lowe's are booming in a housing market bust CNBC Fed's Bullard says rate hikes have had 'only limited effects' on inflation so far Calculated Risk Blog Housing Starts Decreased to 1.425 million Annual Rate in October Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000 Eye on Housing Flat Readings for Single-Family Built-for-Rent CNBC Fed's Waller says he's open to a half-point rate hike at December meeting Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 45% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 18% CNBC UK finance minister announces tax hikes and spending cuts, says country is in recession CNBC Treasury bonds hold steady as investors await key housing data CNBC Fed's Daly sees rates rising at least another percentage point as 'pausing is off the table' Calculated Risk Blog AIA: Architecture Billings Index "decreases considerably" in October

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