Hasbro’s bleak outlook scared investors | Nestlé posted some second-rate results |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 17th in 3:08 minutes.

🗞 They say that no news is good news – but when it comes to investing, you always want to know the 411. So join Adrian Alberts for The Relationship Between News And The Markets on Tuesday, and find out how headlines can help – and hinder – your portfolio.
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Today's big stories

  1. Toymaking giant Hasbro gave a disappointing profit forecast for the year, and investors went searching for a new playmate
  2. Stocks could be learning to take rate hikes in their stride – Read Now
  3. Food and drink titan Nestlé posted paltry results that satisfied nobody’s appetite

Not Child’s Play

Not Child’s Play

What’s Going On Here?

Toymaker Hasbro gave a disappointing outlook on Thursday, and investors decided the firm’s a problem child.

What Does This Mean?

Hasbro’s preliminary results update last month showed that demand for its toys dropped off a cliff last quarter – so the firm decided to run a tighter ship and lay off 15% of its workforce. But if anyone was actually reassured by that move, this week’s outlook set them straight: the owner of My Little Pony and Monopoly released an annual forecast that was way below analysts’ expectations. And it’s not hard to see why: after all, retailers will probably continue to play it safe with orders after overstocking last year. And lately Hasbro's lost some important licenses – like the Disney Princess range poached by rival Mattel – which could dent profit big-time. Obviously that wasn’t the bedtime story investors wanted, and they sent Hasbro's shares tumbling.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Life in plastic.
Kids are really annoying when they cry, which means that demand for toys typically withstands the most Herculean economic hardships. But not this earnings season. Mattel gave a weak outlook of its own earlier this month, and now it’s ransacking its iconic back catalog to try and woo consumers with old favorites. The firm announced earlier this week that Barney – the famous TV dinosaur – will be back on the airwaves and store shelves before long. And that's not to mention this year's hotly anticipated Barbie movie.

The bigger picture: Workers beware.
Another day, another layoff announcement – and Hasbro's bout of job-slashing shows that's not just confined to tech. In fact, S&P 500 companies' profits fell for the first time since 2020 this earnings season, a sign there could be more cuts to come. That's the way the wind seems to be blowing anyway: a recent business survey showed that more respondents expect payrolls to fall than rise over the coming months – the first time that's been the case for two years.

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Analyst Take

Interest Rates Could Push Even Higher, But Stocks May Weather It Just Fine

Interest Rates Could Push Even Higher, But Stocks May Weather It Just Fine
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Reda Farran, Analyst

January’s blockbuster US jobs report strengthened the argument for more interest rate hikes, with some Federal Reserve officials warning that rates will have to climb even higher than predicted.

And traders have started placing big bets on rates going to 6% by September – more than a full percentage point higher than today’s levels. 

But despite all that, US stocks have stayed virtually flat.

So that’s today’s Insight: why the next hikes probably won’t shove stocks around quite like the first ones did.

Read or listen to the Insight here

Artificial intelligence (AI) could change the way we live, think, and invest

That’s an awe-inspiring prospect – but with so many applications, deciding how and where to invest in the tech’s future is a daunting task.

So let us do the drudge work for you: our analysts have checked out different ways to buy into the theme, and investigated AI-powered tools that could revolutionize your investing toolkit.

 

So there you have it: your jargon-free tour of AI opportunities.

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Wake Up And Smell The Coffee

Wake Up And Smell The Coffee

What’s Going On Here?

Nestlé reported results on Thursday, showing that trouble’s been brewing for the firm.

What Does This Mean?

Nestlé tried to shore up profit with its boldest price hikes in years last quarter – but with cost-conscious buyers ditching name-brand products for cheaper alternatives, that didn’t have its Nescafé coffee and Maggi noodles selling like hotcakes. In fact, the world’s biggest food group saw the volume of goods it sold drop for the second-straight quarter. And looking at the whole year, things weren’t much better either: the volume of goods sold grew just 0.1% while organic sales grew 8.3% – meaning it was the firm’s 8.2% price hikes that did most of the money-making legwork. But even those higher prices weren’t enough to offset Nestlé’s increased ingredient and shipping costs, which cut profit margins to their skinniest levels in four years and left annual profit well below expectations.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Slipping staples.
Nestlé isn't the only consumer staples giant experiencing the crunch of lower sales volumes – PepsiCo, Unilever, and more are all in the same boat. But Nestlé's especially sour second half of 2022, with its first drop in volumes since 1999, drives home that even the strength of trusty old consumer staples is being pushed to the limit right now. If that trend continues, companies that raise prices even higher – as Nestlé plans to – might just push shoppers away and really torpedo their sales volumes.

The bigger picture: Waitrose Wait-lowered.
Nestlé’s results serve as a troubling reminder that price hikes aren't going to disappear just because the West seems to have passed peak inflation. But there was one ray of hope this week: British supermarket chain Waitrose announced that it’s slashing the price of its own-brand products by a record amount, in a brazen attempt to fend off discount rivals like Aldi and Lidl.

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💬 Quote of the day

“I like to play chess with old men in the park. But it’s so hard to find 32 of them.”

– Emo Philips (an American actor and comedian)
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🥳 Coming Up In The Next Week…

All events in UK time.

🏠 How To Start Investing In UK Real Estate: 6pm, February 20th
🗞 The Relationship Between News And The Markets: 5pm, February 21st
✍️ What Are Investment DAOs And How Do They Work?: 6pm, February 22nd

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💸 How To Pick Winning Exchange Traded Funds: 5pm, March 7th
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🌎 Three Ways Long-Term Investors Can Act On Climate Change: 12pm, March 21st
🚀 What Will Be The Next Big Thing In Artificial Intelligence?: 1pm, March 22nd

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