New Home Construction Growth Swings From 14 Year Low to 13 Month High

Although the New Residential Construction report released by the Census Bureau has notoriously wide margins of error, it's rare to see numbers like today's rendered irrelevant by a revision. In fact, even in the case of the most extreme negative revision, Housing Starts (the ground-breaking phase of new construction) would still be up roughly 7% from April. As reported, starts surged a whopping 21.7% to an annual pace of 1,631,000. Multifamily starts jumped even more: 28.1% from last month and 39.6% vs a year ago. Multifamily continues eating into the market share of single family construction, growing 2.4% faster from last month and 33.7% faster over the past 12 months. In terms of outright levels, multi-fam starts are the highest since the 1980s. That said, single family construction still has a bigger piece of the pie. One striking feature of this month's numbers is the sharp reversal from a trend negative growth to positive. In fact, the year-over-year change in housing starts was at a 14 year low last month. Today's data leaves May at a 13 month high (also the first positive reading during that time). Granted, part of the reason such things are possible is the fact that last year saw a sharp decline from April to May (i.e. today's data is now compared against a much shorter yard stick), but even then, the outright level of starts is the 10th highest in over a decade.

June 20, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News New Home Construction Growth Swings From 14 Year Low to 13 Month High Although the New Residential Construction report released by the Census Bureau has notoriously wide margins of error, it's rare to see numbers like today's rendered irrelevant by a revision. In fact, even in the case of the most extreme negativ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Nicely Lower to Start The Week Mortgage rates are primarily driven by changes in the value of certain bonds that trade on the open market. Those bonds (mortgage-backed securities or "MBS") tend to move much like longer-term US Treasuries. No other component of mortgage... (read more) MBS Commentary Yields Challenging Last Week's Floor Despite Headwinds Bonds started the holiday-shortened week at moderately higher yields, but rallied several bps during European hours. 8:30am econ data pushed back, erasing a 4bp gain, but the weakness didn't last long. MBS and Treasuries are both at the b... (read more) Rob Chrisman Underwriting, LOS, Appraisal Tools, Broker and Automation Products; Freddie and Fannie News; Housing Starts Skyrocket I am fortunate to travel around some (no, I am not on the missing Titanic tourist submarine, nor personally shepherding the new Credit Trigger Bill in MA), and am in the Bay Area to give a speech on the eve of the Summer Solstice, and am reminded of ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.87% -0.08% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.55% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.67% -0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.89% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.54% -0.08 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/20 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.25% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.10% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.14 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% 0.00 1.05 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.79% +0.05 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.55 +0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.55 +0.02 UMBS 5.5 100.06 -0.02 GNMA 5.0 98.77 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 100.02 -0.06 Pricing as of: 6/20 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.7170 -0.0500 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.683 -0.037 5 YR Treasury 3.941 -0.045 7 YR Treasury 3.832 -0.047 10 YR Treasury 3.717 -0.050 30 YR Treasury 3.811 -0.042 Pricing as of: 6/20 5:31PM EST Latest Video Housing prices could dip before trending higher, says Black Knight's Andy W... Housing starts surge in May Housing starts surge by 22% in May, blowing past expectations Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha on what to expect from July's Fed meeting Around the Web Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Post Solid Gain in May CNBC Treasury yields mixed as investors await Fed speaker comments Black Knight Andy Walden on CNBCs The Exchange: Home Prices May Dip Before Trending Higher Calculated Risk Blog Update: Lumber Prices Down About 25% YoY Calculated Risk Blog MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.49% in May" Eye on Housing Double Digit Declines for Single-Family Permits in April 2023 in All Regions CNBC It's official: Student loan payments will restart in October, Education Department says Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed's Barkin: What's Next For Fed Policy Reuters Fed's Waller: Not clear bank failures had a material effect on credit tightening Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 1.5% CNBC CNBC Daily Open: Dont fight the Fed? Whats that? CNBC 2-year Treasury yield climbs as investors assess interest rate outlook Reuters Euro zone yields rise after ECB as market bets on policy rates above 3.9%

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