It all started in a 1937 Ford... In 1945, at age 29, Leonard "Sam" Shoen was medically discharged from the U.S. Navy for rheumatic fever. And he wanted to move all his family's stuff from Los Angeles to Portland, Oregon.
Next Time Americans Move, Look to 1945
By Pete Carmasino, chief market strategist, Chaikin Analytics
It all started in a 1937 Ford... In 1945, at age 29, Leonard "Sam" Shoen was medically discharged from the U.S. Navy for rheumatic fever. And he wanted to move all his family's stuff from Los Angeles to Portland, Oregon. Sam and his wife, Anna Mary, tried to rent a utility trailer. At the time, people could do that from various lots around the Los Angeles area. It typically cost a couple bucks per day. But unlike those folks, Sam and Anna Mary were about to embark on a long-distance move. They needed to go roughly 950 miles up the West Coast. And they only wanted to drive the trailer one way. They didn't want to go back to Los Angeles. Unfortunately, in 1945, that type of service didn't exist. So the Shoens had no choice. They couldn't take everything with them. They had to cram themselves, their young son, and whatever possessions they could into their 1937 Ford. On the long drive, one idea dominated Sam and Anna Mary's conversation...
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They should create a business so others didn't need to deal with the same problem. Within two weeks of leaving Los Angeles, Sam and Anna Mary launched their new trailer-rental company in a northern suburb of Portland. They used about $5,000 in savings. Sam and Anna Mary even had the branding figured out. They painted the trailers bright orange and advertised the rental rate on the trailer's side. Back then, it was just $2 per day. And their idea worked... incredibly well. After all, Americans were on the move in the mid-1940s. Men and women returned from World War II in search of a fresh start. And Baby Boomers caused the population to surge. Countless folks just like Sam and Anna Mary needed a way to move all their stuff around. As a result, the U-Haul Trailer Rental System quickly grew in the region. At the end of 1945, the Shoens had 30 trailers available for rent at service stations in Oregon and Washington. The business only got bigger from there... By the end of the decade, folks could rent U-Haul trailers for one-way moves in most U.S. cities. And by the mid-1950s, the company's reach spread across most of Canada as well. Just like that, Sam and Anna Mary had empowered all sorts of "do it yourself" movers... Millions of folks have gotten from point A to point B using U-Haul trailers over the past 80 years. And they can all thank Sam and Anna Mary for not needing to leave anything behind. Today, the business that Sam and Anna Mary founded still has the U-Haul (UHAL) name. The do-it-yourself moving company boasts more than 24,000 locations, about 194,000 trucks, and more than 138,000 trailers. Unfortunately, the company's stock has struggled in recent years... Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, UHAL shares saw a big run higher in 2020 and 2021. As mortgage rates plummeted, millions of Americans bought new homes and had to move all their stuff. But since then, U-Haul's stock has largely traded sideways. Take a look...
And the Power Gauge is cautious on U-Haul right now. As you can see in the below screenshot, the company currently earns a "neutral" rating from our system...
Put simply, the pandemic migration has ended. And high mortgage rates have locked millions of Americans into their existing homes. That makes this an incredibly challenging environment for U-Haul. But history tells us that won't always be the case. Next time Americans are on the move, they'll pack their belongings into trucks or trailers... like Sam and Anna Mary did in 1945. Until then, I recommend you keep an eye on U-Haul. It's an easy way to spot what America at large is up to. Good investing, Pete Carmasino P.S. Looking ahead, you won't want to miss my colleague Marc Chaikin's latest presentation... In short, Marc says the current environment means that making stock gains isn't as simple as just "buying the market." Instead, Marc believes we're in a stock-pickers market once again. As such, he's pounding the table on a particular strategy that has already seen big success... Get the full story here.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.03%
9
16
5
S&P 500
+0.29%
95
280
123
Nasdaq
+0.23%
33
51
16
Small Caps
+0.55%
442
1027
434
Bonds
-1.18%
Energy
+1.37%
6
10
6
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks have become somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+2.47%
Materials
+1.94%
Communication
+1.4%
Financial
+1.22%
Discretionary
+1.16%
Utilities
+0.57%
Staples
+0.36%
Energy
+0.07%
Industrials
+0.01%
Real Estate
-0.12%
Health Care
-1.03%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Services
10
28
15
Over the past 6 months, the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production subsector (XOP) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -10.75%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #14 of 21 subsectors.
Indicative Stocks
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
CNX
CNX Resources Corpor
CRC
California Resources
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
SMCI
+16.47%
INTC
+16.06%
WBA
+14.02%
MRNA
+8.37%
MU
+7.31%
Losers
MDT
-7.26%
ALLE
-5.62%
CAG
-5.46%
CMG
-4.54%
MGM
-4.37%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
EQT EQT Corporation
Q4
$0.69
Beat by $0.16
VMC Vulcan Materials Company
Q4
$2.17
Beat by $0.42
RBA RB Global, Inc.
Q4
$0.95
Beat by $0.16
IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc.
Q4
$0.97
Beat by $0.15
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Q4
$1.68
Beat by $0.25
* * * *
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