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| Thursday, January 23, 2025 |
| Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Two-and-a-half months after firing Robert Saleh, the Jets have finally found his replacement. The team announced that Aaron Glenn will be taking over as the new head coach, which means that there are now only four jobs left to be filled around the NFL (Jaguars, Cowboys, Saints, Raiders). |
| The Jaguars just fired their general manager, the Cowboys don't have a general manager because Jerry Jones decides everything, the Saints are $70 million over the salary cap and the Raiders are the Raiders. I think what I'm saying here is that each of these jobs definitely comes with a downside. |
| In non-coaching news, there are some football games being played this weekend. We'll be breaking down who has the biggest positional advantage in both the NFC and AFC title games, plus, we'll also be taking a look at whether the refs are actually favoring the Chiefs in the playoffs. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the grocery store. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Jets tab Aaron Glenn as head coach: Five things to know about the hiring |
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| The Detroit Lions have officially lost both of their coordinators. Less than 48 hours after offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was hired by the Bears, the Jets announced their decision to hire defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn on a five-year deal. |
| Here's everything you need to know about the hiring: |
| Glenn is returning to New York. Glenn is very familiar with the Jets, which is one of the big reasons why he wanted the job. Glenn started in the NFL as a player in 1994 when the Jets made him the 12th overall pick in the NFL Draft. He spent eight of his 15 seasons with the Jets. After his career ended as a player, the Jets brought him back to New York to be a personnel scout in 2012, which was his first NFL job after his playing days were over. The bar is low for Glenn. Not only do the Jets have the longest active playoff drought in the NFL -- they haven't been to the postseason since 2010 -- but it's been a place where almost no one has been able to succeed over the past two decades. Including interim coaches, the Jets have had eight head coaches since 2000 and only ONE of them finished their time in New York with a winning record and that was Al Groh, who went 9-7 during his one season with the team in 2000. If Glenn can end the playoff drought, Jets fans might build a statue for him. Glenn could be adding several former head coaches to his staff. When you're a first-time head coach, it's always smart to add a few guys to your coaching staff who have head-coaching experience, and it looks like Glenn is likely going to do that. According to Fox Sports, Glenn is eyeing Steve Wilks as a possible defensive coordinator, plus he might add former Chiefs coach Todd Haley and former Bears interim coach Thomas Brown. Glenn is a first-time NFL head coach. The 52-year-old Glenn spent 15 seasons in the NFL, but he didn't coach in the league until 2014 when the Browns hired him as their assistant defensive backs coach. From there, it was a quick rise for Glenn: After two seasons in Cleveland (2014-15), he was hired as the defensive backs coach in New Orleans for four seasons (2016-20) before leaving to take the Lions defensive coordinator job in 2021. Lions will get draft picks for losing Glenn. Since 2021, the NFL has had a rule in place that gives draft compensation to any team that has a minority member of their organization hired away by another team to be either a head coach or a general manager. With the Lions losing Glenn, that means Detroit will get getting one third-round compensatory pick in each of the next two drafts. |
| For our full story on Glenn's hiring, be sure to click here. |
| The Jets still have to make some big decisions this offseason: First, they have to hire a general manager to pair with Glenn and then they have to decide what they want to do at the quarterback position. We took a look at what the Jets need to do to turn things around and you can check that out here. |
| If you want to stay up to date on the five remaining coaching searches going on around the league, including the latest interviews and the hottest candidates, be sure to check out our coaching tracker here. |
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| 2. AFC and NFC title games: Breaking down who has the edge at each position |
| If you're wondering who has the edge in the two games being played this weekend, don't worry, we have you covered. Jared Dubin went through EVERY position group in both games to figure out who has the edge going into Sunday. |
| Let's take a look at two of his positional edges from each game. |
| AFC Championship |
Quarterback Edge: Chiefs
Dubin's take: "Josh Allen had a better 2024 regular season than did Patrick Mahomes. He averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions, took fewer sacks, created more explosive plays and added more expected points per dropback, via Tru Media. And yet ... there is no possible way that one can say any other QB in this league is better than Patrick Mahomes. Not given what we know about Mahomes, what he's capable of, what he does on a weekly basis in the playoffs and even what he's done against this specific Bills team." |
Running Back Edge: Bills
Dubin's take: "James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis have become one of the best backfield groups in the NFL. If Isiah Pacheco were still playing at the peak of his powers like he was over the last two seasons, we might be able to have a bit more of a debate here. But what the Chiefs are getting out of their Pacheco/Kareem Hunt backfield at the moment pales in comparison to what Buffalo's trio brings to the table." |
| If you want to see who has the edge at every position group in the AFC title game, be sure to check out Dubin's full story here. |
| NFC Championship |
Quarterback Edge: Commanders
Dubin's take: "The way they're playing right now, it is hard not to give the advantage to Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts, despite the fact that the former is a rookie and the latter was once an MVP candidate who led his team to a conference championship. Daniels is playing at as high a level as any rookie quarterback ever has, and he is essentially the foundation of Washington's entire offense." |
Offensive Line Edge: Eagles
Dubin's take: "If the Eagles don't have the NFL's best offensive line, it's only because Detroit's is slightly better. Washington's unit has been better than expected this season but still relies a lot on Daniels to make it look good. This one, frankly, isn't that close." |
| For a look at who has the edge at each position group in the NFC, you can check out our full list here. |
| 3. Chiefs are on an absurd penalty streak that might explain why fans think they get all the calls |
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| If you've spent any time on social media over the past week, you may have noticed that there's only one thing that everyone agrees on, and that's the fact that the Chiefs get all the calls. Basically, there seems to be a perception that NFL officiating crews favor the Chiefs. That might not be the case, but it's easy to understand why fans would feel that way and that's because Kansas City is in the middle of an absurd streak. |
| Let's take a look at it: |
| Chiefs have had a huge penalty advantage over their opponents. The Chiefs have been called for FEWER penalties than their opponent in 11 straight playoff games, which is the longest streak in the NFL over the past 33 years and the third longest in NFL history. If they get called for fewer penalties than the Bills on Sunday, that will bump their streak up to 12, which will tie the Broncos (1984-91) for the second-longest streak in NFL history. How does this compare to regular season. This streak started in the 2021 postseason. In that time, they've been called for more penalties than their opponent 0% of the time in the playoffs. However, in the 68 regular-season games over that span, they've been called for more penalties than their opponent 25 times, which is 37% of the time. The bottom line is that there are a lot more fans watching in the playoffs and now that the Chiefs have been called for fewest penalties than their opponent in 11 straight playoff games, it's easy to see why there's a perception that the refs are favoring Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes doesn't think the Chiefs are getting any advantage. The Chiefs quarterback was actually asked about this exact topic this week and he gave an interesting answer. "I don't really pay attention to it," Mahomes told 96.5 The Fan Tuesday, via the Kansas City Star . "I mean, obviously I've been on both sides of it as far as how I felt the calls were made, but at the end of the day, man, those guys [NFL officials] are doing their best to make the best calls and keep it to where the players are making the plays in the game." |
| You can check out our full story on the Chiefs' penalty stats here. Clete Blakeman will be the referee for the AFC title game on Sunday and Patrick Mahomes has a 5-6 record with him as the ref. |
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| 4. NFL Honors: Finalists named for all awards, from MVP to Coach of the Year |
| Two weeks from today, the NFL will be handing out all of its awards at the league's annual "NFL Honors" show, which will be taking place on Feb. 6 in New Orleans. During the event, which will be hosted by Snoop Dogg, we'll find out who won each award, from MVP to Coach of the Year to both Rookie of the Year awards. |
| The NFL decided to add some hype to the event by revealing the finalists for each award today, so let's take a look at the names that made the cut for the biggest awards. |
| MVP |
| Ravens QB Lamar JacksonBills QB Josh AllenEagles RB Saquon BarkleyLions QB Jared GoffBengals QB Joe Burrow |
| Coach of the Year |
| Lions coach Dan CampbellVikings coach Kevin O'ConnellBroncos coach Sean PaytonCommanders coach Dan QuinnChiefs coach Andy Reid |
| Offensive Player of the Year |
| Eagles RB Saquon BarkleyBengals QB Joe BurrowBengals WR Ja'Marr ChaseRavens RB Derrick HenryRavens QB Lamar Jackson |
| Defensive Rookie of the Year |
| Eagles DB Cooper DeJeanRams DE Braden FiskeEagles QB Quinyon MitchellDolphins LB Chop RobinsonRams LB Jared Verse |
| You can see the full list of finalists for every award here. And remember, all of these awards were voted on at the end of the regular season, so the playoffs have no impact on who wins any of these awards. |
| 5. Ranking the best possible Super Bowls |
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| With just four teams left, that means there are only four Super Bowl matchups still possible, so we thought we would rank each of those four games based on which one we want to see the most. |
| Garrett Podell handled our rankings and here's what he came up with: |
| 1. Bills vs. Commanders. "All season long, many football fans and football media paraded around the Detroit Lions as a darling because they have a tortured fanbase and were finally breaking through to relevancy the last two seasons. Well, this matchup gives the people what they said they wanted in the Super Bowl with the Lions: two snake-bitten franchises going head to head for the right to lift their first Vince Lombardi trophy in a long time (the Commanders haven't won it all since 1991) or all time (the Bills have never won the Super Bowl)." |
| 2. Bills vs. Eagles. "This matchup would also provide the Bills the chance to finally get over their NFC East losing streak in the Super Bowl after losing to Washington and the New York Giants once and the Dallas Cowboys twice in the 1990s ... or the Eagles could complete the NFC East sweep." |
| 3. Chiefs vs. Commanders. "This matchup would be a fun glimpse of the present (three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes) vs. the future (likely 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels) at the NFL's quarterback position." |
| 4. Chiefs vs. Eagles. "This would be a rematch of Super Bowl LVII that concluded the 2022 season, a game the Chiefs prevailed in by a score of 38-35. ... Yes, the Chiefs-49ers rematch from last season was an overtime epic, but that San Francisco team was firing on all cylinders on the ground and in the air. The Eagles simply aren't playing at that level right now." |
| Garrett clearly does not want to see the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and he definitely doesn't want to see a rematch of a game that we just saw two years ago (Chiefs vs. Eagles). You can check out the full explanation for his rankings here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Cowboys appear to be on cusp of making a coaching hire |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Cowboys nearing deal with Brian Schottenheimer. It looks like the Cowboys are going to hire Schottenheimer in a deal that will likely get done at some point over the next 24 hours, according to veteran Cowboys beat writer Clarence Hill Jr. Schottenheimer has never been a head coach, and in his last four NFL stops, he's never lasted anywhere more than three seasons, so this will certainly be an interesting hire if it happens. Trent Baalke out in Jacksonville. Not only do the Jags need a new head coach, but they also need a new general manager after Baalke was fired on Wednesday. Based on the timing, this was a shocking move. However, based on the fact that no coaching candidate wanted to work with Baalke, it was a move that Jaguars owner Shad Khan had to make. You can read our full story on Baalke's firing here. Raiders set to hire a general manager. This was the Raiders' first major hiring since Tom Brady become minority owner of the team and they ended up hiring someone Brady is extremely familiar with: John Spytek. The 44-year-old spent the past nine seasons with the Buccaneers, including Brady's three seasons as quarterback. Brady and Spytek were also TEAMMATES at Michigan in 1999. We've got more on the hiring here.Bill Belichick finally signs his contract. The former Patriots coach has finally signed his new contract at UNC, which means it's pretty much a certainty that he'll be staying there for at least the 2025 season. With no signed contract in place over the past six weeks, there was a lot of speculation that Belichick might be looking to make the jump to the NFL. Now, if he leaves for the NFL, it will be costly: He'll have to pay UNC a $10 million buyout if he leaves before June 1 (but just $1 million if he leaves after June 1). Brazil wants to host two NFL games per year. The South American country is hoping to make a deal with the NFL that would put two games per year in Brazil, according to The Athletic. Brazil hosted its first game ever in 2024 and Roger Goodell has said the NFL plans to put another game there in 2025, but it remains to be seen if Brazil will be getting one or two games next season. Bengals hiring a defensive coordinator. The Bengals are expected to hire Al Golden, who spent the past three seasons as the defensive coordinator for Notre Dame. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is familiar with Golden, who spent two seasons as Cincinnati's linebackers coach (2020-21). You can read more about his hiring here. |
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| | | | | AFC Championship | | College Basketball | Come one, come all, it's happening again... Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meet in the postseason with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Watch Buffalo vs. Chiefs this Sunday at 6:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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| | Michigan State and Rutgers battle it out in the big city! Catch the matchup at Madison Square Garden this Saturday at 1:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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