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Monday, November 11, 2024 |
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
After watching all the NFL action on Sunday, I'm just going to go ahead and assume that it's going to be Chiefs vs. Lions in the Super Bowl, because those two teams can't lose, even when they TRY TO GIVE THE GAME AWAY. |
On the Chiefs' end, I thought for sure their undefeated season was over when the Broncos lined up to attempt a 35-yard field goal with one second left, but nope, they blocked the kick and stayed undefeated. As for the Lions, I didn't think they had a chance to win after watching Jared Goff throw FIVE interceptions in just three quarters of action, but nope, they still won. |
Of course, that wasn't the only craziness from Week 10. We'll be covering all the drama in today's newsletter with grades along with our weekly winners and losers. Plus, we'll be making some picks for tonight's game between the Dolphins and Rams. |
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
1. NFL Week 10 grades: Jets get a big 'F' for blowout loss |
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Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that's exactly what we're going to do right now. Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
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- Steelers takeaway: Going into this game, Mike Tomlin had a 25-6 career record against rookie quarterbacks and we saw why, especially in the fourth quarter. With the game on the line, the Steelers defense absolutely shut down Jayden Daniels, holding the Commanders to just 16 yards in the game's final quarter. Offensively, the acquisition of Mike Williams is already looking like a genius move after he caught what proved to be the game-winning TD with just 2:22 left to play. That was one of three TD passes thrown by Russell Wilson. This team is rarely mentioned in the same breath as the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens, but maybe it's time to put them in the conversation because they're looking better and better every week. Grade: B+
- Commanders takeaway: Jayden Daniels got to go up against one of the best defenses in the NFL, and like most quarterbacks playing the Steelers, he struggled. Things got especially ugly for the Commanders during the second half as they only totaled 68 yards of offense over the final 27 minutes of the game. With the offense sputtering, the Commanders defense almost willed the team to a win by forcing two turnovers in the fourth quarter, but the offense couldn't capitalize on either one. In the grand scheme of things, this might sting now, but a one-point loss to one of the best teams in the NFL is something that could give them confidence going forward. The Commanders are still one of the best teams in the NFC. Grade: B
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- Jets takeaway: The season isn't over for the Jets, but this felt like the final nail in the coffin. The defense looked lifeless and the offense did almost nothing after its first two drives of the game. The ugly part is that the Jets had 10 days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday night in Week 9 and they still somehow looked unprepared. If the Jets keep playing like this, they might not win another game this season. Grade: F
- Cardinals takeaway: This game turned into the Kyler Murray show: The Cardinals QB got off to a hot start with two touchdowns in the first quarter and he only got better from there. Murray had a nearly perfect day throwing the ball, completing 91.7% of his passes for 266 yards and a TD. He also tacked on two rushing touchdowns just for good measure. The Cardinals offense got everyone involved with 11 DIFFERENT players finishing with at least 10 yards from scrimmage. The only thing more impressive than Murray was an Arizona defense that terrorized Aaron Rodgers for four straight quarters. Before the season, no one was picking the Cardinals to win the NFC West, but now, they feel like a very real threat to win the division. Grade: A+
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As for the other 24 grades that I handed out in Week 10, you can check those out by clicking here. |
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2. NFL Week 10 winners and losers: Cowboys season is over |
You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list and we're going to check out his losers below. |
LOSERS |
- The Cowboys' season (Cowboys lose 34-6 to Jets). "Dallas, for all intents and purposes, may have lost its remaining hopes for a 2024 run when quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a likely season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9. But Sunday was like a real nail in the coffin , with the rival Eagles rolling all over Mike Zimmer's defense despite an uneven start, and neither Cooper Rush nor Trey Lance inspiring confidence as Prescott's emergency fill-in."
- Sam Darnold's stability (Vikings beat Jaguars, 12-7). "The Vikings won their second straight on Sunday, but for a while, it looked as if Kevin O'Connell's offense would fail to generate anything worthwhile against a porous Jaguars secondary. Darnold, in particular, followed up a two-pick Week 9 outing with an even worse three-interception showing, forcing too many throws. He's got to settle down for them to survive"
- The Bears' QB development plan (Bears lose 19-3 to Patriots). "Blame it on Caleb Williams. Or Shane Waldron. Or the banged-up line. Or Matt Eberflus. The whole offensive operation is out of sync, and the worst part is, Chicago's gone through this same dilemma over and over, from Mitchell Trubisky to Justin Fields to, now, their latest top pick. It's no wonder Eberflus had to acknowledge calls for his job following the Bears' ugly 19-3 loss to the lowly New England Patriots."
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3. 14 crazy facts from Week 10: Chiefs pull off improbable win |
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Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts about Week 10: |
- Chiefs can't lose. The Chiefs came back from an 11-point deficit to beat the Broncos 16-14 and they've now won nine straight games where they were trailing by at least seven points, which is an NFL record (It breaks a mark held by the 2008-09 Colts). The Chiefs also won the last seven games where they trailed at halftime, which ties an NFL record that's also held by the 1989-90 San Francisco 49ers.
- Chiefs invent new way to win. The Broncos' final kick on Sunday was the 108th potential game-tying/go-ahead field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final five seconds of the fourth quarter since 2000 ... and it was the first one that got blocked. The last time any field goal got blocked on the final play of a game came in 2022 when New Orleans' Payton Turner blocked a 63-yard attempt by Atlanta's Younghoe Koo.
- Jaguars invent new way to lose. The Jaguars forced three turnovers while holding the Vikings to zero touchdowns on Sunday. NFL teams had won 195 straight games in that situation dating back to 2006, but the Jags managed to end that streak by losing 12-7.
- Defensive dominance by the Chargers. With their 27-17 win over the Titans, the Chargers still have NOT given up 20 points in a single game this year. That makes them just the fourth team since 1990 to hold their opponents under the 20-point mark through their first nine games, joining the 1990 Giants, 1999 Jaguars and 2013 Chiefs.
- Hurts so good. With two rushing touchdowns against the Cowboys, Jalen Hurts now has 10 for the season, making him the first quarterback in NFL history to reach the mark in both four consecutive seasons. Hurts is also the first quarterback in NFL history with a touchdown pass, a rushing touchdown and a passer rating of 100 or higher in four straight games, passing Jim Hart (1968), Jeff Hostetler (1993) and Lamar Jackson (2020), who all did it in three straight games.
- Travis Kelce is Mr. Touchdown. The Chiefs' tight end scored the 95th TD of his career, which means he now has the fourth-most receiving touchdowns by any tight end in NFL history, including the playoffs. Kelce passed Jimmy Graham and now only trails Antonio Gates (118), Tony Gonzalez (115) and Rob Gronkowski (107). Kelce also tied Tony Gonzalez for the most regular-season TD catches in Chiefs history with 76.
- Bills off to impressive start. The Bills are now 8-2 on the season, which is only notable, because every time they've started 8-2 or better -- it's happened five times previously -- they've gone to at least the AFC Championship game. The last time it happened came in 1993 when they ended up getting to the Super Bowl.
- Josh Allen passes Tom Brady. With the Bills' 30-20 win over the Colts, Josh Allen now has 71 victories, which is the fourth most in NFL history for a QB in his first seven seasons. Allen passed Brady and now only trails Russell Wilson (75), Patrick Mahomes (74) and Joe Flacco (72). With five more wins this year, Allen would have the record to himself.
- Kyler shows off killer instinct. Murray completed 22 of 24 passes against the Jets and with that showing, he became the first QB since 1950 to complete at least 90% of his passes while also adding at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
- Kamara is the king of New Orleans. With 55 rushing yards in the Saints 20-17 win over the Falcons, Kamara now has 6,544 in his career, which moves him past Mark Ingram (6,500) for the most in franchise history.
- Won't you be my Naber. With six catches for 61 yards in Germany, Malik Nabers now has 61 for the season, which is tied with Puka Nacua for the most in NFL history through a player's first eight career games.
- Cowboys are getting clobbered at home. With their 34-6 loss to the Eagles, the Cowboys have now trailed by at least 20 points in five straight homes games, which is an NFL record.
- Rare international overtime. The Panthers' 20-17 win over the Giants marked just the third time that an international game has gone to OT. Before Sunday, the only other times it happened came in 2013 in Canada (Falcons-Bills) and 2017 in London (Commanders-Bengals).
- Lions' wild win. With their 26-23 win over the Texans, the Lions became the first team in 54 years to come back from a deficit of at least 15 points in a game where they also threw five interceptions. The last time it happened came in 1970 when the Baltimore Colts beat the Chicago Bears. Jared Goff also became the first QB since 2007 (Tony Romo) to throw five interceptions in a ROAD game and still win.
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4. NFL Week 10 overreactions: Jalen Hurts should be in the MVP conversation |
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 10 to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Statement: Chief aren't the best team in the AFC. Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Kansas City just keeps finding ways to win football games, even when a loss appears to be staring the Chiefs in the face. Broncos kicker Wil Lutz had a 35-yard field goal attempt that -- if converted -- would have been one of the biggest upsets of the season. Instead, Leo Chenal blocked the chip shot and the Chiefs improved to 9-0, surviving an ugly performance against one of the NFL's top defenses. Are the Chiefs as good as their unbeaten record indicates? Probably not, but Kansas City is the best team in the AFC" |
Statement: Jalen Hurts deserves to be in the MVP conversation. Overreaction or reality: Reality. "It could be too early to place Jalen Hurts with names like Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley in the MVP conversation -- but the Eagles quarterback is making his case. ... Since Week 6, Hurts has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Hurts has completed 71.8% of his passes for 1,046 yards with eight touchdowns to one interception for a 126.1 passer rating (10.2 yards per attempt). Hurts also has eight rushing touchdowns in that stretch. That's 16 touchdowns in five games. Is Hurts the MVP favorite? Absolutely not. He's making a case to be in that conversation now, playing the best football of his career." |
Statement: Mike McCarthy will be the next coach fired. Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "While Jerry Jones could absolutely pull the trigger on McCarthy's tenure after the Cowboys' blowout loss to the Eagles (Dallas is now 3-6), he likely isn't the next head coach to get fired. Matt Eberflus' job is on thin ice as well after the Bears scored just three points in an ugly loss to the Patriots. ... While it wouldn't be shocking if the Cowboys fired McCarthy this week, Eberflus is also hanging on for dear life with the Bears. Both could be unemployed by the end of the week. Just remember McCarthy's team isn't healthy while Eberflus has enough of a failure size with different coaches and quarterbacks to justify moving on from him." |
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5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Dolphins at Rams |
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The final game of Week 10 will be taking place in Los Angeles where the Rams will be looking to continue their hot streak. Since their Week 6 bye, the Rams have won three straight games and if they can make it four in a row, they'll move to just a half game behind the Cardinals in the NFC West. |
As for the Dolphins, their season is basically on the line tonight. Things aren't looking great at 2-6, but if they can win and get to 3-6, they'll be just 1.5 games behind the Broncos for the final wild card spot in the AFC. On the other hand, their season will be all but over if they drop to 2-7. |
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight: |
- Why the Dolphins can win: With Tyreek Hill's status up in the air -- he's listed as questionable with a wrist injury and there's definitely a chance he won't play -- it might make sense for the Dolphins to lean on their rushing attack. The Rams have had some trouble stopping the run this year as they're surrendering 135.1 yards per game, which is the eighth-worst number in the NFL. If Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane both get going, they could definitely carry Miami to a win.
- Why the Rams can win: A big reason the Rams have done so well since their Week 6 bye is because everyone is finally healthy. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have only played three games together this season and not surprisingly, those have been Matthew Stafford's best games. With those two on the field together, Stafford is averaging 298 yards and 2.3 touchdown passes per game (To put that in perspective, no QB in the NFL is even averaging 285 yards per game this season). Basically, when the Rams' best skill players are healthy, this offense is difficult to stop and they're all going to be healthy tonight.
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If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Kyren Williams OVER 20.5 rushing attempts (-105 at BetMGM): Williams has been an absolute workhorse for the Rams this season. For one, he leads the NFL with 20.1 carries per game this year. He's also gone over 20.5 carries in each of his past four games. The Dolphins have a stingy passing defense, so I could see the Rams going heavy on the run tonight, which should mean plenty of carries for their star running back.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Jason Sanders OVER 7.5 points (-105 at BetMGM): Tua Tagovailoa has played three full games for the Dolphins this year and Sanders has gone over 7.5 points in each of those games. With Tua on the field, the Dolphins have been moving the ball, but they've also been settling for field goals, which is why I like Sanders to hit the over here.
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And in case you're wondering, my props are 25-18 on the season (12-8 on kicker props and 13-10 on all other props). |
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And finally, here are our picks for the game. |
DOLPHINS-RAMS PICKS My pick: Rams 30-23 over Dolphins Dubin's pick: Rams 23-17 over Dolphins Prisco's pick: Rams 31-23 over Dolphins |
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6. Extra points: Roger Goodell hints at full NFL international schedule for 2025 |
It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
- NFL likely to play eight international games in 2025. After playing five international games this year, it looks like the NFL is going to up that number to eight in 2025. Right now, we know there will be games in London, Spain and Germany (possibly Berlin). The other international locations that will likely be hosting are Brazil, Mexico City and possibly even Dublin, Ireland. You can read more about the NFL's international expansion here.
- Dak Prescott likely done for the season. It was originally thought that Prescott might only miss four or five games with his hamstring injury, but now, it looks like he's going to miss the rest of the season. The Cowboys QB is expected to get a second opinion on his injury this week and if he doesn't like what he hears, there's a very good chance he'll end up getting season-ending surgery (Full details here).
- Bengals working out two veterans. The Bengals are going to be hosting Xavien Howard for a visit today, according to NFL.com. The Bengals need some serious help on the defensive side of the ball right now and if the four-time Pro Bowl corner has anything left in the tank, he could be an interesting addition for a Cincinnati team that's only one game out of the final wild-card spot in the AFC. The Bengals are also bringing in Leonard Fournette for a workout, according to NFL.com. With Zack Moss on IR, the Bengals are apparently looking to add some depth at running back.
- Nick Bosa hit with fine for MAGA hat. The NFL waited until the election was over, but the league did hand out a fine to Bosa for wearing his MAGA hat on the field. The NFL prohibits players from wearing anything that has a message related to "political activities or causes." Since Bosa broke the rule, he was fined $11,255. You can read our full story on Bosa here.
- Joe Flacco will be keeping his job. Flacco turned the ball over four times against the Bills, but the Colts won't be benching him to bring Anthony Richardson back. "Until I say otherwise, Joe is the starter," coach Shane Steichen said after the 30-20 loss. It might be time to say otherwise. You can read about the Colts QB situation here.
- Injury roundup. We tracked every big injury from Sunday and if you want the latest updates on who got banged up in Week 10, you can check out our injury tracker here.
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