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| Monday, December 11, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| After watching all the games that went down on Sunday, I don't know what's real anymore. I never thought I'd live to see Zach Wilson throw for 300 yards in a game, but that happened yesterday. Also, Joe Flacco is apparently still alive and still pretty good at football. Oh, and the Bengals offense is almost as good with Jake Browning as it is with Joe Burrow. |
| Imagine reading any part of that paragraph one month ago. You would've been laughed out of whatever room you were in. I hate being laughed out of rooms, so I'm going to get to the newsletter. For today, we've got grades for every team that played on Sunday, plus, we've got winners and losers, so let's get to the rundown. |
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's Show: Biggest questions after Week 14 |
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| If I fall asleep while writing the newsletter today, it's because I stayed up until 2:01 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. It's also because I've gone 41 hours without electricity, but that's a completely different story that I'll have to tell another time. |
| Anyway, the three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 14. Here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer: |
- Who will win the NFC East? First, let me preface this by saying that I picked the Cowboys to beat the Eagles on Sunday night and Dallas was even my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl. Also, I think the Cowboys are currently the better team. However, I think the Eagles will probably win the division this year and that has everything to do with the schedule. The Eagles close the season with the Seahawks, Cardinals and Giants (twice), while the Cowboys will face the Bills, Dolphins, Lions and Commanders. With the Eagles getting the easier road, I'm going to take them ... and yup, I already regret my pick.
- Are the Ravens the best team in the AFC? At this point, it feels like the No. 1 seed will be going to the Dolphins or Ravens and if I had to vote right now on who's going to get it, I'd go Ravens all the way. Lamar Jackson had one of his best games of the season on Sunday -- 316 passing yards and three touchdowns -- and he did it in bad weather. If they do get the top seed, it would mark the second time the Ravens have earned it with Lamar Jackson (They also got it back in 2019).
- Can Jake Browning actually lead the Bengals to the playoffs? It's crazy to think about, but a wild-card playoff spot could be on the line in Week 18 when the Bengals host Browns. JAKE BROWNING VS. JOE FLACCO. Browning is playing smart football, he had another huge game on Sunday and I think he can lead the Bengals to a 3-1 record over their final four games, which will likely be good enough to get them in the postseason.
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| 2. Week 14 grades: Bengals earn an 'A' for destroying Colts |
| Every week I team up with four of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Bengals were one of the few teams to earn an "A." |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
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- Colts takeaway: The Colts had a chance to make a huge statement in the AFC playoff race, but instead, they laid a giant egg in Cincinnati. After Ronnie Harrison tied things up at 14 with a pick-six just before halftime, it looked like the Colts were back in it, but then they completely imploded in the second half. The offense couldn't move the ball and the absence of Jonathan Taylor was noticeable with the Colts totaling exactly zero rushing yards in the second half before getting 10 on the final three plays of the game. Defensively, the Colts played like they had never seen a screen pass before with the defense getting burnt multiple times by the short throws. This was a no-show performance in a high stakes game and it could cost the Colts big time in the playoff race down the stretch. Grade: F
- Bengals takeaway: It appears that Jake Browning was NOT a one-game wonder for the Bengals. Six days after dicing up the Jaguars, Browning threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Colts. The Bengals played it safe with their offensive game plan with mostly short passes and that strategy paid off with Chase Brown catching three screens that went for a total of 80 yards, including a 54-yard TD. Browning wasn't a one-trick pony, though; he also took a couple of deep shots (Tee Higgins had two catches in the game that went for more than 25 yards). Browning did make one big mistake with a pick-six in the second quarter, but that didn't end up mattering because the Bengals defense shut out the Colts in the second half. This was an impressive all-around performance by a Bengals team that suddenly looks like a serious contender for a wild-card spot. Grade: A
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- Bills takeaway: "Buffalo was able to find a way to pull out a gutsy win in one of the toughest environments in the NFL. On a night when the wide receivers were unable to make an impact, Josh Allen found other outlets in the passing game like James Cook, while also making plays with his legs. Buffalo built up an early lead thanks to an early turnover and a 14-0 run by the offense, which forced K.C. to play from behind from the jump. In the second half, the defense continued to come up big in the clutch, forcing a key three-and-out by the Chiefs right before the go-ahead field goal drive. The Bills weren't firing on all cylinders, but they made the necessary plays to come out on top and keep their playoff hopes alive." -- Tyler Sullivan. Grade: B+
- Chiefs takeaway: "The Chiefs had an opportunity to win this game, but couldn't get out of their own way. Travis Kelce caught a deep pass from Patrick Mahomes and the tight end lateraled the football to wideout Kadarius Toney, who ran it in for what was thought to be the go-ahead touchdown with just over a minute to play in regulation. However, Toney lined up offsides and erased the play altogether. Kansas City wide receivers continued to put the team behind the eight ball as the position group had a handful of drops and a key second-half turnover on top of the Toney infraction. That contributed to their sluggish start to this game, which found them playing from behind for the entire afternoon. The defense kept them within striking distance throughout the game, but the offense is still missing another reliable weapon outside of Kelce." -- Tyler Sullivan. Grade: C
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Following the Chiefs' loss, both Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes ripped the officiating crew and they're going to be reviewed for that, CBS Sports Lead NFL Insider Jonathan Jones has reported. The review could lead to a fine for one or both guys. |
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| 3. 15 crazy facts from Week 14: Raiders and Vikings play lowest-scoring indoor game in NFL history |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
With that in mind, here are 15 crazy facts about Week 14: - Eagles losing ugly. With their 33-13 loss to the Cowboys, the Eagles became the first team in 40 years to have a record that's eight or more games above .500 and lose back-to-back games by 20 or more points. The last team in that situation to lose consecutive games in that manner was the 1983 Cowboys. The Cowboys started 12-2 that year, got blown out in their final two games of the season and then promptly lost in the wild-card round. That's not a good sign for the Eagles.
- Vikings and Raiders make history. The Vikings' 3-0 win was the lowest-scoring indoor game in NFL History. If you watched any of that game on Sunday. I'm sorry. It was also the lowest-scoring game since 2007 when the Steelers also beat the Dolphins 3-0.
- Goose eggs all over the place. Somehow there were two games on Sunday -- Vikings-Raiders and Texans-Jets -- that had a halftime score of 0-0, marking the first time since Oct. 30, 1988 that we had two games go to halftime with zero points on the same day.
- Jets offense is unstoppable. Although the Jets got blanked in the first half, they ended up scoring 30 points against the Texans. That marked the first time in 18 games that the Jets have scored three touchdowns in a game. That 18-game drought was the longest in the NFL since the Seahawks did it in 1992-93.
- Jets and Texans involved in a punt-off. Not only were these two teams tied 0-0 at halftime, but they also both punted on EVERY possession they had in the first half. That marks the first time since at least 1993 that both teams punted on every possession in a half (excluding possessions that end with a kneel down).
- Joe Browning or Jake Burrow. Jake Browning has now completed 79% of his passes, which is the highest completion percentage in NFL history for a quarterback through his first three starts. With a 54-yard TD pass against the Colts, Browning now has two TD passes of 50 yards or more on the season, which is as many as Joe Burrow.
- Deebo does good: With 149 receiving yards along with one rushing TD and one receiving TD against the Seahawks, Deebo Samuel became the second player in NFL history with at least 100 receiving yards, a receiving TD and a rushing TD in back-to-back games, joining Timmy Brown, who pulled off the same feat in 1960.
- 49ers are destroying everyone. With their 28-16 win over the Seahawks, the 49ers have now won a total of 19 games by 12 points or more since the start of last season. That matches the 1941-42 Bears for the most 12-point wins over two seasons in NFL history.
- Ravens pick up unique overtime win. The Ravens were able to beat the Rams, thanks to a walk-off touchdown on a punt return by Tylan Wallace. The return marked just the fourth time in NFL History that an OT game has ended with a punt return. The crazy part is that two of the four returns have happened this season (Xavien Gipson helped the Jets beat the Bills with a punt return in Week 1).
- Fabulous Flacco. Joe Flacco threw THREE touchdown passes of at least 30 yards, becoming the first Browns QB to accomplish that in one game since Brian Sipe did it during his MVP season in 1980.
- Fabulous Flacco, Part II. With the Browns' win, Joe Flacco became the fourth starting QB to win a game with the Browns this year, joining Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns are now just the eighth team since 1950 to win at least one game with four different quarterbacks in a single season.
- Dallas' kicker does long distance. Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey now holds the record for longest first-quarter field goal in NFL history. Aubrey set it against the Eagles on Sunday when he hit from 60 yards out. Aubrey also became the first player in NFL history to hit two field goals of at least 59 yards in the same game.
- AFC is on fire. The AFC has 11 teams in the conference that currently have a winning record, which is the highest number by one conference through 14 weeks since 1970.
- NFC teams almost always lose to Lamar. With a win over the Rams on Sunday, Lamar Jackson now has a 19-1 career record against NFC teams. That is the best record since 1970 by a QB against the opposing conference.
- Justin Tucker back on top. Two weeks ago, the Ravens star lost his title as the most accurate kicker in NFL history to Younghoe Koo, but he now has the title back after Koo missed two field goals on Sunday against the Buccaneers.
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| 4. NFL Week 14 winners and losers: Bills' playoff hopes are no longer on life support |
| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, which you can check out below. |
| Winners |
- Bills' playoff hopes. "We keep writing off the Buffalo Bills, and hey, it's an easy thing to do, considering their roller-coaster crunch-time resume, their boom-or-bust gunslinger at quarterback and their wholly unpredictable defense. But they stepped up when it mattered against the Chiefs of all teams, infuriating Patrick Mahomes to a degree not often seen."
- The Joe Flacco revenge tour. "Who, exactly, is Flacco proving wrong? Everyone that told him for months that he was too old, too blah, too whatever to deserve a backup job! And especially the Jets, who declined a reunion he sought despite sorely needing quarterback help all year. At 38, he already clearly looks like the Browns' best QB of 2023, fresh off a three-touchdown outing in a win over the Jaguars."
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| Losers |
- The Panthers' future. "It's been cratering all season, to be fair, but man, even on a day where Derek Carr -- cracked ribs and all -- tried his best to be even more inefficient than ailing rookie Bryce Young, Carolina could muster just six points and 3.8 yards per play. Unlike last year, the switch to an interim coach hasn't sparked any momentum here."
- The inevitable playoff game with an NFC South team. "No matter who wins in games between the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints, does anyone really, truly win? Tampa Bay is back on "top" of the division after Baker Mayfield outlasted Desmond Ridder on Sunday, which means, as of this moment, the Bucs would play host to the Cowboys in a wild-card game for the second straight season. It's an indictment on the entire South, which gets points for scrappiness -- both Mayfield and Ridder had their late-game moments -- but never registers as a true threat."
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| 5. Monday preview: Prepping you for tonight's doubleheader |
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| The NFL is throwing us a curveball tonight. Not only are we getting a Monday night doubleheader, but both games will be kicking off at the same time. The Titans-Dolphins game will be starting at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN while Packers-Giants will be kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC. |
My good buddy Jared Dubin put together our deep-dive preview for the Titans-Dolphins game, and here's how he sees the game playing out (If you want a Giants-Packers preview, you can see there here): |
- Why the Titans can win: The Titans do NOT have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Dolphins, so if they're going to win, they're going to want to shorten the game. The upside there is that Tennessee has the perfect weapon for shortening an NFL game: Derrick Henry. If the Titans running back has a big night, that will keep the clock moving and it will minimize the amount of time that the Dolphins offense is on the field.
- Why the Dolphins can win: The Dolphins have a high-powered passing offense and the Titans have not done a good job this year of stopping the pass, which could open the door for Tua Tagovailoa to have a big game. If that happens, it's almost a guarantee that Miami will win. The Dolphins are 5-0 this year when Tua throws for more than 285 yards, but just 4-3 when he goes under that number.
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| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here's the prop I like: |
- ONE PROP I LIKE: Jason Sanders OVER 7.5 points (-138). Heading into Week 14, opposing kickers have been scoring an average of 9.6 points per game against the Titans, which is the highest number in the NFL. To put that in perspective, only one other team is above nine. If you combine that with the fact that Jason Sanders has gone over 7.5 in three straight games, that makes this feel like a comfortable bet.
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| My prime-time prop record is 19-12 this year. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
| Jared's pick: Dolphins 33-13 over Titans
My pick: Dolphins 34-20 over Titans
My GB-NYG pick: Packers 27-17 over Giants |
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of our experts are picking the Dolphins and Packers to win, but we don't all agree on who's going to cover the spread. Only six of us having the Dolphins cover as a 13.5-point favorite. And we're split down the middle about whether the Packers will cover as a 6.5-point favorite. |
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| 6. Extra points: Joe Flacco will be the Browns' starting QB for the rest of the season |
| It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
- Joe Flacco earns Browns' starting QB job. There will be no more musical chairs at quarterback for the Browns this year. After watching Joe Flacco dice up the Jaguars, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski announced that Flacco will be the team's starter for the rest of the year.
- Justin Jefferson taken to hospital. The Vikings receiver was on the field on Sunday for the first time since Week 5, but unfortunately, he didn't last long. Jefferson had to leave the game after taking a vicious hit in the second quarter against the Raiders. The receiver was then taken to the hospital as a precaution. You can read more about his situation here.
- Rough day for QB injuries. Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud both had to exit their game on Sunday due to injury. Stroud entered concussion protocol after taking a big hit in the fourth quarter against the Jets. As for Herbert, he had to leave the game in the first half after fracturing his right index finger. With the Chargers playing on Thursday against the Raiders, Herbert is reportedly not expected to play in Week 15.
- Frank Wycheck dies at age 52 . The Tennessee Titans legend passed away over the weekend after falling and hitting his head at his house in Chattanooga. Wycheck etched his name in NFL history back in 1999 when he threw the lateral that keyed the Music City Miracle in a Titans playoff win over the Bills. You can read more about Wycheck's life here.
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