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| Monday, September 25, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| If I sound tired this morning, it's because I stayed up all night rewatching EVERY Dolphins touchdown. And wait, I think they just scored again. |
| The Dolphins dropped 70 points on the Broncos, who probably should just take the rest of the month off to recover from the loss. We'll be going in depth on Miami's win in today's newsletter, plus we'll be handing out some winners and losers. |
| Also, please grab a small snack and your reading glasses, because I'm pretty sure this is the longest newsletter we've ever done here. |
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It's the perfect gift to get for your favorite football-loving friend at the start of the season. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Today's Show: 10 takeaways from Week 3 |
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| If I sound tired right now, it's because I stayed up until 3 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson, which I did after rewatching all of Miami's touchdowns. |
| The three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 3 and here are a few of the topics we covered: |
- The Dolphins look like the best team in the NFL. After watching the Dolphins score 70 points on the Broncos. we are now all sold on Miami as the best team in the AFC and possibly even the best team in the NFL. The thing that sets them apart is that Mike McDaniel has turned into one of the smartest offensive coaches in the league and when you combine that with the fact that he has an accurate QB (Tua), who has an absurd amount of offensive weapons at his disposal, it's an unbeatable combination.
- What was the biggest upset from Sunday? We spent a good 10 minutes debating this topic. I took the obvious choice with the Cardinals beating the Cowboys. Brinson thought the Colts topping the Ravens was the biggest shocker while Wilson went with Texans over Jaguars. For me, I picked the Cowboys because they're supposed to be a Super Bowl contender and they got outclassed by what was supposed to be the worst team in football (Note: I can unequivocally say they're not the worst team in football).
- What should the Jets do with Zach Wilson? We actually all agreed that the solution here is to dump Wilson. If the Jets keep him at QB, they're essentially throwing away a roster that's built to win now. Bringing in a QB wouldn't be easy -- they'd have to learn the offense and build chemistry with the receivers -- but that feels like the only option if the Jets want to save their season. In their 15-10 loss to the Patriots, they might have been able to win if they could have mustered ANY OFFENSE AT ALL during the first three quarters.
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| We also have some winners and losers because you can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers: |
| Winners |
- The entire Dolphins offense. When you score 70, your entire offense is automatically listed in the winner's column. The scariest thing about the Dolphins is that they did all of this even though Jaylen Waddle was out with an injury.
- Taylor Swift/NFL fans. It's a good thing Taylor showed up at the Bears-Chiefs game because that ended up being the only entertaining part of Kansas City's win.
- Brandon Staley. The Chargers coach tried his best to lose on Sunday, but the Vikings bailed him out by out-Chargering the Chargers. Staley decided to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 24 late in the fourth quarter and although the play failed, the Chargers won because of the Vikings' embarrassing clock management in the final 30 seconds. Does Staley deserve to be on the winner's list? Maybe not, but we're putting him here so that he gets a week off the hot seat. His backside is probably on fire at this point.
- Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals' first-year coach absolutely embarrassed the Cowboys. The Cardinals looked better on offense, defense and special teams.
- Myles Garrett. The man is unstoppable. The Browns had five sacks in their 27-3 win over the Titans on Sunday and Garrett had 3.5 of them.
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| Losers |
- Sean Payton. Forget the fact that the Dolphins score 70 points. Payton is 0-3, which is mildly embarrassing when you consider that Nathaniel Hackett was 2-1 at the same point last year.
- Sam Howell. He's going to be having nightmares about the Bills defense for the next few days. Not only did he get sacked NINE times, but he also threw four interceptions. Yikes.
- Jaguars special teams. This unit had a total meltdown. Not only did they let a field goal get blocked, but they also gave up a kickoff return touchdown to a man who weighs 255 pounds. No one over 250 should be able to return a kickoff for a touchdown, but the Jags let it happen.
- The Titans offense. If you missed the Titans play, you didn't really miss anything. The Titans only mustered 94 YARDS OF TOTAL OFFENSE, which was the team's lowest total since moving to Tennessee in 1997.
- Josh McDaniels. Does anyone know what he was doing at the end of the game last night? McDaniels continues to make baffling decisions that baffle even people who can't be baffled.
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| All right, let's move to some grades. |
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| 2. Week 3 grades: Browns get an 'A' for destroying Titans |
| Every week I team up with six of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Browns got a solid grade for destroying the Titans. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
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- Titans takeaway: The Titans might want to blow things up and start over on offense, because what they're doing right now simply isn't working. In this game, the Titans didn't even bother trying to run the ball even though their offensive line was completely overmatched. On their first nine plays, the Titans inexplicably called seven passes and Ryan Tannehill couldn't do anything. That was pretty much indicative of how the day went for a Titans offense that only gained six first downs. For the second time in three weeks, Tannehill was wildly inaccurate (13 of 25), but that wasn't all on him because he rarely had time to throw. If the Titans can figure out their offensive issues, this team can compete in the AFC South, but if not, it's going to be a long season for Tennessee. Grade: F
- Browns takeaway: The Browns have had one of the best defenses in football through two weeks, and somehow, they looked even better this week. Myles Garrett had a monster game as he racked up 3.5 of the five sacks that the Browns recorded. However, it wasn't just Garrett who shined. The Browns defense absolutely suffocated the Titans, holding them to just 94 yards, which is the second fewest Cleveland has given up since 1990. If the defense keeps playing like this, the Browns are likely going to win a lot of games no matter what the offense does. Grade: A
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- Colts takeaway: The Colts won this game because they played nearly perfect football. Defensively, they weren't completely able to stop Lamar Jackson, but they more than made up for that with several big plays, including four sacks and two forced fumbles (one of them by Jackson). The defense also came up with a key fourth-down stop in overtime that set up Matt Gay's game-winning field goal. Offensively, Gardner Minshew seems to have lit a spark in the Colts offense. Despite being sacked five times, he still managed to throw for 227 yards. Minshew got a lot of help from Zack Moss, who took a lot of pressure off the Colts passing game by running for 122 yards. Of course, we also have to mention Gay's name again. The Colts kicker set an NFL record by becoming the first kicker in league history to hit four field goals from 50 yards or more in a game. That total includes his 53-yard game-winner in overtime. At 2-1, the Colts are now one of the pleasant surprises of the NFL season. Grade: A-
- Ravens takeaway: The Ravens are going to be scratching their heads about this loss over the next few days. After scoring a touchdown on their opening drive, the Ravens offense almost disappeared. On their six possessions after the TD, they punted four times and lost two fumbles. Lamar Jackson attempted to carry the team on his back with 303 total yards (202 passing, 101 rushing), but even he made a few mistakes, including a lost fumble. Not to mention, he also took a few ugly sacks, including one late in the fourth quarter where he lost 10 yards. The Ravens were missing seven starters in this game, but you can bet John Harbaugh won't use that as an excuse on a day where the Colts outplayed them. Grade: C-
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| 3. 14 crazy facts from Week 3: Dolphins make history with 70-point game |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts about Week 3 with a major focus on the Dolphins: |
- Dolphins score 70. With their 70-point output, the Dolphins are now tied for the third-highest scoring game in NFL history. It's also the highest total by any team since 1966 when Washington scored 72 points. The NFL record for points scored in a game is 73 points, which happened in the 1940 NFL championship game when Chicago beat Washington 73-0.
- Fast Five. The Dolphins scored 10 touchdowns, which isn't a record, but they did become the first team in NFL history with five rushing touchdowns and five receiving touchdowns in the same game.
- Dolphins top 700 yards. During their huge win, the Dolphins totaled 726 yards of offense, which is the second-highest total in NFL history, trailing only the Rams, who put up 735 yards during a game in 1951. Miami's total is also more than the Jets (675) and Titans (720) have on the entire season.
- Two times four. The Dolphins had TWO different players score four touchdowns in this game (Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane), marking only the second time in NFL history that a pair of teammates has accomplished that. The only other time it happened came in 2004 when Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock did it for the Chiefs. Achane also set the Dolphins' rookie rushing record with 203 yards.
- Broncos get blown out. Denver's 50-point loss to the Dolphins was the team's THIRD 50-point loss in franchise history, which is tied for the most by any team in NFL history.
- Tua keeps beating Super Bowl-winning coaches. The Dolphins' win over Denver means that Tua Tagovailoa has now won 10 straight games against Super Bowl-winning coaches, which is an NFL record. Tua had been tied with three other quarterbacks, but now, he has the record to himself.
- Long range star. During the Colts' 22-19 win over the Ravens, Matt Gay became the first player in NFL history to hit FOUR field goals from 50 yards or more in a single game. Gay's five-field-goal day included kicks from 31, 53, 53, 53 and 54.
- Uncanny accuracy. During the Chargers' 28-24 win over the Vikings, Herbert completed 85.1% of his passes, which is the highest completion percentage ever for a QB who attempted 45 or more passes in a game.
- Bills defense pulls off rare feat. The Bills defense beat up on the Commanders in Buffalo's 37-3 win. Not only did the Bills force four interceptions, but they also sacked Sam Howell nine times. That makes the Bills the first team since the 1985 Cowboys to pick off four passes and record at least nine sacks in the same game.
- No one can cover Justin Jefferson. With 149 yards against the Chargers, Jefferson now has 458 yards on the season, which is tied with Wes Welker for the most ever by any player through three games. Welker hit that number with the Patriots in 2011.
- Houston, the Jaguars have a problem. The Jaguars' loss to the Texans means that Trevor Lawrence is now 1-4 in his career against them. The Jaguars were favored in all four losses, which makes Lawrence the first QB since 1970 to be upset four times by one opponent within his first three NFL seasons.
- Browns defense is off to historical start. The Browns have only surrendered 491 yards through three games, which is the fewest amount of yards that any team has surrendered through three games since 1999, when the Buccaneers held their first three opponents to 430 total yards.
- Comeback kids. The Packers beat the Saints on Sunday despite the fact that they were trailing 17-0 in the fourth quarter. The 17-point comeback is tied for the Packers' largest fourth-quarterback comeback over the past 73 years.
- Moving on up. Thanks to the Chiefs' win over the Bears, Andy Reid now has 271 wins in his coaching career, which is the fourth most in NFL history. Reid moves past Tom Landry and now only trails Don Shula (347), Bill Belichick (330) and George Halas (324).
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| 4. Monday preview, Part I: Prepping you for Eagles at Buccaneers |
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| The first game of the night will feature Philadelphia and Tampa Bay in a game that kicks off at 7:15 p.m. ET on ABC. |
| My good buddy Jeff Kerr did a deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
- Why the Eagles can win: The Eagles have proven this year that they can beat you however they need to. Last week, the Eagles couldn't get their passing game going, so they turned to a rushing attack that ended up gaining 259 yards. The Buccaneers have the third-best rushing defense in the NFL, so the Eagles may have to lean on Jalen Hurts tonight, which shouldn't be an issue. Hurts has plenty of weapons and he knows how to use them, so don't be surprised if he finds some success against Tampa Bay.
- Why the Buccaneers can win: The Buccaneers defense has been surprisingly good this year and if Tampa Bay is going to pull off the upset, that's going to have to continue tonight. If the defense can turn this into a slugfest, that will give Tampa Bay a fighting chance. Offensively, Baker Mayfield hasn't turned the ball over a single time this year and if that streak continues, that will be good news for the Buccaneers. Basically, Tampa needs a huge game from its defense and for the offense to not make any dumb mistakes. If both of those things happen, the Bucs could definitely win.
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| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan has put together a full gambling preview. |
- ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: A.J. Brown OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-139). "Calling our shot here. A.J. Brown returns to form on Monday night after a sluggish start to the year and jumps over this total. Brown is still the most targeted weapon in this Eagles offense and is now facing a Bucs secondary that allowed D.J. Moore to go for over 100 yards receiving in Week 2 and Justin Jefferson to post 150 receiving yards in the opener."
- ONE PROP I LIKE: Jake Elliott OVER 7.5 points (-106). I've given out six prime-time kicker props this year and I'm 6-0, so let's see if we can keep this rolling. Sure, the law of averages says I'm going to lose at some point, but I don't believe in laws and I don't believe in averages, so maybe I can keep this streak going. I like Elliott to go over 7.5 here for multiple reasons. For one, the Eagles offense hasn't been impressive as it was last year and they've been settling for more field goals, which is good news for Elliott, who's gone over 7.5 in both of Philly's games this year. Also, he's gone over this number in five of his past six games dating back to last season, including the playoffs.
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| Kerr's pick: Eagles 27-23 over Buccaneers
Sullivan's pick: Eagles 27-21 over Buccaneers
My pick: Eagles 27-24 over Buccaneers |
| Yes, we all have the Eagles scoring 27 points, and now, we didn't copy each other's homework. |
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our eight experts unanimously agree that the Eagles are going to win. However, only three of us think that the Eagles will cover as a five-point favorite. |
| 5. Monday preview, Part II: Prepping you for Rams at Bengals |
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| The Bengals have kept the status of Joe Burrow a mystery all week, which means we're all going to find out together tonight whether he's playing. For that reason alone, you'll want to be tuning in when this game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. |
| My newsletter associate Cody Benjamin put together our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
- Why the Rams can win: This could turn into an Aaron Donald game. Donald and the Rams defense will either get to face Jake Browning or a hobbled Joe Burrow and I'm guessing that they'll be licking their chops no matter who's out there. Also, the Rams offense seems to have founds its spark again after taking off the 2022 season. Matthew Stafford has looked good through two weeks and the Bengals defense hasn't, which means this could be a night where Stafford goes off.
- Why the Bengals can win: The Bengals defense hasn't been as dominant as last year, but the talent is there and if they show up for this game, the Bengals should be able to keep it close no matter who is playing quarterback for them. The Bengals will need a huge night from their secondary, a unit that will need to contain Rams receiver Puka Nacua. If the Bengals can slow down the L.A. passing game, that will force the Rams to run, which is something they haven't been good at this season. With Burrow's health up in the air, it's hard to imagine the Bengals winning unless the defense comes through with a huge game.
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| If you're thinking about betting on the game, Jordan Dajani has put together a full gambling preview. |
- ONE PROP JORDAN LIKES: Brett Maher OVER 1.5 field goals (+108). "Maher has made three field goals in each of his first two games with the Rams, so yeah, I'll take a flier with plus money."
- ONE PROP I LIKE: Joe Mixon rushing attempts OVER 14.5 (-123). I've taken a kicker prop in every prime-time game this year, but I'm changing it up here and that's mostly because I have no idea if Joe Burrow will be playing. I can't trust McPherson if I don't know who will be under center for the Bengals and I can't trust Maher if I don't know what kind of game flow to expect (Although I do like Jordan's kicker prop). The one thing I do know is if that if Burrow does play, he won't be 100%, which means the Bengals will likely lean on Mixon. On the other hand, if he doesn't play, Mixon might end up being the Bengals' best offensive player in this game.
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You can check out Jordan's full gambling preview by clicking here. Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
| Cody's pick: Rams 24-20 over Bengals
Jordan's pick: Rams 25-20 over Bengals
My pick: Bengals 23-20 over Steelers |
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| 6. Extra points: Super Bowl halftime show announced |
| It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
- Usher will be handling the Super Bowl halftime show. With the Super Bowl in Las Vegas this year, the NFL needed to bring in a big name for the halftime show and that's exactly what the league did by selecting Usher. For more on the halftime show, be sure to check out our full story here.
- Derek Carr could miss multiple weeks. The Saints QB injured his AC joint against the Packers on Sunday, an injury that could keep him sidelined for a few weeks. It's not known how much time Carr will miss until the swelling goes down, but it's almost a guarantee that Jameis Winston will be starting in Week 4 against the Buccaneers.
- Mike Williams out for the season. The Chargers receiver suffered a torn ACL against the Vikings that is going to knock him out for the rest of the season. Williams caught seven passes for 121 yards and a TD before being injured in the fourth quarter.
- Steelers plane makes emergency landing. The Steelers were supposed to arrive in Pittsburgh at 5:30 a.m. on Monday, but that didn't happen because their flight had to make an emergency landing in Kansas City. The Steelers now aren't expected to be back in Pittsburgh until Monday afternoon. For the full details on this situation, be sure to click here.
- Nick Chubb gets good news. When Chubb injured his knee in Week 2, it looked like he might have torn multiple ligaments, but it appears that's not the case. Apparently, Chubb avoided an ACL tear and only tore his MCL, which means he could be back on the field in six to eight months. You can read more about Chubb here .
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