NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally

NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally Things could have gone better or worse today following the release of the mighty NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the headline data point from the big jobs report). NFP came in at 209k vs 225k forecasts which may as well have been "as-expected." That was a victory in a sense, if we were comparing it to yesterday's ADP number (497k!). Bonds rallied initially for exactly that reason, but then pulled back because 200k+ is still very solid--more than enough to keep the Fed on track to hike 2 more times in 2023. Econ Data / EventsNonfarm Payrolls209k vs 225k f'cast, 339k prev Unemployment 3.6 vs 3.6 f'cast, 3.7 prev Market Movement Recap08:45 AM Slightly weaker overnight, nice bounce after NFP, gains now evaporating. 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.058. MBS down an eighth. 09:38 AM Bonds fully erased gains, but are stabilizing once again. 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.064. MBS down only 2 ticks (.06). 11:47 AM MBS back into positive territory, up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr yields are nearly unchanged again at 4.036. 03:45 PM MBS back into negative territory, down 1 tick (.03) after being up as much as a quarter point. 10s are up 3bps at 4.062

July 7, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally NFP Threads The Needle, But Doesn't Deliver a Rally Things could have gone better or worse today following the release of the mighty NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the headline data point from the big jobs report).&n... (read more) Rob Chrisman Solar for LOs; New Correspondent, Non-QM, Renovation Products; Freddie and Fannie News; Job Numbers Move Mortgage Rates What’s our Federal Reserve concerned about? I was in a restaurant last night in Truckee, California, and was shown the table and handed the menu. When the waiter came back five minutes later, he said, “While you were deciding, we raised our prices.” ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.14% -0.08% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.14% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.15 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.85% -0.15 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.95% -0.03 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.10% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.82% -0.18 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.50% -0.15% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.18 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/6 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 6.23% -0.03 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.91% +0.11 0.69 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/28 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.36 -0.11 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.36 -0.11 UMBS 6.0 100.00 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 98.41 -0.11 GNMA 6.0 99.95 -0.05 Pricing as of: 7/7 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0620 +0.0310 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.944 -0.045 5 YR Treasury 4.353 +0.003 7 YR Treasury 4.226 +0.023 10 YR Treasury 4.062 +0.031 30 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.047 Pricing as of: 7/7 5:31PM EST Latest Video Real estate facing low inventories, foreclosures, and delinquencies, says B... Mortgage rates soar to highest level since November The 2pm Bond Report — July 7, 2023 SoftBank goes on funding offensive as VC funding slump persists Around the Web CNBC Federal student loan repayment is about to change in a big way. What borrowers need to know CNBC Fed's Goolsbee sees 'golden path' to lower inflation without a recession Calculated Risk Blog Comments on June Employment Report Reuters June US jobs growth cools, but wages won't comfort Fed Marketwatch July Fed rate hike remains largely priced in, expectations for September or November hike soften somewhat cnbc Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a slower pace, meeting minutes show CNBC Dow falls nearly 500 points as Thursday's sell-off on rate fears accelerates: Live updates CNBC Job openings fall by half a million Reuters Bonds whipsaw and world stocks flatline after contradictory jobs data Calculated Risk Blog Heavy Truck Sales Up 15% Year-over-year in June Calculated Risk Blog Wednesday: FOMC Minutes CNBC Europe stocks open lower as economic gloom returns; Fed minutes due CNBC Inflation blame game: UK economic woes set government and central bank on a collision course

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