That's a big ol' earnings update | Slooooooow moooootion |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for September 24th in 3:13 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Nike’s quarterly earnings update was stronger than expected
  2. Stock picking has only been working in a few niche areas recently – Read Now
  3. Fresh survey data could hint at an economic slowdown this month
1/3

Rally-Oop

Rally-Oop

What’s Going On Here?

Nike announced quarterly results late on Tuesday that dunked on investors’ expectations, and the sportswear giant’s shares initially sprang up 9% on Wednesday.

What Does This Mean?

Nike’s quarterly revenue might’ve been slightly lower than the same time last year, but it wiped the floor with investors’ forecasts, and its profit – which rose versus last year – did too. Just as Nike predicted back in March, sales in China and Europe climbed in line with the post-pandemic recovery, but those in North America – Nike’s biggest market – weren’t in such good shape.

Nike’s outrageous three-pointer last quarter came from ecommerce, with online sales up 82% on the same time last year (tweet this). No surprises there: it’s been investing in its website and apps, transforming smaller stores into collection hubs, and picking up customers who were avoiding malls like the – well, you know. Oh, and that means ecommerce now represents a third of its overall sales – a target the sports brand didn’t expect to hit till 2023.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Nike's got competition.
Nike also forecasted it’ll grow its annual revenue by “high single digits” – so 7-9%, up from its June prediction of, well, 0%. That so-called “beat and raise” doesn’t just help explain why Nike’s stock rose, but its rivals’ too: Under Armour’s shares were initially up 6%, while Europe’s Adidas and Puma jumped 5%. They haven’t even given their updates yet, but investors probably think a positive update for Nike bodes well for other sports brands.

Zooming in: Just do it yourself.
Ecommerce could be a game-changer for Nike’s earnings: it enables the sportswear brand to sell directly to consumers (DTC), rather than through third-party retailers that take a cut. And while an online DTC business does come with extra costs like warehousing, shipping, and returns, that won’t matter if it has enough sales: increased profitability will allow it to reinvest in the business, not to mention repay shareholders via higher dividends and share buybacks.

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2/3 Premium

Passive Investors Can Relax

What’s Going On Here?

The majority of actively managed investment funds failed to outperform passive equivalents over the past year, but there are some areas where stockpicking has delivered.

Find out which stocks are worth picking in today’s Premium Insight

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3/3

Not So Fast

Not So Fast

What’s Going On Here?

Fresh survey data out on Wednesday showed activity in the UK and eurozone economies rose this month, but things still aren’t moving nearly as quickly as economists had hoped.

What Does This Mean?

These monthly surveys – which ask business managers across manufacturing and services industries how busy they’ve been compared to the month before – are combined into a single statistic: higher than 50 signals an economic expansion, lower than 50 signals a contraction. And while the UK and eurozone’s activity came in above that mark – though just barely in the latter’s case – it still fell short of economists’ predictions. That certainly can’t be pinned on the regions’ manufacturing industries, which performed better than expected: it’s all on services – think lawyers, accountants, and hospitality workers – whose activity was weaker than forecast.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Time for a new approach.
These surveys focus on a single month, but investment bank Goldman Sachs reckons they’re actually a better way to gauge economic activity across a few months. That’s partly because the surveys only show the number of firms that report higher, lower, and unchanged activity, while ignoring the extent of the changes themselves. Goldman thinks the issue is easily solved: the bank said a moving average that puts more weight on recent data would better reflect the reality behind the surveys.

For markets: Don’t believe the numbers.
Based on an appropriately weighted moving average, Goldman’s worked out that the eurozone’s 50.9 survey reading in September doesn’t actually correspond with the slight pickup in growth the figure suggests. In fact, the eurozone economy probably shrank this month relative to August. Either way, over-50 readings are pretty normal after sharp downturns, and it could take more than that to convince pessimistic investors of a steady recovery – namely consistent improvements in survey data between now and when third-quarter economic growth data gets published next month.

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💬 Quote of the day

“Fantasy is hardly an escape from reality. It’s a way of understanding it.”

– Lloyd Alexander (an American author)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Laundry Day

“Why would banks help criminals launder money given the risks involved?”

– Joe in London, UK

“It’s hard to say definitively why anyone does anything, Joe, but here are a couple of big-picture thoughts. First, the world’s biggest banks are traded on the stock market, which means they make public declarations about how much they’ll earn and have investors who will punish them if they fall short. If the weight of those promises then trickles down to their employees, it can pressure them to hit targets or risk losing their jobs – and push them into doing things they otherwise wouldn’t. Second, the risk of billions of dollars in fines or sanctions might not actually be a strong enough disincentive for wrongdoing. After all, a bank would only face that outcome if it was caught out, investigated, and found guilty. So in the long run, it might be cheaper and more profitable for a bank to settle investigations using some of its ill-gotten gains than not to break the rules at all.”

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💨 The times they are a-changing

This isn’t the world that we started the year with, and it probably won’t be the same one we get next year either. So where do our investments – and our economies – fit into all this? That’s where our event, “A Tale Of Two Recoveries”, comes in…

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📚 What we're reading

  • Love Island, eat your heart out (Hypebeast)
  • Appointment TV lives on (Esquire)
  • What would happen if Facebook vanished? (Gizmodo)
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