| | | | Tuesday, June 4, 2024 | | The first month of the season can have a heck of an impact on how we view players the rest of the way, and it can take an awfully long time to recover from that. And getting too anchored to those early-season results can cause Fantasy players to miss the forest for the trees with some players. | | Take Alex Bregman, who plenty of Fantasy players were probably already predisposed to not believe in, given his fall from the days when he was one of the game's truly elite hitters in recent seasons. How many of you just wrote him off when Bregman opened the season in a deep slump, hitting .201/.270/.264 in his first 37 games? Did you realize he's hitting .277 with eight homers, 12 runs, and 16 RBI in his past 21 games? Until Frank Stampfl brought it up on Monday night's Fantasy Baseball Today, I'll admit, I hadn't. | | Or take Nolan Gorman. One of last season's breakout stars looked like a complete fluke after the first month or so of the season, and a guy who might have more power upside than anyone at the second base position found himself dropped in countless leagues. And he's still available in 26% of CBS Fantasy leagues, despite the fact that, after homering twice Monday night against the Astros is now up to a .230/.318/.494 line for the season, with a 36-homer pace. | | Gorman still deserves to be rostered in all leagues, and there's still a chance for those of you in those 26% of leagues where he's available to take advantage of the skepticism created by his slow start. But, given the run he's on right now – five homers in his past six games, nine in his past 19 – this might be your last chance. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we're recapping the rest of Monday's action, starting with the other top waiver-wire priorities to look for: | | | | Monday's top waiver targets | | | | Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets (68%) – Between his own slow start and then thumb injury, Alvarez remains more widely available than he probably should be even as he has begun his minor-league rehab assignment in recent days. The schedule looks like it's going to delay his return from the IL – the Mets play just three games over the next week as they get set to travel to London to take on the Phillies this weekend, a series Alvarez is not expected to participate in. But as of Monday, Alvarez seems like a good bet to be activated next week when they return, and there aren't many players with more upside at the catcher position; certainly none this widely available. | | Connor Norby, 2B, Orioles (14%) – With Jorge Mateo placed on the IL, the Orioles called on one of their seemingly dozen interesting young hitting prospects to replace him, with Norby getting the call for his MLB debut Monday night. Norby went 0 for 3 with a couple of strikeouts, but has remained a very productive hitter in the high minors, hitting .293/.365/.501 with 34 homers and 17 steals in 198 games at Triple-A over the past couple of seasons, including an .884 OPS this season. He doesn't have the upside of a Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, especially as a power hitter, but I'll always take a flier on a talented young player if I have the roster spot to play with. Let's see if he can get hot and make a difference. | | | | Adam Mazur, SP, Padres (5%) – Mazur moved quickly through the minors, making his debut last season after being a second-round pick in 2022, and he'll make his MLB debut after just 28 professional starts as he's being called on to start Tuesday against the Angels . Mazur dominated Double-A to open the season, sporting a 1.95 ERA in six starts, but stumbled a bit since getting to Triple-A, where he was tagged for 15 runs in 19 innings in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast Leagues. Mazur hasn't shown a ton of strikeout upside so far, with a 23.6% rate in the minors, which probably limits his appeal for Fantasy at least a little bit. It might just be a mid-rotation ceiling, though guys like that have had a lot of success in the much more pitcher-friendly environment of the majors this season, so I'm willing to give him a look if I have a roster spot to play with, just in case he gets hot. | | Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds (37%) – By the time Marte's 80-game suspension was announced this spring, he already seemed like he might be the odd man out in the Reds crowded infield situation. But now, with Marte set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment and eligible to return from his suspension by June 27, the path to playing time suddenly looks a lot more clear. Elly De La Cruz isn't going anywhere, surely, and neither is Jeimer Candelario, given his contract and recent play. Outside of those two, it doesn't seem too hard to project Marte for consistent playing time with Christian Encarnacion-Strand on the IL, Jonathan India struggling, and Nick Martini playing pretty much every day at DH. Marte hit .316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances in the majors last season and could be a legitimate five-category contributor once he's cleared. Don't forget about him. | | | | News and Notes | | Blake Snell was officially placed on the 15-day IL Monday with a left groin strain. It's an aggravation of an injury that previously cost him more than a month, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a similar timetable here, though the team hasn't confirmed that yet. | | Jordan Romano received an anti-inflammatory injection in his right elbow on Sunday. He'll be shut down for 3-5 days but the plan is to resume a throwing program later this week. | | Ranger Suarez will play catch Tuesday and throw a bullpen session Wednesday before the Phillies decide on the next step. Suarez is dealing with bruising and swelling in his left hand, but he could still start this weekend against the Mets in London. | | Max Scherzer threw a 25-pitch bullpen on Saturday and then gave a thumbs up when he arrived at the clubhouse Sunday. We'll see where he goes from here, but hopefully this gets him back on track as he has missed the entire season so far recovering from back surgery and then a thumb injury suffered during his first rehab assignment. | | Zach Eflin threw a 40-pitch bullpen on Sunday, his second in the past four days. The Rays have yet to confirm when Eflin will return, but it could be soon. | | CJ Abrams has missed three straight with a jammed left shoulder. | | Zac Gallen will begin a throwing progression Tuesday. He was diagnosed with a right hamstring strain last Friday. | | Merrill Kelly will also begin his throwing program Tuesday. He's been out since April 15 with a right shoulder strain. | | The Rays activated Josh Lowe from the IL and optioned Jonathan Aranda back to Triple-A on Monday. | | Nolan Jones began a new rehab assignment at Triple-A on Sunday. | | Masataka Yoshida could begin a minor-league rehab assignment later this week. He's been out since April 28 with a strained left thumb. He's a decent stash in a points league, but by no means a must-stash. | | Robert Gasser is dealing with left elbow soreness and is in the process of receiving a second opinion. | | Brandon Marsh was placed on the IL with a right hamstring strain. Manager Rob Thomson said it was "very mild". | | Old friend David Dahl was recalled and he had a great game! 2-3 with a home run. Dahl was crushing it in the minors this season, too, hitting .340 with 12 HR, 1.076 OPS, but I'm gonna need to see a lot more before I buy into a who hasn't had double-digit homers in a season in the majors since 2019. | | Luis Arraez was out of the lineup Monday with a neck/shoulder injury he suffered on a slide Sunday. | | Spencer Schwellenbach will make a second start, this one against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. | | John Means underwent successful Tommy John surgery on Monday, the second of his career. | | Monday's standouts | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays vs. BAL: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – We keep hoping Gausman is going to figure it out, and if you want a reason to be optimistic coming out of this one, at least his velocity was up. But only two whiffs on the splitter? Yeah, something's not right there, and Gausman has never had much upside if his splitter isn't dominating. His xwOBA allowed on the pitch is up from .236 to .298, while his whiff rate has fallen from 43.2% to 30.7%. Until he rediscovers his feel for that pitch, Gausman just isn't a must-start pitcher. I have faith he will, given his track record, but I certainly can't blame anyone for sitting him until he does. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals vs. NYM: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Given how good Gore has been for most of this season, I'm mostly willing to chalk this one up to a bad day. His velocity wasn't quite where it has been, but it wasn't down in such an alarming way that it seems worrisome, and let's not forget he had 10 strikeouts in 5.1 innings in his last outing against the Braves before this. Gore doesn't have such a long track record that I can write off multiple bad starts in a row, so let's hope he turns it around the next time out. | | Justin Verlander, Astros vs. STL: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I think we can count this as two steps forward, one step back, which still leaves Verlander ahead of where he was before his consecutive nine-strikeout outings leading up to this one. But the Cardinals are a very vulnerable matchup these days, so it was disappointing to see this step back. His curveball and changuep accounted for just one combined swing and miss on 32 pitches, which isn't going to work for Verlander, though he did at least continue to generate weak contact, allowing just an 85.5 mph average exit velocity on his 18 balls in play. Whatever else is going on with Verlander at any given time, that remains a standout skill, one that keeps his floor high. | | Andrew Abbott , Reds @COL: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – He just keeps getting away with it, this time in Coors Field? In fairness, Abbott has been a standout in suppressing quality of contact so far this season, allowing just a .316 xwOBA on contact – league average is .369, by the way. That's a tremendous number, and one that helps explain his 3.39 ERA despite a well below average strikeout rate. I'm inclined to be skeptical of the sudden gains in quality of contact being sustainable, so I'm going to need to see more games like this, where he had 13 swinging strikes on 96 pitches, before I start to believe. He remains a big sell-high candidate for me. | | Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers vs. DET: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – When Eovaldi is healthy, he remains a very good pitcher, and seeing as his fastball velocity was up nearly 2 mph Monday, I think we can say he's healthy. He leaned all the way in on his splitter in this one, throwing it 38% of the time as his most-used pitch and generating seven whiffs with it. We've seen Eovaldi long enough to know that he usually doesn't sustain his success for a whole season, but when he's going well, he can certainly look like a must-start pitcher, and he's going well right now. | | Matt Waldron , Padres @LAA: 6.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – Waldron's knuckleball didn't seem to be dancing quite as much in this one, leading to just three whiffs on 35 pitches. And yet, he still generated a bunch of weak contact with the pitch and was able to gut out a very good outing against a vulnerable opponent. Against a tougher matchup, Waldron might not have been able to get away with it, but hey, we'll take it. He has thrown consecutive quality starts and has a 1.84 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 29.1 innings over his past five starts now, and though knuckleballs can be fickle things, I think he's shown enough to be a viable Fantasy option at this point. | | Tylor Megill, Mets @WAS: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Well, that's a let down. After a breakout, nine-strikeout performance against the Dodgers the last time out, Megill really stumbled against what should have been a much easier opponent Monday. He velocity was down a bit across the board, but not so much that you would expect such a significant difference in performance. Megill just didn't have it Monday, but he also doesn't have any kind of track record to give him the benefit of the doubt, so it's not like we can write this one off as a fluke. If anything, the previous incredible start looks more like the fluke, and though I was willing to go out and add him on the strength of that just in case, I'm also perfectly willing to drop Waldron now after this kind of showing. | | Adam Ottavino, RP, Mets -- As Scott White wrote Tuesday morning , Reed Garrett is not as sure of a thing to be the Mets closer in Edwin Diaz's absence as we perhaps thought, and not just because he's struggled over the past couple of weeks. Adam Ottavino get the chance to close out Monday's game against the Nationals, though his own struggles continued as he gave up a couple of runs before being pulled for Jake Diekman. Diekman did get the save, ultimately, but I don't expect him to really factor in to the mix too often. I still think Garrett is the guy to have here, but unless he can get back on track, this whole situation might just be a mess until Diaz is healthy enough to pitch again. It's not like the Mets are winning a ton of games right now anyway. | | | | | | | | WNBA | | PGA Tour | Tonight, the Phoenix Mercury take on the Seattle Storm on CBS Sports Network. Watch LIVE at 10 PM ET!
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