By Michael Shepherd - March 2, 2023
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📷 Voters file through the Cross Insurance Center in Bangor to cast their ballots on Nov. 8, 2022. (BDN photo by Linda Coan O'Kresik)

Good morning from Augusta. The Legislature is in. Here are the House and Senate calendars and the committee agenda, including afternoon hearings on bills on electric rates and solar policy.

What we're watching today

Voter ID is one of the few big issues that Republicans are winning on with Mainers. It is a bad time for Republicans in Maine politics. We know this, and they know it as well, recently turning over the state party's leadership team after Gov. Janet Mills easily defeated former Gov. Paul LePage and Democrats won a third-straight sweep of the Legislature and our congressional districts.

Given this history, it may be no surprise that the minority party is also losing on key issues being debated this year. Mills' approval rating was at 58 percent and there was supermajority support for paid family and medical leave and the governor's proposal to allow abortions after 24 weeks if deemed medically necessary in a University of New Hampshire published last month.

There was one issue that Republicans can take some heart in. Nearly two-thirds of Maine voters backed requiring photo identification to vote. That coalition is driven by nearly universal support from Republican voters but 40 percent support overall from Democrats as well. Unenrolled voters are almost midway between those political poles at 65 percent support.

Voter ID is perhaps the top Republican priority across the country in this subject area, with 35 states having some form of this requirement. In Maine, which has some of the most liberal voting laws in the country, it is perennially proposed by conservatives. That is also the case this year, although a wall of Democratic opposition will likely put it in the graveyard.

In a rare move, Mills testified before a legislative committee last month against a voter ID proposal from Sen. Matt Pouliot, R-Augusta. She was backed up by other top Democrats, including Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and Attorney General Aaron Frey, as well as a host of other progressive interests from abortion rights and LGBTQ groups to environmental organizations.

Each of them said such a law would have disproportionate effects on certain groups of Mainers, including seniors, working people and minorities, while Pouliot tried to head off those arguments by proposing the state pay to give IDs to voters who lack them now and pitching the idea as a way to restore waning trust in elections.

The policy case around voter ID is muddy. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology roundup of scientific literature finds that disparate effects on certain populations have been confirmed in studies but that it is unclear if these laws depress turnout. Despite the popularity of voter ID, MIT found there is also little evidence that it increases voter confidence, which is one of Pouliot's major stated goals.

This issue is a good example of how Democratic thought leaders do not hew to their base on a major issue. It is also a preview of how voter ID would be virtually a sure bet to pass if Republicans ever regained control of Augusta, even though it was not that kind of an issue in the past. There are lots of valuable lessons from the conversation and the polling.

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News and notes

📷 Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, talks with protesters outside the Augusta Civic Center on Dec. 2, 2020. (BDN photo by Linda Coan O'Kresik)

📝 Here are the obstacles for a Republican-led contraception access bill.

◉ Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, is back with the same bill he filed in 2017, which aims to increase access to contraception by allowing pharmacists to prescribe pills and patches over the counter. It is co-sponsored mostly by Republicans, though Sen. Craig Hickman, D-Winthrop, is among the backers. It gets a 1 p.m. public hearing today. Watch it.

◉ The proposal sums up Brakey's unique stance on contraception and the related issue of abortion access. The two-time congressional candidate is anti-abortion, but he has said any limits should come with easier access to contraceptives.

◉ However, this bill did not even make it out of committee in 2017. Abortion-rights groups were skeptical about the measure excluding forms of birth control as well as the lack of agreement among other stakeholders, including pharmacists. It seems likely to face the same obstacles this time.

🔵 This big-name Democrat joined a Maine senator's Social Security group.

◉ At least one Democrat has joined the group of senators led by Angus King, I-Maine, and Bill Cassidy, R-Louisiana, who are looking to shore up Social Security's grim financial picture. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia, told Semafor he is part of the group working informally on bipartisan solutions.

◉ The group's work made the news this week because King and Cassidy may be proposing raising the retirement age from 67 to 70, a stance that would put the Democratic-aligned Maine senator to the right of Collins, who has said such a shift would be unfair to Mainers working physically demanding jobs.

◉ Kaine, who was the party's vice presidential nominee in 2016, told Semafor that he was excited about the King-Cassidy idea of a sovereign wealth fund but that he has not engaged on the retirement age issue.

◉ I'll be on a Facebook Live event with Gregg Lagerquist, who anchors the evening news for our partners at CBS News 13, to discuss King's Social Security stance at 7:45 p.m. Stream it on our page.

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What we're reading

🏞️ Tainted sludge is building up at Maine plants and threatening rivers.

💸 Maine Veterans Homes says it needs millions more to close a budget gap, Maine Public reports.

💼 A defense expert says a Brewer baby died of COVID-19, not at the hands of his father.

🛍 Two potential local buyers are interested in a Presque Isle mall.

👞 The longtime manager of an iconic Belfast shoe store is retiring. Here's your soundtrack.

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