De'Von Achane. What the hell?! Let's start here.

(Rankings are at the bottom if you are here strictly on business. Today's write-up is a bit longer than most.)

After shattering every rushing efficiency record known to man as a rookie, Achane is averaging 3.1 yards per carry in Year 2. It's not just his baseline statistics, the underlying stuff is ghastly too. D'Andre Swift is the only other RB (minimum 10 attempts per game) who is averaging fewer than two yards after contact per rush through one month of football. Achane's avoided tackle rate is down from 30% as a rookie to 16.4% in Year 2. Again, I'll ask, "what the hell?!?"

This probably is not helping.

I've been curious about which coaches are creating light boxes for their running backs to rush against and how much it matters for Fantasy purposes, so I did a bit of digging. What I found was interesting. Well, actually, it wasn't that interesting, which is interesting to me -- I really thought it would be interesting! Does anything that I do even matter? Probably. But sometimes, probably not, and that's okay. The results might not always matter. As long as I don't become attached the results mattering, I think that thinking remains a good practice. When we run into overthinking, that's probably problematic.

Don't lose the plot, as I clearly have with Kyle Pitts.

Even when the results of digging into something is finding little or no significance, I wonder if the process of trying at all -- especially if there's capacity to reflect on that effort -- might matter! That's where I arrived with the research that I did into rushing vs. light boxes. If I was attached to this data being "important," then I might have forced that conclusion (incorrectly), or I might have let myself become frustrated at "wasted" effort. I belabor this point because I believe it's important as we get into some hyper-specific analysis together in this space. Don't lose the plot. If you're worried about this information inundating you or being a waste of your time, maybe don't! That doesn't seem to be worth it. If you want to think about Achane's 2024 circumstances on a deeper level, and if you trust yourself to not overreact to what you might learn, that's dope. Let's do it.

Light boxes are actually not more efficient for Fantasy than other runs.

This surprised me at first, but it's actually intuitive -- light boxes rarely occur in the red zone.

If filtering to only include runs coming outside of the red zone: Running backs averaged 4.9 yards per rush and 0.50 PPR points per rush against light boxes. On all other runs outside of the red zone, the averages were 4.2 and 0.47.

Let this serve as another reminder that rush attempts that occur outside of the red zone really do not matter much if you are playing in a PPR league. You want targets, you want red zone opportunities. At the end of the day, it is a simple game that we play.

Per the work of the great Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com

"A target has been worth 2.74 times as much as a carry in PPR leagues. (A reception is worth even more than that.) Even in standard leagues, a target has been worth 1.36 times as much as a carry."

Rushing efficiency is fun. It really doesn't matter much for Fantasy. Two of the top-five RBs in PPR points in 2023 averaged 3.6 and 3.8 yards per rush. Four of the five had 70 targets. The one who didn't had 18 rushing TDs. We know what we're chasing when it comes to Fantasy RB's.

Don't lose the plot. Advanced rushing analysis is fun. And it can be important, especially in instances where touch volume ambiguity exists in the backfield. It's important to know how RBs fit their blocking scheme and how effective they are at avoiding tackles and all of that, but at the end of the day, the winning formula is simple. We're looking for targets and TDs. Don't ever let the additional context distract you from that fact.

Facing fewer light boxes has likely contributed to Achane's rushing efficiency dip. It also probably does not really matter at all for his Fantasy outlook. He would have to be producing the type of efficiency that he was last year to matter for Fantasy with Miami's offense producing little to no trips to the red zone each week. I do have one final note on Achane's rushing efficiency change, but I'm going to save that for tomorrow's 'In The Lab' installment. For now, know that his Fantasy value is almost entirely predicated on targets. And even those have come down with the offense unable to string together any successful drives and produce play volume. For the time being, Achane is an extremely risky Fantasy player.

Alright, before getting into the rest of today's analysis, please let me cover a few bases and catch you up on the work that I've been doing:

Some film cut-ups that you might like:

• Every Stefon Diggs target
• A glimpse at Kyler Murray's bizarre Week 4 (thread)
• Brian Thomas Jr.'s awesome Week 4 footage
• All 10 of Xavier Legette's Week 4 targets
• Tony Pollard's impressive Week 4 yardage after contact creation
• Every Jaxon Smith-Njigba target from Week 4
• Amari Cooper prayer yards

Some Twitter threads that you might like:

• I created a thread of QB film cut-ups where every throw of 15+ air yards (when not facing pressure) was included for almost every quarterback. If you wanna watch that, it's sorted by the highest off-target rate (Caleb Williams) on these passes to the lowest (Geno Smith!).
• RB thread examining which backs have created the most/least yards after initial contact
• WR thread providing historical context on the rookie receiver class as well as an examination of which receivers have seen an increase/decrease to their target rates from 2023 to 2024.

If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here!

Today, I had the chance to pick the brain of ESPN Analytics guru Seth Walder. We talked about ESPN's Open Scores for wide receivers and tight ends! We talked about pre-snap motion and motion at the snap! We talked about offensive and defensive line win rates! It was a fun and interesting conversation, and I'm quite excited about it, if you couldn't tell.

I do recommend that you listen to the latest Beyond the Box Score podcast that I recorded with Dan Schneier of FFT and Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics when you have the time!  You can find the most-recent BtBS episode here.

We have some scary pass rushers in the NFL right now and several shaky offensive lines. If the historically low passing output through two weeks didn't make that clear, I think that pressure problems may be a theme in 2024 -- early in the season, at least. Below, you'll find the pass rushers who have caused the most mayhem individually.

Alright, let's talk ESPN win rates. Again, you can hear the discussion that Dan and I had with Seth Walder of EPSN Analytics about win rates and other data here!

I was really surprised to see some of the teams included in the bottom 10! The Chargers had a really tough time without the two starting tackles in Week 4 vs. Kansas City. Their pressure rate has dropped as the year has gone on. Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis have performed really well when it comes to pressures allowed, though.

I speculated on what might be behind the occasional discrepancy between pressure rates and win rates:

It's also worth noting that schedule plays a big part in any four-game sample size statistic. The Chargers allowed high pressure rates vs. the Chiefs (52%), Steelers (35%), and Raiders (32%), but Justin Herbert was pressured on only 23% of dropbacks vs. Carolina. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have faced three defenses that rank top-10 in ESPN's pass rush win rate, including the first-ranked Denver Broncos.

Does Tampa's pass block win rate mean that we should view the Bucs as a bottom-10 pass protection team? Not necessarily. The Bucs won't face a top-10 pass rush every week, starting with a Week 5 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. 

Make what you will of these rankings! As always, context is important! Let's look forward to Week 5.

Jayden still might just go ahead and shred.

The Browns are much more aggressive than Arizona. The Cardinals sort of sit back and let the opposing offense dictate the outcome. Cleveland takes the fight to their opposition. The Browns rank third in blitz rate and sixth in pressure rate. Only the Broncos (2.28 seconds) have a lower opposing time to pressure (2.29).

Fine by Kliff! Kingsbury has Daniels getting the ball out quick! At least, that's what he wants. Daniels often takes matters into his own hands. When in the pocket, Daniels has an average time to throw of 2.39 seconds. That's below the league average (2.47) on 'in pocket' throws. Only six quarterbacks have a lower rate, and none of the league's top scramblers have a lower rate. Overall, Daniels has a 3.09 average time to throw, which is one of the highest. He extends plays, often. Daniels has the seventh-highest average time to throw when blitzed (2.87), even though he has the third highest rate of throws vs. the blitz that came in under 2.5 seconds. Kliff wants him to get it out quick, especially vs. the blitz, and Daniels will execute the game plan. He also might just improvise, break a blitzer's ankles, and create a huge play.

It's going to be extremely interesting to see how Daniels processes this Browns pass rush and navigates the pocket. The Giants (his Week 2 opponent) rank sixth in time to pressure, but the other three teams that Daniels has faced rank 24th, 26th, and 30th.

Andy Dalton's first start came against the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks fifth in ESPN's pass rush win rate. And digging into the specifics of that matchup provides an excellent use case for the importance of time to throw data.

Dalton had a league-low pressure rate against the Raiders. How can they be top-five in pass rush win rate, then?! Analytics are so fake!

Hey. Take it easy! Dalton's average time to throw in that game was 2.08 seconds. That's the lowest of any QB in any game this season and the second-lowest since the start of 2023.

The NFL average time to throw in 2024 is 2.85 seconds. On dropbacks where Dalton took 2.5+ seconds to throw against the Raiders, his pressure rate was 40%. Interesting! It really feels like Dalton's ability to execute Dave Canales' offensive design with quick decisiveness is what has allowed Carolina to succeed.

In Week 5, Dalton faces a Chicago Bears defense ranked second in ESPN's pass rush win rate. Will Chicago have more success in getting to Dalton before the ball comes out? Nothing that I've found indicates so. The Raiders have a faster time to pressure. Chicago's probably tougher in the secondary, so maybe open targets won't be as successful as quickly presenting themselves to Dalton. We have seen route technician types still able to win against this defense (Cooper Kupp in Week 1 and Chris Godwin in Week 2), so Diontae Johnson is still probably a fine start. It's worth at least pointing out that the third-worst team in ESPN's pass-block win rate is facing the third-best team in pass rush win rate, but I feel cautiously optimistic that Dalton will again be able to get the ball out quick and navigate this tough matchup.

Seemingly week, I've speculated on if fill in the blank QB might be the one to crack the code against Brian Flores. So far, none have done so. Jordan Love at least found some Fantasy success in Week 4.

I wonder if maybe the grizzled vet is the one to stare down the blitz-packages and come out the other side. The Flores buzzsaw has chewed every other QB and spit them out a more humble man, but we're talking about a man who willingly immerses himself in darkness for days on end. Can Rodgers be any more humble?! I don't know the man, and I do know that far too many of you might be taking me seriously, so I'll end the facade. Rodgers will probably suck in this spot. The Jets have the sixth-lowest implied team total (19 points) in Week 5.

But, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite, no QB has been less bothered by "stunts " than Rodgers. Minnesota is one of just four defenses that has used 10+ stunts per game. Rodgers has a league-low off-target rate on stunt plays and ranks sixth in completion percentage over expectations vs. stunts. Rodgers has fed 31% of targets to Garrett Wilson vs. stunts. Wilson also has a 30% target share when Rodgers has been blitzed, and the Vikings have the league's highest blitz rate. Maybe this is the game that Wilson gets going! The Vikings gave up big games to both Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks in Week 4, and we've seen catch-and-run players and slot weapons find success vs. this defense. Stefon Diggs led the Texans with 12 targets and 94 receiving yards vs. Minnesota. Deebo Samuel caught 8 of 10 targets for 110 yards vs. Minnesota. With Mike Williams playing a larger role, Wilson's slot rate has been +30% in each of the past two games. And he has been vocal about his route concepts, maybe we see more layup targets designed to get the ball quickly out of Rodgers' hands and into Wilson's against the Vikings.

It's a small sample size, but once again, Rashid Shaheed is popping as a potential fit for this Week 5 matchup.

When Carr has been blitzed, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara have been the top targets. Dating back to last year, Kamara has clearly been Carr's top target when pressured/blitzed. The change in offensive philosophy from 2023 to 2024 is the most drastic of any team in the NFL, so I'm not sure how much the 2023 data is worth. The Chiefs blitz at the eighth-highest rate.

Between Steve Spagnuolo's timely blitzing and Chris Jones' inevitable pocket collapsing presence, the Chiefs have the fourth-fastest time to pressure. That's per the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I'm actually just finding today for the first time another level of info available to us in the Data Suite. I didn't know that they had time to pressure and stunt info and disguised coverage data. It's a goldmine! Even I haven't had the time to tap into it fully!

Coming from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak loves to dial up deep play action passes. He also has built in plenty of quick throws to make sure not to set his offense behind the eight-ball too often. When the ball has left Carr's hand in 2.5 seconds or less, it has almost exclusively been to Kamara, Shaheed, or Olave. It's interesting to me that Shaheed's average depth of target (4.6 yards) is notably lower than Olave's (6.8 yards) in such instances. I wonder if Olave's quick targets are a result of him quickly winning his matchup while Shaheed's are more-likely to be a result of a designed quick target. If so, I'd think that Shaheed might be the one more-likely to see a target boost vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City's average time to pressure is 2.38 seconds, by the way!

Carr has been one of the league's most sensitive-to-pressure passers, historically, so I am a bit worried about him imploding and ruining our need for Shaheed. Hopefully he can get the ball out quickly and avoid too many third-and-long situations where Spags gets to pin his ears back and wreak havoc vs. what can be a leaky line.

Tier 1 -- Locked-in

QB1 - Lamar Jackson
QB2 - Josh Allen
QB3 - Jayden Daniels
QB4 - Jordan Love
QB6 - Kyler Murray

Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk

QB5 - Anthony Richardson (Q)
QB8 - Justin Fields

Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers

QB7 - Brock Purdy
QB9 - Geno Smith
QB10 - C.J. Stroud
QB11 - Joe Burrow
QB12 - Baker Mayfield
QB13 - Matthew Stafford
QB16 - Patrick Mahomes
(This is about the range that Joe Flacco would sit if starting)
QB17 - Kirk Cousins
QB20 - Sam Darnold

Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players

QB14 - Deshaun Watson
QB15 - Trevor Lawrence
QB18 - Dak Prescott
QB19 - Caleb Williams
QB21 - Aaron Rodgers
QB22 - Daniel Jones
QB23 - Derek Carr
QB24 - Andy Dalton
QB25 - Bo Nix
QB26 - Jacoby Brissett
QB27 - Tyler Huntley
QB28 - Gardner Minshew

Tier 1 -- Locked-in

RB1 - Jordan Mason
RB2 - Alvin Kamara
RB3 - Derrick Henry
RB4 - Kyren Williams
RB5 - Bijan Robinson
RB6 - Breece Hall
RB7 - Josh Jacobs
RB8 - Kenneth Walker
RB9 - Aaron Jones
RB10 - James Cook
RB11 - James Conner
RB12 - Brian Robinson Jr.
RB16 - Joe Mixon (Q)
RB16 - Travis Etienne (Q)

Tier 2 -- Role checks out, but can we trust the offensive environment?

RB13 - Chuba Hubbard
RB14 - De'Von Achane
RB15 - D'Andre Swift
RB18 - Najee Harris
RB19 - Jerome Ford
RB20 - Devin Singletary

Tier 5 -- I have several concerns

RB22 - Zack Moss
RB23 - Kareem Hunt
RB24 - Rachaad White

Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously

RB21 - Rhamondre Stevenson (a possible benching in the winds? Surely not! Bench Mondre? In this economy?!)
RB25 - Bucky Irving
RB27 - Trey Sermon
RB28 - Chase Brown
RB29 - Tank Bigsby
RB30 - Roschon Johnson
RB32 - Braelon Allen

Tier 7 -- Desperation plays

RB26 - Javonte Williams
RB31 - Rico Dowdle
RB33 - Justice Hill
RB35 - Tyler Allgeier
RB36 - Zach Charbonnet
RB37 - Zamir White
RB38 - Samaje Perine
RB39 - Jaleel McLaughlin
RB40 - Emanuel Wilson

Tier 1 -- Locked-in

WR1 - CeeDee Lamb
WR2 - Nico Collins
WR3 - Malik Nabers (Q)
WR4 - Ja'Marr Chase
WR5 - Justin Jefferson
WR6 - Deebo Samuel
WR7 - Drake London
WR8 - Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR9 - Jayden Reed
WR10 - DK Metcalf
WR11 - Chris Godwin
WR12 - Stefon Diggs
WR13 - Brian Thomas Jr.

One of the biggest surprises from digging into the ESPN Open Score data in preparation for our discussion with Seth Walder was finding Stef Diggs at WR2. As I discussed in the podcast (this should take you to the exact moment), ESPN's Open Score tends to favor perimeter man coverage beaters over slot-bound zone coverage winners. It is the year 2024, and Diggs is being used as the latter. That made the WR2 placement even more surprising to me.

Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big score

WR14 - Mike Evans
WR18 - Dontayvion Wicks
WR21 - Brandon Aiyuk
WR22 - George Pickens
WR23 - Terry McLaurin

Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2

WR15 - Diontae Johnson
WR16 - Chris Olave
WR17 - Garrett Wilson
WR19 - Rashid Shaheed
WR20 - D.J. Moore
WR34 - Tee Higgins

Tier 4 -- Super solid projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential)

WR24 - Zay Flowers
WR27 - Christian Kirk
WR28 - Khalil Shakir (Q)
WR31 - Wan'Dale Robinson
WR35 - Michael Pittman (would rise to WR24 if Flacco starts)

Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun!

WR25 - Amari Cooper
WR26 - Courtland Sutton
WR29 - Jerry Jeudy
WR30 - Darnell Mooney
WR32 - Xavier Worthy
WR36 - Keenan Allen
WR38 - Rome Odunze
WR39 - Josh Downs (WR28 if Flacco starts)
WR40 - Tutu Atwell
WR41 - Xavier Legette
WR42 - Jordan Whittington
WR43 - Romeo Doubs
WR45 - Jauan Jennings
WR49 - Tank Dell (Q)

Tier 6 -- Desperation plays

WR33 - Tyreek Hill
WR37 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR44 - Jaylen Waddle
WR46 - Jakobi Meyers (love my boy Jakobi, but pulling the Patrick Surtain card has been a death sentence thus far)
WR47 - Demarcus Robinson
WR48 - Jordan Addison
WR50 - Tyler Lockett
WR51 - Tre Tucker
WR52 - Allen Lazard
WR53 - Michael Wilson
WR54 - Mike Williams
WR55 - Keon Coleman
WR56 - Greg Dortch
WR57 - Ja'Lynn Polk
WR58 - Alec Pierce
WR59 - Jalen Tolbert
WR60 - Ray-Ray McCloud

Tier 1 -- Locked-in

TE1 - Travis Kelce
TE2 - Trey McBride
TE3 - Brock Bowers
TE4 - George Kittle
TE5 - Jake Ferguson
TE6 - Cole Kmet
TE7 - Tucker Kraft
TE8 - David Njoku (Q)
TE9 - Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up

TE10 - Pat Freiermuth
TE11 - Evan Engram (Q)
TE12 - Isaiah Likely
TE14 - Taysom Hill (Q)

Tier 3 -- Streamers

TE14 - Colby Parkinson
TE15 - Zach Ertz
TE16 - Dalton Schultz
TE17 - Hunter Henry
TE20 - Tyler Conklin
TE21 - Juwan Johnson
TE22 - Noah Fant
TE23 - Cade Otton
TE24 - Mike Gesicki
TE25 - Erick All Jr.

Tier 4 -- You broke my heart

TE18 - Mark Andrews
ET19 - Kyle Pitts

If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan!