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| Friday, July 18, 2025 |
| Did you enjoy the break? Well, it's over, and today, the games are back. Before you do anything else, head here to see Scott White's matchup advice for the upcoming week, whether you're playing just this weekend or the extended double week including this week and next week. We'll be back on Monday morning to recap everything you need to know from this weekend's action as we kick off the sprint to the end of the Fantasy, but before we do that, let's take one more look ahead at what we can expect, with one bold prediction for every team in the majors in the second half: |
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| Second half bold predictions |
| Angels - They won't trade Kenley Jansen at the deadline |
| They should, of course, which would open Reid Detmers up to potentially be an impact closer for Fantasy. But this is the Angels, the most "penny-wise, pound-foolish" team in baseball, who never sell when they should, and often buy when they shouldn't. There's something to be said for going for it when other teams won't, but the Angels have a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs.com , and should be looking to move any piece without long-term value for them. Whether they will is another story. |
| Astros - Brice Matthews has 10 homers and 10 steals in the second half |
| The Astros called Matthews up just before the break, but it's not clear he's going to stick around with Jeremy Pena working his way back from a fractured rib. I'm hoping they do, because he's a pretty interesting talent – he has 25 homers and 57 steals in 152 games since the start of the 2024 season across three levels of the minors. There's some swing and miss here, perhaps too much for him to ever be a major-league starter, but I'd like to see him get at least as much of a chance as Brendan Rodgers got. |
| Athletics - Nick Kurtz finishes as a top-five 1B |
| Currently, Kurtz is the No. 19 first baseman in Roto leagues, not bad for ranking 40th at the position in plate appearances. Since his return from the IL in early June, Kurtz is hitting .268/.349/.652 with 12 homers in 127 plate appearances – something like a 60-homer pace for a full season. He won't do that, but he might just be a 40-homer guy already, and that's enough to make him a borderline elite Fantasy option even with a 33.1% strikeout rate. If he cuts that strikeout rate? He might be a top-25 hitter. |
| Blue Jays - They win the AL East |
| They've got the surging Red Sox on their heels, and they sit two games back of the Yankees, so I'm not sure how bold this one is. But the Blue Jays suddenly look like one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and I don't think we've even seen close to the best-case scenario from Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero, or Addison Barger. If they can keep Max Scherzer on the mound, the Jays could really take off. |
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| Braves - Ronald Acuna is the No. 1 player in the second half |
| In roughly two months since he made his season debut, Acuna ranks 12th in Roto scoring, so he'll need to pick up the pace a bit, and I think it mostly comes down to steals. Acuna still looks like one of the best hitters in baseball, but he's only running at around a 15-steal pace right now, which probably isn't enough to get it done when Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh are on 60-homer paces. Acuna's sprint speed is actually identical to the 2023 season, so while nobody should expect anything like a 73-pace again, if he can be more like a 30-steal guy, I think there's a path to him being the best hitter in Fantasy again. |
| Brewers - Jackson Chourio hits .300 in the second half |
| He's only hitting .264 right now and has a .258 xBA, so I think this one counts as bold, even if Chourio already seems to be following last year's path of getting significantly better as the season goes on. It'd be nice if his underlying skills had taken a step forward in his second season, and I do think it raises some questions about how likely Chourio is to become the first-round pick we all expected him to be entering the season. But this one is honestly just a bet on the talent we've already seen from Chourio, albeit in flashes. |
| Cardinals - They finally trade Nolan Arenado |
| To whom? I think the Yankees are the likeliest contender, with the financial ability to take on his deal and an obvious need at third base after moving Jazz Chisholm back to second base for good. I could also see the Cubs taking the plunge, knowing how pot-committed they are to contending this season. Given how poorly the Isaac Paredes trade went for them last summer, the Cubs might be rightly gunshy about betting on another pull-heavy, raw-power-light "slugger," though in this case, Statcast's expected HR stat suggests Arenado would actually have six more homers this season playing at Wrigley Field than in St. Louis, so it could work out. |
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| Cubs - Pete Crow-Armstrong is their third-best outfielder |
| Or, at least, third-best outfield-eligible player. I suppose I could see Ian Happ outperforming Crow-Armstrong if the latter really collapses. But a more realistic outcome is he takes a mild step back while Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki continue their excellent seasons and surpass the younger guy. If PCA actually is their fourth-best outfielder, then something either went really wrong for PCA or the Cubs are going to be an unstoppable juggernaut in the second half. |
| Diamondbacks - Jordan Lawler is a top-12 SS |
| The problem remains the same as it was when they briefly called him up earlier in the season: There just isn't anywhere for Lawler to play. There's also the added wrinkle of Lawler dealing with a hamstring injury in Triple-A, yet another injury for a guy who has dealt with plenty of them. But with the trade deadline looming, the Diamondbacks seem likely to move at least one of Eugenio Suarez or Josh Naylor , and that should finally open up a spot for Lawlar once he's past this latest malady. There is surely some prospect fatigue settling in for Lawler, but he's still just 22 and is a career .334/.420/.590 hitter at Triple-A, so don't hold that against him. |
| Dodgers - Dustin May isn't worth rostering by September |
| When going over busts for the second half of the season yesterday, I highlighted Kris Bubic, Drew Rasmussen, and Clay Holmes as pitchers who could find their workloads limited down the stretch, and May should be included in that discussion, too. He's already up to 94.1 innings on the season, or only five fewer than he threw in 2024, 2023, and 2022 combined. May did get up to 130-plus in consecutive seasons at one point, but that was back in 2017 and 2018. But he threw just 178 combined between 2020 and 2024, so I think they're going to have to pull back at some point. Tyler Glasnow is back from the IL, Blake Snell had his first rehab assignment in recent days, and Shohei Ohtani is going to continue to be stretched out, so the Dodgers should have the depth to limit May's usage, and I suspect they will. |
| Giants - Rafael Devers has a .900-plus OPS |
| Devers has had a rough go of things since being traded to the Giants, hitting just .202/.330/.326. To a certain extent, that's natural – he made a cross-country move to a new organization for the first time ever, and he's done so while dealing with a nagging back injury. I'm hoping the All-Star break gave him a bit of time for some extra rest and treatment, and he can come back ready to hit more like the guy he was in Boston – remember, even with that horrible start to the season, Devers had a .905 OPS when he was traded. |
| Guardians - They trade Emmanuel Clase |
| The Guardians are constantly trying to balance competing with keeping payrolls low enough to maximize profits, but the chances of actually making a playoff run right now are pretty slim. FanGraphs.com gives them a 10.6% chance of making the playoffs. Maybe they'll go on a run over the next few weeks and make this one look silly, but if not, moving Clase could net them multiple big-time prospects without hurting their bullpen too much – Cade Smith is more than capable of being a lights-out closer, and Hunter Gaddis gives them another excellent high-leverage reliever. Cade Smith could be a top-five closer in Fantasy if this happens. |
| Mariners - Logan Gilbert is a top-five starting pitcher |
| There's a clear top-four at the SP position, with Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Zack Wheeler , and Garrett Crochet clearly differentiating themselves from the rest of the pack. I think Gilbert isn't far off. He's been a bit off his game since coming back from an elbow injury, but he's also still sporting the highest strikeout rate of his career at 35.3%, thanks to further improvement from both his four-seamer and especially his splitter. The results haven't shown it, but Gilbert might have taken another step forward this season, and I think he'll show it in the second half. |
| Marlins - Eury Perez is a top-10 starting pitcher |
| It already started when the calendar flipped to July. Perez understandably needed some time to get his sea legs after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he has 21 strikeouts to just one walk while allowing one run in 18 innings of work since the start of July. And he's done it without really having the feel for his curveball, sweeper, or changeup. As he continues to get more comfortable with the full arsenal, Perez could take off like a rocket. And here's the part where I remind you that despite making his debut more than two years ago, Perez is still just 22 years old – he's six months younger than Bubba Chandler and just five days older than Andrew Painter, who we're still waiting to make their MLB debuts. |
| Mets - Clay Holmes isn't worth rostering by August |
| I went over the case in my Second-half Busts here, but it's not just about workload concerns. I think Holmes might be droppable even if the Mets don't limit his workload in the second half. He's already started to regress after a hot start, with 18 walks and 18 strikeouts in 30 innings in his past six starts, while failing to go six innings in any of those starts. His 4.19 xERA and below-average strikeout rate suggest Holmes might just be a streamer at best already. |
| Nationals - Mike Soroka is a top-30 SP |
| I made the case for Soroka as a second-half breakout candidate earlier this week, but it comes down to this: He gets a lot of strikeouts, he has good command, and he doesn't get hit as hard as you might think if you just look at his ERA. If his 3.21 expected ERA is at all real, Soroka will clear this bar fairly easily. |
| Orioles - Jordan Westburg is a top-five 2B |
| Westburg hasn't taken the step forward we hoped for, and yet, he's still on pace for 34 homers. His batting average is just .251, and he hasn't run much, which is certainly disappointing, but I think the fact that he's been beat up pretty much all season could help explain that. His underlying numbers are stronger than his surface-level ones, and all of the excellent athletic markers are still here, so this remains a talent we want to bet on. |
| Padres - Fernando Tatis is a top-five hitter |
| Tatis is going on three years of underperforming his underlying metrics, which is long enough to suspect there could be something going on there. His home park certainly doesn't help, nor does his tendency to drive the ball to the power alleys, where the ball has to travel further to go over the fence. That's not ideal, but we're still talking about a premium athlete on a near-40-steal pace who also ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected wOBA. If things start to click more consistently for Tatis, who, I'll remind you, has a .993 OPS in July, there's no question we're talking about one of the five or so best players in the league. |
| Phillies - Zack Wheeler finally wins a Cy Young |
| Wheeler has taken yet another step forward, and with reports coming out that the Pirates will look to limit Paul Skenes' workload in the second half, the runway is clear for Wheeler to finally take that trophy home. That'll do a lot for what is eventually going to be a pretty contentious Hall of Fame debate. |
| Pirates - They're even more hopeless in the second half |
| One of my bold predictions from before the season was that the Pirates would manage to be worse than in 2024, and we're doubling down. And frankly, they deserve it – they've responded to the gift of having Paul Skenes on a minimum salary by not even trying to win games these past two seasons. Their top prospect is sitting in Triple-A despite looking MLB-ready months ago, and they're reportedly looking to trade Mitch Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke'Bryan Hayes, the rare competent veterans on this roster. If you're not going to try to win as many games as possible when you have Skenes, what's the point of even being an MLB team? The Pirates are a disgrace. |
| Rangers - Wyatt Langford is a top-10 OF |
| I was a bit more skeptical about the aggressive projections some were putting on Langford before the season, but even I can see that three different oblique injuries have made it nearly impossible for him to have even a chance of breaking out like we hoped he would. The plus tools are still evident, though, and Langford is hitting .324/.425/.529 with two homers and four steals in nine games since coming off the IL, so I'm hoping for a healthy and productive second half for Langford. I toyed with making this bold prediction, "The Rangers win the AL West," because I think they're the most "due" team in baseball, but that 8.5-game deficit is probably too much to overcome. But don't be surprised if they force their way into the Wild Card conversation – they open the second half 3.5 games back. |
| Rays - Chandler Simpson finishes with the most steals in MLB |
| Is this one even that bold? Despite playing just 53 games so far, he's only five off the MLB lead. I suppose there's always the risk that he gets sent back down to Triple-A if his defense remains an issue, but if he's good enough to stay in the lineup on even a semi-regular basis, he's going to run away with this one. What's the ceiling here? He needs 35 to get to 60, and he averaged nearly one every two games in the first half. Could he get to 70? It's unlikely, but with his skill set and the green light he clearly already has, it's not impossible. |
| Red Sox - Roman Anthony hits 15 second-half homers |
| With just two in his first 31 games, I sure hope this one's bold enough for you. Anthony was also a second-half breakout pick for me, and the obvious power potential here is the primary reason why: His 93.8 mph average exit velocity would be tied for the seventh-best mark among qualifiers if he had enough plate appearances, and if you just sort by line drives and flyballs, he jumped to fifth, just head of Aaron Judge, if you'd believe it. Anthony needs to be more aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone, and he needs to tune his swing to hit the ball in the air more often to live up to his potential, but the upside here is clear. He could be one of the very best hitters in baseball very soon. |
| Reds - Chase Burns is better than Jacob Misiorowski the rest of the way |
| This one only seems bold because Misiorowski has been better in their first month in the majors. Burns was considered a significantly better prospect coming into the season, and while Misiorowski's performance in the minors certainly helped his stock, so did Burns'; he had a 1.77 ERA and 36.8% strikeout rate! Burns has a worse home park and supporting cast surrounding him than Misiorowski does, which is going to hold him back, but I also think there's more downside risk for Misiorowski as a pitcher because of his control issues. I think both are awesome and could be top-30 pitchers for 2026, but I still think Burns is the better pitcher. |
| Rockies - Tyler Freeman leads the league in batting average in the second half |
| If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, Freeman would be tied for fourth in the majors in average, so maybe this one isn't that bold, though I bet even the most knowledgeable among you would have trouble naming Freeman if I asked you for the top five in batting average in the first half. But he's been a revelation in Colorado, taking advantage of Coors Field to lower his already low strikeout rate down to 9.0% while improving his quality of contact metrics pretty much across the board. Freeman is probably always going to have a ceiling as a hitter because he won't hit for much power, but he looks well equipped to run elite batting averages and steal a bunch of bases, and he could be a better version of Jacob Wilson in the second half. |
| Royals - Jac Caglianone is a must-start outfielder |
| With a .460 OPS in his first 35 games, Caglianone certainly hasn't been anything close to must must-start yet. But the biggest issue we expected him to have hasn't actually shown up yet – his strikeout rate of 21.7% is right around league average, not exactly what you would expect from a young slugger struggling out of the gate. That's not to say there aren't any issues with Cags' approach, of course, as he does have a pretty massive 39% chase rate. But when he swings, he tends to make contact, especially in the zone, where he's running a very solid 84.3% contact rate. And, as expected, he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard, though not quite as often as we'd like. That's the next step. The tools are here, and the approach is more polished than expected. Caglianone isn't far from making a big impact. I think he'll get there. |
| Tigers - Tarik Skubal finishes the season as the MLB leader in W, ERA, WHIP, and K |
| This one isn't that bold, really. Since the start of 2024, Skubal leads the majors in all three categories already. He's the best pitcher in the world right now, and he seems to be only getting better, and he's doing this with his slider whiff rate actually dropping by more than 10 percentage points from last season. Could he get better? He could get better. |
| Twins - Byron Buxton is third in AL MVP voting |
| Buxton has always had the skills to be this kind of player. Since 2019, he's averaging 6.6 WAR per 162 games, according to Baseball-Reference.com, and that's while dealing with all those injuries over the years. Buxton has been locked in all season, and while the threat of injury is ever present here, he's gotta stay healthy for most of a season at some point, right? Given how good he's been so far, I sure hope so, and the fact that he's already stolen 17 bases – his most since 2017! – suggests he's feeling better than ever. Maybe this is the year. Please. |
| White Sox - Luis Robert is finally traded |
| Is this one bold? If so, it's only because it's kind of hard to imagine any team actually valuing Robert that highly at this point. Once a legit All-Star-caliber player, Robert has actually taken a pretty sizable step back from last season's career-worst production, which I didn't actually think was possible. Some savvy team will note that Robert is still hitting the ball plenty hard, with a higher barrel rate than last season and a higher max exit velo than either of the previous two, and make the bet that a change of scenery can still unlock some upside. I'm not sure I agree with them, but I hope we get to see him get the chance, at least. |
| Yankees - Cam Schlittler leads the team in strikeouts |
| I thought about making the bull case for Jasson Dominguez , who looks like he's starting to figure it out a little bit, but his struggles from the right side of the plate are still holding him back a bit. So I'll go with Schlittler, who showcased elite velocity and good movement on his fastball, plus a slider that should miss plenty of bats in his MLB debut. He isn't a perfect pitching prospect, but Schlittler impressed on his way to the majors this season, striking out a ton of hitters at the two highest levels of the minors while keeping the ball in the yard well enough. It's a tough home park, but Schlittler looks like he can miss enough bats to mitigate that, and he could provide a nice boost for the Yankees down the stretch. |
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