Happy Monday! Markets turned red overnight to continue last week’s sell-off. Today we’re covering how traders are behaving compared to what policymakers are saying, jobs data and more. First time reading? Join 190,000 self-directed investors gaining an edge every morning. Sign up here. 

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Market jitters rising

The stock market has a long history of going up and to the right. You’d be correct to say most investors are optimistic, most of the time. 

But right now traders are taking bets off the table — even as market-moving figures across the White House and Federal Reserve express a cool confidence. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday reiterated that the US economy is in a “good place,” despite heightened uncertainty.

“As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,” Powell said at the Monetary Policy Forum. “We do not need to be in a hurry and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

President Trump, for his part, has said on many occasions his team is ushering in a new economic golden era for the US. He’s not shy about reminding everyone tariffs are his tool of choice to accomplish that mission. 

In a Sunday interview with Fox News, the president shrugged off concerns again of a potential economic slowdown and said the long-term outlook remains strong.

“There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big,” Trump said. “It takes a little time.”

Investors for now don’t seem to see any boom times on the horizon.

The SPX ( ▲ 0.55% ) is down 1.68% to start the year and its post-election day gains have evaporated. Each of the major US stock benchmarks are coming off their worst week in months, the Magnificent Seven trade looks deflated and the Nasdaq Composite has entered correction territory. 

Meanwhile, other developed countries’ stock markets are squarely in the green.

Global stocks are outpacing the US by a comfortable margin, undermining Trump’s America-first agenda.

Much of that weakness can be chalked up to the White House’s on-again, off-again messaging on tariffs. Fortunately, the economic data has remained relatively steady. 

That said, the solid February jobs data, released Friday, barely seemed to register for markets.

It wasn’t until Powell’s afternoon reassurance that US stocks ticked higher. 

In a note Friday, Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer, compared the jobs report to “just another asteroid coming at the markets.”

"Indeed,” Rieder said, “it seems as if there have been very few times in markets where one has to interpret so much disparate, and at times conflicting, data relative to the economy and influences on it.”

Options markets reflect that unease. Traders are piling into VIX call options — a bet on rising volatility — and S&P 500 put options — a bet on further declines — at record levels, according to Apollo’s chief economist, Torsten Slok.

President Trump, though, claims he isn’t paying attention. Last week he said he’s “not even looking at the market.”

Those were his first direct comments about stocks since February 19, when the S&P 500 was 6% higher than Friday’s closing price.

“I think the stock market’s going to be great,” Trump said at the time.

Investors probably wouldn’t mind if he said that again. 

Market snapshot:

Elsewhere:

📉 Stocks futures tumbled overnight, as did cryptocurrency markets, following updates out of Washington DC on tariff negotiations. The New York Fed’s survey of consumers is due out Monday, and on Wednesday the February inflation report comes due.

🚢 Trump is sticking to his steel tariffs. That’s what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this weekend. He doesn’t anticipate a delay on the 25% tariffs for steel and aluminum imports that are scheduled to begin Wednesday. (Bloomberg)

❌ A government shutdown likely won’t impact stocks. Wall Street is bracing for a potential shutdown, which Congress is supposed to decide on before March 14. House Republicans introduced a bill Saturday that would keep the government funded through September 30, but it’s unclear whether it will pass. (Barron’s)

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About me:

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day, unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Feedback? Write me at phil@openingbellmedia.com, reply directly to this email, or ping me on X @philrosenn.