The Fed is banking on the August jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m., to inform whether to make a jumbo-sized rate cut or not. |
Consensus estimates see non-farm payrolls hitting 160,000 in August, up from 114,000 the prior month. |
Unemployment is forecasted to dip from 4.3% to 4.2%. |
However, for better or worse, sizable revisions to jobs numbers have become table stakes. |
That’s why Opening Bell Daily likes to include internal LinkedIn data in our analysis. |
The world’s most robust jobs platform shared exclusive metrics with us that specify which cities and industries are getting hit hardest as hiring decelerates. |
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The state of the labor market, according to LinkedIn |
| Made with AI by Opening Bell Daily |
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LinkedIn’s data points to a weaker labor market than the consensus view based on government reports. |
Kory Kantenga, head of economics for the Americas at LinkedIn, said the platform’s data has shown deterioration in hiring and quits all summer. |
Healthcare and government jobs have accounted for most of the job growth. |
The following chart breaks down LinkedIn’s Hiring rate by industry. |
Platform metrics show the overall Hiring Rate has slowed 7.9% in the 12 months up to July. |
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“A collapse in gains in Local Government and Leisure and Hospitality contributed heavily to April’s slowdown in payroll expansion, and ongoing gains in Government and Healthcare and Social Assistance prevented a complete collapse in gains in July,” Kantenga said. |
Notably, the establishment report this week showed a decrease in government job openings from June to July, as the chart from LinkedIn’s Kantenga shows. |
However, LinkedIn’s Hiring Rate for government roles did move lower in that stretch. |
| Source: LinkedIn |
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Zooming in on the last 12 months, tech and media jobs have been the standout, accelerating 7.2% from July 2023 to July 2024. |
All other sectors have been down or flat. |
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That said, the tech and media industry has yet to return within range of pre-pandemic levels. |
Neither have finance, retail, manufacturing, or food services. |
Hiring trends also vary by geography. Among the top 19 US metros, only five currently see hiring at the typical pre-pandemic level, according to LinkedIn data: |
Nashville, Tennessee Dallas, Texas Austin, Texas Phoenix, Arizona Miami, Florida
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While hiring has indeed slowed, individuals are still using LinkedIn to apply for jobs as aggressively as ever. |
LinkedIn members are applying for jobs 9% more aggressively than last year, according to data up to June 2024. |
That figure is also up 40% since June 2021, when tracking began. |
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And LinkedIn’s Separate Rate shows the share of people leaving jobs has slowed compared to last year. |
This suggests people are having a harder time landing new opportunities or that they are reluctant to switch companies. |
This metric is similar to quit rates, though it is better at tracking voluntary quits rather than people getting laid off or fired. |
It has been largely flat this summer. |
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We hope you enjoyed this analysis, created in collaboration with LinkedIn. If you have comments or feedback, you can reply directly to this email, or share your thoughts on X and tag @philrosenn. |
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Interview |
Investor Anthony Pompliano and I discuss why the stock market is selling off, Kamala Harris’ capital gains tax proposal, and historic government spending: |
| Why Bitcoin & Stocks Are Crashing (And What To Do) |
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Elsewhere: |
🇺🇸Trump shared more details on his tariffs plan in a speech Thursday at the Economic Club of New York. The former president said if he’s elected he could implement even higher duties than previously mentioned. He also endorsed a government efficiency commission — first recommended by Elon Musk — and spoke of lowering the federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. (Yahoo Finance) |
💰️Broadcom has big AI plans. The stock has gained 75% over the last year, and it announced a strong earnings beat on Thursday. Executives say the company intends to sell a record $12 billion worth of AI parts and custom chips for the fiscal year of 2024. (CNBC) |
🛢️Oil keeps slumping. Brent crude, the international crude benchmark, is down roughly 8% this week and set for one of its biggest weekly losses all year. OPEC+ will delay a planned increase in output by two months, and other signs of poor demand have emerged across Chinese and Indian markets. (Bloomberg) |
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Last thing: |
| Nick Bunker @nick_bunker | |
| The labor market is clearly cooler than its pre-pandemic temperature. The ratio of unemployed workers to openings is at its lowest level since May 2021 and below its 2019 average. | |
| | 2:07 PM • Sep 4, 2024 | | |
| 69 Likes 14 Retweets | 9 Replies |
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