| | | | Thursday, March 28, 2024 | | The MLB offseason is long and dreary, and this one felt especially long and dreary thanks to a Hot Stove season that never really heated up outside of Chavez Ravine. But we got through it, and now, at long last, Opening Day is here. | | And there's so much to be excited about this season. There's the super team the Dodgers put together. There's Oneil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz, the Spider-Man meme of shortstops who are about to absolutely run roughshod over the league. There's Cole Ragans and Tarik Skubal, the twin lefties of the AL Central who might duke it out for the AL Cy Young. There are potentially three guys who could steal 70 bases this season in Ronald Acuña, Esteury Ruiz, and Victor Scott. There's the Aaron Judge/Juan Soto combo, a duo that could stand out even in the illustrious history of the Yankees. | | We've spent the past few months in this newsletter giving you daily advice for your Fantasy drafts, and I sincerely hope we helped you build a team you're happy with on Opening Day. But the work is only beginning. All that speculating and prognosticating and projecting has led us here, but your Opening Day roster isn't going to be the same one you have when you're battling for a championship this summer. | | There are going to be plenty of waiver-wire targets to bid on and trades to consider starting with today's action, and we'll have everything you need to stay up to date on everything right here in your inbox every Monday through Friday from now until the end of the season. But there will be plenty of time for that. | | Today, we're taking one last stab at predicting what's going to happen in 2024. But we're not giving you the same boring old, "most-likely scenario" type predictions today. No, today is our chance to plant some flags and to make our boldest calls of the preseason. We're going for accuracy the rest of the preseason, but today, we're giving you our most outlandish predictions that we think might still come true anyways. | | I've got bold predictions from the whole FBT staff today, along with award predictions, division winners, and our official, locked-in World Series previews. We'll get a bunch of the stuff you see below wrong -- that's the nature of the exercise. But, what we get right? Well, those might just be the storylines that define this season. | | Happy Opening Day! | | | | Chris Towers' Season Prediction | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | | Oneil Cruz finishes as the No. 1 SS in Fantasy | | Cruz would probably need to cut his strikeout rate below 30% to have a chance for, say, a .270 average – in 276 plate appearances across one and a half months of MLB games and two springs since September of 2022, he's struck out 27.9% of the time. That's not proof of anything, but it's a nice start. He probably needs a ton of volume, which he'll get as the leadoff hitter for the Pirates ; even in a mediocre lineup, their leadoff spot got 743 plate appearances. And he needs to both hit for power, which we expect, and run a decent amount, and it's the latter that is hardest to project. But Cruz's 162-game pace as a major-leaguer has seen him hit 31 homers with 21 stolen bases, so it's certainly possible. Could he push to 35-30? Could he score 110 runs? That's all within the realm of possibility, kind of like a super-charged version of Francisco Lindor. This was one of my bold predictions last season, but that fractured ankle nine games into the season got in the way. We're going back to the well. | | Jesus Luzardo is not a top-three Marlins SP in Fantasy | | I don't really have anything against Luzardo, but everytime it got to the part of the draft where it's time to take him, I could never quite bring myself to pull the trigger. He's a good source of strikeouts, but he also has a long history of injuries, and 2023 was the first time he's ever thrown more than 125 innings, so that's not a bet I want to make. But this is also as much about the presence of a whole bunch of intriguing, but flawed, pitchers on the Marlins roster. Will it be Eury Perez, making a return from elbow inflammation in April to become the ace we hoped he could be? Could it be A.J. Puk dominating in his return to the rotation with a killer four-pitch mix? There's plenty of intrigue surrounding Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer, and Ryan Weathers, plus Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garret, who are projected to be back sometime in April from their shoulder injuries. There are a lot of ways this bold prediction could come true. | | | | Mitch Garver is the No. 1 catcher in Fantasy | | Would you take a .251 average, 87 runs, 90 RBI, and 37 homers from your catcher? You bet you would. That's what Garver has averaged on a per-162-game basis since his 2019 breakout, and he was even a hair better than that in 2023. Obviously, staying healthy has been a huge problem for Garver, but I'm hoping that having the opportunity to serve as a designated hitter on a more or less full-time basis for the Mariners will go a long way toward helping him stay on the field. If it does, I think there's a pretty good chance we're talking about Garver as the best hitting catcher in baseball in 2024 – before he potentially loses catcher eligibility for 2025. But hey, we'll worry about that if and when it happens. | | Bonus: Giancarlo Stanton hits 40-plus homers | | I couldn't help myself. I haven't talked about Stanton much this preseason, but he remains one of my absolute favorite players in the game. When he's right, he's an absolute force of nature, and even in 2023, in much-diminished form, Stanton still led the majors with 15 batted balls of at least 115 mph; up that to 118 mph, and he was the only player in the league with more than two such batted balls. Stanton has four guaranteed years left on his contract and 98 homers left to get to 500 for his career, so he's probably going to need one more big season to get there and have a chance at the Hall of Fame. And he knows it, having come into camp much slimmer than he's been in a long time, with the hopes of keeping himself on the field and getting back to crushing baseballs. He hit .317/.370/.659 with just six strikeouts in 46 plate appearances this spring, and I want to believe. | | One MLB Bold Prediction | | Victor Scott leads the majors in stolen bases | | Coming off a season where he swiped 94 bases in 132 games (with an 87% success rate), the bold part of this isn't really about Scott's skills as a baserunner. It's about whether he'll hit well enough to force the Cardinals to keep him in the lineup when the three center field alternatives who got hurt during the spring are healthy enough to play. He hasn't played above Double-A, and was mostly good, but not great across both levels of the minors in 2023, with a 117 wRC+ at High-A and 119 at Double-a – solidly above-average, but not necessarily so good that you expect him to hit the ground running in the majors. But I do think the combination of Scott's plate discipline and contact skills (14.5% strikeout rate at Double-A last season), speed, and bunting ability (17 bunt hits last season) could help him slap his way to enough offense to let the baserunning and defense to make him an above-average regular. And if that happens, well, we might see 70-plus steals. | | | | Award Picks | | American League | | AL Rookie of the Year: Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers – No need to fade the chalk here. If Langford is playing DH full-time, it could make it tough for him to post impressive WAR numbers, but who am I to bet against the guy who has been the best hitter in every league he's played in since he was a sophomore in college? AL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles – I toyed with making "Corbin Burnes is the No. 1 pitcher in Fantasy" one of my bold predictions, but I think the only way that really happens is if Spencer Strider gets hurt. But Burnes should be a close second after his move to Baltimore, where Orioles pitches have a 3.77 ERA over the two seasons since they moved the fences in, compared to a 4.11 mark on the road in the same span. Burnes is already one of the best pitchers in the game, and now he's got a great home park to boost him. I think he runs away with this one. AL MVP: Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians – We were on CBS Sports Network Wednesday afternoon to preview the season, and I went with the chalk pick there: Juan Soto . But the more I thought about it, the more I realized I want to go with Ramirez for his first MVP. He's been top five in the AL in WAR every season since 2017 except for two (once, he was sixth), and he plays on a team with a pretty good chance to win its division. In a relatively wide-open race, I'll go with Ramirez finally getting over the hump. | | National League | | NL Rookie of the Year: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Dodgers – There's a rookie pitcher who just got the biggest contract ever for a pitcher, so yeah, I'm gonna go with that guy. Yes, even after he gave up five runs in one inning in his debut. NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider, SP, Braves – I don't know how much of Strider's relative struggles last season were bad luck, but I do think he's the best starting pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis, he's probably the most likely to win 20-plus games, and might get to 300 strikeouts. NL MVP: Ronald Acuña, OF, Braves – Coming off the season Acuña just had, I'm pretty much at the point where, like Mike Trout in the last decade, it's going to take someone having a historic season to topple Acuña. Any pick but him is just trying too hard. | | Standings predictions | | American League | | AL East Winner: Orioles – I think it's reasonable to expect some regression from the Orioles, who outperformed their pythagorean record by seven games last season. But with Burnes added to the rotation and the top prospect in baseball waiting in the wings, I think internal improvements probably propel them close to triple digits in wins again. AL Central Winner: Guardians – Ramirez is going to bounce back. Bo Naylor is going to be one of the best catchers in baseball. They've got Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo waiting for the call as potential impact bats. And they should still have great pitching. AL West Winner: Astros – They've failed to win the AL West exactly once since 2016. How could you justify any other pick, even if it does feel like the end has to be coming sooner or later for this core. Wild Cards: Yankees, Rangers, Rays – The Rays are going to figure out a way to get to the playoffs again. Whether their [stuff] will work in the playoffs one of these years remains to be seen, but they'll get there again. | | National League | | NL East Winner: Braves – I'm trying to figure out what series of circumstances would have to occur for the Braves to not win this division this season, and I can't come up with anything short of them being banned from the league for some reason. NL Central Winner: Cardinals – The vibes were rotten for the Cardinals last season, but I'm expecting much better things. They didn't add any superstars in free agency, but I think they stabilized their rotation, and better seasons from their stars – including soon-to-be star Jordan Walker – will help propel them back to the top of an admittedly mediocre division. NL West Winner: Dodgers – They've got three legitimate MVP candidates, plus contingency plans on top of contingency plans in the rotation. Wild Cards: Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants – The Diamondbacks did well to add Jordan Montgomery at the last minute, which should help offset some natural regression. The Giants are kind of a surprise here, but they had a sneaky-good offseason and have a chance to take a big step forward. Don't forget about Luis Matos as a potential difference maker in the outfield. | | World Series | | Dodgers over Orioles – I think the Orioles are probably a starter away from making a real World Series run, but either Grayson Rodriguez will emerge as that or they'll go out and get another ace at the deadline with their horde of high-minors hitters. As for the Dodgers? Well, no team is built more with October in mind, and I'm going to have a hard time betting against them if their pitching is at all intact by then. | | Frank Stampfl's Season Predictions | | Host of Fantasy Baseball Today | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits 40 home runs and will be drafted in the top three rounds of Fantasy drafts next year. He hit 33 home runs last season between the minors and majors and finished the season really strong. Given the secured playing time, 70-grade power and Great American Ballpark, I think Encarnacion-Strand can pull this off.
Bobby Miller is the most valuable Dodgers pitcher this season. The parlay bold predictions are a little tougher to achieve but you can squint and see how this happens. Tyler Glasnow misses time to injury, it takes Yoshinobu Yamamoto longer to acclimate to Major League Baseball and Miller takes the next step many think he will.
Michael Harris outperforms Ronald Acuña this season. No doubt this is the boldest of the three. There are a few things at play here. First, Harris just had a great spring, hitting .333 with three homers and three steals. Second, Acuña would undoubtedly have to miss time for this to happen. I think that's entirely possible. I know he's returned from the meniscus irritation but the fact that it's the same knee he had surgery on, has me ever-so-slightly worried.
| | One MLB Bold Prediction | The Pittsburgh Pirates win the NL Central. No, I didn't pick them in my division winners but I can see it happening! Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Henry Davis have the breakout seasons we think they're capable of. Jared Jones puts together an impressive rookie season. They stick around long enough to promote Paul Skenes in May and boom, they have their ace! It helps that the NL Central feels wide open entering the season.
| | American League | | AL East Winner: Orioles AL Central Winner: Tigers AL West Winner: Astros Wild Cards: Yankees, Rangers, Mariners | | National League | | NL East Winner: BravesNL Central Winner: Cubs NL West Winner: Dodgers Wild Cards: Phillies, Diamondbacks, Giants |
World Series | | Phillies over Astros | | Award Picks | | American League | | AL Rookie of the Year: Wyatt Langford AL Cy Young: Cristian JavierAL MVP: Julio Rodriguez | | Award Picks | | National League | | NL Rookie of the Year: Yoshinobu Yamamoto NL MVP: Mookie Betts NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler | | Scott White's Season Predictions | | Fantasy Baseball Today co-host, CBS Sports Senior Fantasy Writer | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty are both top-five Cy Young finishers. We're turning back the clock to 2019, baby. The old aces are new again. Both Bieber and Flaherty both saw their velocity return to levels not seen since their heyday and have offered insights as to how it's happened, which to me makes it more trustworthy.
No more than four of the catchers drafted in the top 10 will finish in the top 10. In all likelihood, Adley Rutschman, William Contreras and Will Smith will, and I wanted to give myself wiggle room with one other. But the point is the position is absolutely stacked, and no one should be surprised if any of Bo Naylor, Logan O'Hoppe, Mitch Garver, Henry Davis, Jonah Heim, Gabriel Moreno or a handful of others forces his way into the top 10.
From the time he returns from a fractured finger to the end of the season, Jonathan Aranda is the most valuable hitter on the Rays. The guy slashed .339/.449/.613 in the minors last year. His exit velocities are excellent. His plate discipline is even better. He was on fire this spring before the injury. He's someone you should consider stashing even though he wasn't drafted widely.
| | One MLB Bold Prediction | No one in the Dodgers starting rotation now is there for the start of the second half. With apologies to Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Bobby Miller, who are the two most likely to be in the rotation at the start of the half, the Dodgers have an incredible rotation surplus and a lot of workload risks. They're going to be swapping out pitchers all season long, and by that point, Walker Buehler, Emmet Sheehan and perhaps even Clayton Kershaw should all be healthy.
| | American League | | AL East Winner: Orioles AL Central Winner: Tigers AL West Winner: Astros Wild Cards: Rays, Rangers, Yankees | | National League | | NL East Winner: BravesNL Central Winner: Cubs NL West Winner: Dodgers Wild Cards: Phillies, Padres, Reds |
World Series | | Braves over Orioles | | Award Picks | | American League | | AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter AL MVP: Juan Soto AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal | | Award Picks | | National League | | NL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Chourio NL MVP: Ronald Acuna NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider | R.J. White's Season Predictions
| | CBS Fantasy Editor | | Three Fantasy Bold Predictions | Wyatt Langford delivers first-round value. Some prospects are just built different, and Langford appears to be in that category after seeming completely unchallenged at every level of the minors last year in his first professional season. It was more of the same in spring training, where he's hit six homers and made the pitchers he faced look like SEC competition. He's going to run away with AL Rookie of the Year and might even draw MVP consideration in his first season.Yoshinobu Yamamoto finishes outside the top 50 at SP. I'll be straight with you; I've bet Yamamoto to win NL Rookie of the Year and expect he's going to be pretty good in MLB. But I believe he has a wider range of outcomes than most pitchers who have been stateside their entire careers, and it's entirely possible he doesn't live up to the hype and is just a serviceable mid-rotation type of guy. He's someone I didn't draft at all this year due to his elevated price, so I'll boldy predict him to fall well short of returning value.
Luis Campusano finishes as a top-five catcher. Campusano looked great after returning from injury in the second half of last season, and I'm excited to see what he can do as the full-time starter. He looked great in the second game of the Seoul Series, smacking two RBI doubles with a man on second, adding another single and driving a ball deep to center field that ended up an out. At a position like catcher, he could quickly deliver vintage J.T. Realmuto type production if what we saw last season was real at all.
| | One MLB Bold Prediction | | Cardinals win the NL Central. Last year in this space, I predicted the Orioles would go from 16 games back to division winners, and they made it happen. This year, I'm going to back a Cardinals team that finished 21 games back and in last place (behind the Pirates!) to do the same. Oliver Marmol proved in his first season he has what it takes to be a winning manager in the league, and I love everything but the starting pitching, which does have some interesting prospects on the doorstep. This team might be a Jordan Montgomery away from taking down the NL Central. | | American League | | AL East Winner: RaysAL Central Winner: GuardiansAL West Winner: RangersWild Cards: Astros, Orioles, Yankees | | National League | | NL East Winner: BravesNL Central Winner: CardinalsNL West Winner: DodgersWild Cards: Padres, Phillies, Cubs |
World Series | | Braves over Astros | | Award Picks | | American League | | AL Rookie of the Year: Wyatt LangfordAL Cy Young: Tarik SkubalAL MVP: Yordan Alvarez | | Award Picks | | National League | | NL Rookie of the Year: Jackson ChourioNL Cy Young: Ronald AcunaNL MVP: Spencer Strider | | | | | | | | |
|
|
